Monday, February 19, 2018

This Could Be Vermont's Four Really Off The Rails Weather February In A Row

Day lillies bizarrely begin to sprout during all time
record February warmth last year. 
Forecasts for midweek in Vermont tell us  we'll be seeing temperatures in the 60s to around 70 by Wednesday in most of the state, which is really incredible for February. In fact, it would be unprecedented if not for last year.

If the forecast comes true, it'll make if the fourth February in a row that has rewritten, or at least altered, record books. One of those Februarys, 2015, was very cold. The other three are seeing record heat.

Let's get 2015 out of the way. It was a brutal February, the third coldest on record with a mean temperature of 7.6 degrees. That's nearly 14 degrees below normal. There were no extremely cold nights that month, nothing in the 20s to near 30 below zero.

But the cold was grindingly consistent. In Burlington, 17 of the 28 days that month had temperatures below zero.

Subsequent Februarys turn hot. The first week of February, 2016 saw record highs in the 50s. That week is normally the depth of winter, but I recall working in my garden, digging completely unfrozen ground as I prepared new perennial beds.  I'm so far north that I can literally see Canada from my house.  So that was a new experience.

February, 2016 ended up being the 9th warmest on record. It would have averaged even higher if not for a brief Valentine's weekend cold snap that brought temperatures into the teens below zero before readings quickly recovered.

February, 2016 brought heavy rains, too. Places like Hardwick and Springfield Vermont saw several buildings and businesses damaged by flooding. Rainfall in one storm that month amounted to as much as 2.8 inches in just over 24 hours. That's nearly double the amount of precipitation that usually falls in an entire February.

Garden work in far northern Vermont in umfrozen ground
early February 2016. At that time of year, the earth should
have been frozen rock hard with snow covering it, but
record heat changed that scenario. 
Then there was the piece de resistance, February, 2017, which really, really went off the rails. By the 23rd of the month, Burlington reached 63 degrees, breaking the old all-time record high for February of 62.

But we were just warming up. Literally. On the 25th, Burlington reached 72 degrees, shattering the monthly record. It was also 72 in Bennington during that hot spell, so both figures now stand as the warmest readings on record for anywhere in Vermont.

The warmth was so extreme that severe weather came all the way north into New England. It was so weird the first February tornado on record in Massachusetts damaged homes in the western part of the state.

Now we're waiting to see how weird this week gets. We'll keep an eye on it for sure!

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