Tropical Vermont In February Continues For (Part Of) Today

Here's something I thought I'd never see. A forecast
map issued by the National Weather Service office in
South Burlington, Vermont forecasting high
temperatures today - in mid- February - in the
low 70s across western Vermont. 

Just a quick update this morning as I've got an early meeting.  

That strange February heat wave has arrived and records are already falling. It was more than a little bizarre this morning to take the dogs outside this morning in far northern Vermont comfortably wearing shorts and a t-shirt. In Vermont! In February!

Before midnight, Burlington, Vermont had a record high for the date of 59 degrees.

Before dawn this morning, it was already 61 degrees in Burlington, a record high for today, and the temperature will keep rising before a cold front comes in this afternoon.

It's actually too bad the front is coming when it is. Had it held off until evening, the temperatures would really climb. Still, this heat wave is unprecedented, in an era when we're having unprecedented heat waves now once every few months or more. (Examples: Remember the four days of 90 degree heat in late September, during the autumn? and the 70 degree heat at the end of February last year?)

By the way 61 degrees at 5 a.m. in Burlington is exactly normal for that time of day in mid-July, the peak of summer. Today's forecast highs, in the 60s, with a few low 70s possible in southwestern Vermont, are normal for late May.

If it reaches 70 degrees in Vermont today, this will be the third winter in a row that the Green Mountain State has seen 70 degree readings during both the winter.  That's never happened before.

The flood watch is still in effect for today for most of Vermont and northern New York as the snow is rapidly melting, rivers are rising and ice jams are holding in place. As of dawn, I haven't seen many flood warnings in the region yet, but I have a feeling that will change soon. There was an ice jam on the Ausable River in New York that prompted flood warnings for awhile overnight.

The only good news regarding the flood watch is that although there will be showers around with the cold front this afternoon, those rains won't be particularly heavy and they won't last all that long in any particular spot.

After today, it's back to winter reality in Vermont with temperatures tonight bottoming out near 20 degrees by dawn and rising to only the low 30s Thursday afternoon. Which is normal for this time of year.

Beyond that, we're still in a weather pattern in which there's a strong ridge of warm high pressure to out southeast and cold air over the continent. That will drive a few  modest storm systems by us through the weekend.

It'll be warm enough so that most of the precipitation will be rain, but snow will mix in at times. There will be some light accumulations in the mountains, but not remotely enough to replace what was lost in this heat wave.

While we Vermonters are basking in summer warmth for at least part of today, freezing rain in the middle of the country extends as far south as central Texas.  

A conveyor belt of deep moisture and heavy rain that started a couple days ago continues to run from northeast Texas to the Great Lakes.

Flood warnings and watches continue to extend from Texas to Michigan. Some areas have had up to five inches of rain already. Another six or seven inches of rain or locally more is forecast over the next several days in and near Arkansas, so flooding will continue to spread and get worse.