Wednesday Evening Big Storm Update: A Little More Intense Yet

You don't see this everyday: They
were able to make little snowmen in
Tallahassee, Florida today.

So far, as of Wednesday evening, the trend has continued to keep ever so slowly nudging the expected path of the gigantic nor'easter further and further to the west, or at least basically putting it where we thought it would go this morning.  

I don't know if any new trends in the forecast path will develop,  but for now, the impacts of this storm on New England and to a lesser extent Vermont look to be even a little more extreme than we thought this morning.

It's already a mess in the Southeast, if you haven't already heard. Freezing rain in normally mild cities like Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina has changed to snow and is piling up. You really can't drive anywhere down there, as they don't have the equipment to deal with a rare and nasty winter storm such as this.

Tallahassee, Florida measured 0.1 inches of snow today, the first measureable snow that city has seen since 1989.

Up north, expected snowfall amounts have ticked upward for most of New England, except the extreme east. In southeastern New England and especially Cape Cod and the islands, the westward nudge in the expected track of this vast nor'easter will enable rain or mixed precipitation to temporarily get in there before the Arctic cold comes blasting back.

There's been no change in the worry over coastal flooding, especially on north and east facing shores of Massachusetts. Moderate to major coastal flooding is still a good bet in many areas tomorrow. Battering waves will make things worse, as will chunks of ice left over from this past week's frigid temperatures.

You don't see this everyday, either. Downtown Charleston,
South Carolina today.

As temperatures fall, freezing spray will coat buildings, possibly causing even a little more structural damage. Storm surge flooding in some areas could freeze in place, leaving some neighborhoods encased in thick ice along the coast.

Power failures in eastern New England because of the strong winds remain a huge concern, since temperatures will head below zero Friday and Saturday. A foot or more of snow is now a good bet in much of eastern and central New England away from the coast. The bigger problem will be enormous amounts of blowing and drifting.

Here in Vermont, conditions will keep getting worse throughout Thursday. Your evening commute is not going to be happy, I know that. Both the snow, the wind and the blowing snow will ramp up through the morning and afternoon as temperatures begin to fall.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont
is taking this shot at expected snowfall amounts from this
storm. Click on the map to make it bigger, easier to see.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has nudged the expected amount of snow up a smidge, with three to eight inches of snow still expected, but a little more is likely east of the Green Mountains. The snow will be terribly hard to measure, given how fluffy it will be and how badly wind blown it will also be.

Plus, the expected snowfall amount is by far the trickiest forecasting aspect of this storm. A band of slightly heavier snow might develop along the western edges of the main storm.

That might or might not put Vermont in a zone of heavy, or least heavy-ish snow for awhile. And nobody has any clue where that heavy-ish band of snow does get going in Vermont, if it does at all.

Regardless, expect mega drifts with this one, so even when the snow tapers off Friday, the drifts will still keep reappearing on roads almost instantaneously.

Yes, it's not a huge amount of snow, but the drifting, and the fact that it's going to be so cold will make it worse. Salt does not work in subzero cold. Neither does equipment, or humans for that matter. So getting rid of the snow will be more difficult than it normally would be for a moderate dump.  

Friday morning, subzero temperatures, lingering light snow and a lot of blowing and drifting, plus black ice on the roads, will surely make few Vermonters happy.

Forecasts for the temperature profile, such as it is, haven't changed much. It'll be in the teens to low 20s below zero late Friday and early Saturday, with wind chills as low as 50 below.

Actual temperatures early Sunday morning still look like they'll be in the 20s and 30s below zero across most of Vermont. Can anyone say frozen pipes?

This harsh winter now looks like it will continue beyond this weekend. More snow is a good bet next Monday and Tuesday, but we don't know how much yet. We're still looking at much warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday (20s to low 30s look awesome at this point, don't they?)

It's also looking like another Arctic blast will come down on us during the second half of next week. Though it probably won't be as bad as what's coming over the next few days, it will still be annoying, with nightime lows well below zero again.

Sigh.