Godawful Mess Coming To New England Friday And Saturday: Get Ready

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
has this first guess of snow accumulations late
Friday night through Saturday. Orange areas
coudl get five to as much as 12 inches of snow

Well, this has surely been a super active to start to the new year both nationally and around here in New England, and it shows no signs of letting up.

Another lousy mess of a storm is coming and this one could really be disruptive.

If you live in the Northeast, including almost anywhere in New England, including here in Vermont, expect heavy rain, flooding, dangerous ice accumulations and/or heavy snow, depending on exactly where you live.

I'll tease out the details, as they stand now, after I get into the big picture here, so we can understand what's going on.

One wave of the storm is already causing locally  heavy snow, strong winds, blowin snow and even some blizzard conditions to parts of the northern Plains. High winds are buffeting the central and southern Plains.

Wave Two is about to start getting its act together near the Gulf Coast, and this is the one that will spread a variety of misery from Tennessee through New England and southeastern Canada.

This storm has a lot of wet air to reinforce it as it draws tons of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Thus, floods risks and heavy preciptiation will make its way north from the Tennessee Valley into New England.

National Weather Service forecasts for ice accumulation
later Friday night and Saturday. Areas in orange and
especially red are at risk for damage to trees and
power lines. 

This Thursday morning, we're starting out with our well-advertised January thaw, as temperatures by mid morning were already 40 degrees or a little higher than that. Temperatures will climb well into the 40s today, stay there tonight, and maybe touch 50 for a time on Friday.

No forecaster that I've seen is expecting much in the way of precipitation today, so you're safe. There could be a light rain shower around, but don't get too excited about that.

The rain moves in overnight tonight and continues through most of Friday in New England and eastern New York.

This will occur as the main body of the storm approaches us. Meanwhile, a blast of quite cold air will be rushing in from the west and north to intercept this storm.

The result will be a variety of potentially dangerous weather, and also an exceptionally tricky forecast. I still think no matter how good National Weather Service meteorologists and other New England professionals are, there is still a potential for some forecast busts in parts of the region.

That said, you should be prepared for some rough weather, because broad brush, that appears to be a given.

The rain Friday could cause a few problems with flooding and ice jams across northern New York, and the northern two thirds of Vermont, and New Hampshire, but at this point, the feeling is those kinds of issues won't be too widespread. The existing snow cover will absorb some of the rain.

Southern New England - including the southernmost two counties in Vermont, is in the crosshairs for flooding, however. The rain will be heavier down there - potentially as much as four inches of it by Saturday. Add to that the snowmelt from the snowstorms over the past week and clogged drains and ice from the recent frigid weather and you've got yourself a real problem. Temperatures as high as 60 degrees in southeastern New England would make the snow melt very fast, too.

 Further north, the thinking among the meteorologists who are much smarter than me suggest the cold air will fully engulf the storm in a stripe through the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, the central and northern Adirondacks, maybe the northwestern tip of Vermont near St. Albans, and southern Quebec could get quite a bit of snow out of this

As the cold air rushes in to these areas Friday night, precipitation will probably go through a period of freezing rain Friday night, but the ice accumulation likely won't be bad enough to cause widespread problems with downed trees and power lines. The snow is forecast to continue through the day Saturday, with perhaps five to 12 inches of new accumulation, possibly locally more in these areas.

Now, in central and southern Vermont, central New Hampshire, parts of Maine, and the Capital District of New York, it's beginning to look like a battle line will form between the cold air rushing in from the northwest, and the warm, humid air the storm is bringing from the south.

The cold air will undercut the warm air, but milder air will likely remain in a layer above that. All this sets the stage for the risk the the freezing rain will last many hours Friday night and Saturday, and accumulate enough to wreck branches and trees and do a number on the power lines. Be prepared for power failures in these areas with this storm.

Be aware, the areas expecting the most snow, or the most ice could shift with subsequent forecasts. Nobody is really out of the woods at this point

As you might expect, winter storm watches are up for all of Vermont and eastern New York. 

What makes this worse is the cold, Arctic air will eventually flood in as the storm departs Saturday night. The upcoming cold wave probably won't be quite as bad as what we saw earlier this month. However, with high temperatures just near 10 on Sunday and in the single numbers to low teens below zero Sunday night, power outages can be especially dangerous.

So yeah, we have a good mess on our hands, it looks like. Plus, there might be another storm around Tuesday, but that one definitely looks weaker and the precipitation would come down as all snow. And the snow - at least from now - looks like it will be on the light side. However, if things get together just right, the Tuesday or Wednesday storm could overachieve, Stay tuned!