Update On That Big, Maybe Dangerous Northeast Storm That's Coming

Storm surges and battering waves batter the Massachusetts
coast in early January. The upcoming storm might create
similar scenes in New England Friday and Saturday

I was working outdoors in my yard in far northwestern Vermont on Tuesday, down to a t-shirt and getting an early jump on preliminary spring cleanup.

It was sunny and warm, like a nice day in April. Daffodil shoots are starting to come up.  

In February!

I shouldn't get used to this. Neither should you.

An oncoming storm, though not particularly cold, has the potential to raise havoc across the Northeast, including perhaps Vermont. And this will introduce a long period of normal March weather going well into the middle of March at least.

The biggest concern, of course, is this big storm, which has long been advertised.  There's still LOTS of uncertainty with how this storm will play out on Friday. It's Wednesday, so usually we have a moderately good handle on how storms will behave two days from now. But this one is so complex, a  lot of things could change before it arrives.

Computer models yesterday suppressed the storm a bit to the south, which would have minimized impacts here in Vermont while continuing to make things bad along the coast from New Jersey into southern New England.

This morning, the models have the storm further north, which puts at least parts of Vermont in play, while continuing to threaten lots of bad things along the southern New England, Long Island, New Jersey and Mid-Atlantic coasts.

Today, the storm will be organizing across the South and Gulf Coast, threatening more heavy rain in regions that got deluged over the past week or two. Flood watches are up from northeast Texas and Arkansas on up into Kentucky and Tenneseee.

There could be severe thunderstorms and maybe a tornado or two today in northeast Texas, northern Louisiana and parts of Arkansas.

The storm will move from the southern Plains to near the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday night, while a secondary storm will form off or near the New Jersey coast.

The coastal storm will become the main player. It will strengthen and move very slowly near the coast Friday before lumbering slowly offshore later Friday and Saturday.

With astronomical tides being high this week, with or without a storm, this storm is still expected to cause a bunch of coastal flooding.

The southern New England coast and parts of Long Island appear to be especially under the gun with coastal flooding, and coastal flood watches are already in effect for Friday and Saturday.

There could be major coastal flooding in certain places especially around Gloucester, Newburyport, Boston Harbor, Revere and Scituate, Massachusetts. It's possible things could get so bad that shoreline homes could be badly damaged or destroyed. At the very least, roads and streets will become inundated, and basements and first floors could get flooded.

Areas along the coast are also at risk for very strong winds with this system. Also, several inches of rain might fall in southern New England as well. Wet snow might fall inland.

VERMONT IMPACTS

With the coastal storm now seeming like it wants to hug the coast more and be a little further north than yesterday's forecasts, it now looks like parts of Vermont are under the gun for some trouble with this storm.

There's already a winter storm watch up for western and central New York for the initial storm that will come up to the Great Lakes, followed by Atlantic moisture streaming in from the new, stronger low along the coast. These areas could see five to nine inches of wet snow out of this.

In Vermont, it still looks like the greatest effects will be in southern and central parts of the state, though all of Vermont looks like it will get some precipitation.

There isn't a lot of cold air for this storm to work with, but once a strong storm forms, it creates its own pool of chillier air, and that might be enough to change rain in some parts of Vermont to wet snow.

This is one tricky forecast, and what happens depends on the exact placement of the storm, the timing, and the amount of cooling aloft. There is the potential, anyway, of heavy wet snow, especially in the mid and higher elevations of the southern and central Green Mountains.  The wet snow, combined with expected strong and gusty east winds could really create some power failure problems in the southern half of Vermont.

Speaking of wind, this might be a good set up for especially strong and damaging winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially in the southern half of the state.

Another thing to watch out for: Especially if the marginal temperatures between snow and rain stay a little on the warm side, there might be enough rain in parts of Vermont to cause some flooding potential. Again, the greatest risk is in central and southern Vermont.

Things could change, but northern Vermont looks like it will have unpleasant weather Friday, with rain, snow, or a mix and some gusty winds. However, if the forecast trend to bring the storm further and further north, the top half of Vermont could also see some real problems with this system.

This forecast is based on what the National Weather Service is saying. They almost guarantee, as do I, that there will be shifts in the forecast as we get closer to the actual storm. The system is a meteorologist's headache, with lots of moving parts, and it has a high bust potential.