Wild Weather Ride In Vermont, Northeast Through Tomorrow

Thirty-six hours ago, there was close to a foot of snow on
the ground in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. After our
mega thaw over the past 24 hours, it's mostly back. And
tonight and tomorrow, most of the lost snow is forecast
to be replaced by a new winter storm. 

I was stunned when I got up at my St. Albans home, in northwestern Vermont when I got up this morning.  

There was nearly a foot of snow on the ground here early Wednesday morning. Virtually all of it is gone this morning.

The tempeature when I went outside with the dogs was in the low 50s, nearly 80 degrees warmer than what it was when I took the dogs out this past Sunday morning.

If you think that is wild, the dizzying swings in weather and temperature are only just beginning.

Flood watches that were in effect for southern and central New England have been extended north today all the way through Vermont. It's warmer out there than some forecasters thought, and a big slug of rain was moving into the state early this morning.

River us is starting to break up, and there's a real threat of ice jams and flooding upstream from those jams into early Saturday morning. Already, as of 8 a.m. a flood warning was up for the Ausable River in the Adirondacks as heavy rain had already moved in there. Melting snow and the likelihood of ice jams prompted that warning

The weather will remain very trying to say the least through Saturday, and beyond, really. Near record highs today - just four days after the record lows last Sunday - are still expected to be replaced by heavy snow, dangerous icing conditions and another blast of Arctic air.

Latest snowfall foredast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. Heaviest snow still
looks like it will be to the northwest, (yellow and orange
colors) with four to ten inches there.

(No wonder I had to call in sick to work today: This yo-yo weather is enough to make anybody ill.)

It was remarkably warm this morning. Bennington, and Rutland, Vermont were up to 58 degrees already as of 8 a.m. Burlington was at 54, just one degree shy of the record high for the date. Normally frigid Massena, New York, in the northwestern corner of that state, touched 58 early this morning.  

The temperatures will stay mild through much of the day, along with the moderate to heavy rain hence the flood warning.

Many areas will get an inch of rain today. A few places might close in on two inches. In southern New England, where flood watches are also up, there could even be thunderstorms mixed in, adding to the heavy rain totals.

But that Arctic cold front invading the very wet storm that's affecting the Northeast means business. When the front hits wherever you are, you'll know it. The temperature will absolutely drop like a rock.

When the cold air hits your location, the rain will change to freezing rain, then sleet, then snow. Timing depends on when the front reaches you. The best guess is late afternoon in northern New York, evening in Vermont's Champlain Valley, after 7 p.m around Montpelier and closer to 10 p.m. around Rutland. Give or take a couple of hours on all these time estimates.

Could even be tricky for some evening commuters this evening over New York and possibly, just possibly far northwestern Vermont.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service and elsewhere say it still looks like the period of freezing rain and sleet won't last as long in northern New York and northwestern Vermont as it will further south, so I don't expect much in the way of damage to trees or power lines there.

This will be a flash freeze, however. All that water from today's soaking rain will freeze very quickly and remain in place, making a mess out of roads, sidewalks and everything else for that matter.

Further south into southern Vermont and in central New England the risk of power outages and tree damage from ice accumulations continues into Saturday.   Forecasters have backed off just a bit on expected ice accumulations from this storm, but the danger of power trouble is still there.

Forecasted snow amounts haven't changed too much. Four to eight inches is still likely by the end of the day Saturday across northern New York and northwestern Vermont. Progressively less will fall as you head toward the southeast, with total snw accumulations by Saturday evening around four to six inches in central Vermont and as little as an inch in far southern Vermont.

As always, this is subject to change. Especially with this storm. There's such a wide range of temperatures with this over a short distance that any subtle change in the track of the storm could have a big effect on accumulations, and whether you get more snow, freezing rain, or plain rain.

The temperature will keep going down, down, down even after this storm departs. It'll be in the teens at best while it's still snowing on Saturday, and be well below zero by Sunday morning. Many places early Sunday will be close to 10 below, or about 65 degrees colder than this morning.

The wild temperature swings continue. Talk about weather whiplash!

And maybe the storm sytems, too. Computer models are disagreeing about the weather during the upcoming mid-week. The European models dump big snowstorm on New England, including Vermont at midweek. The American models say it's going to snow at midweek, but it won't be a huge deal. Stay tuned on that one.