Worst Cold Wave Yet In Frigid Spell Due Friday

Forecast map depicting the strong storm over the Canadian
Maritimes. Frigid air and strong winds from this over
us in Vermont will make conditions totally brutal.

Once again, it was insanely cold this Tuesday morning, the second of January here in Vermont with ta few "warm" spots in the teens below zero, but most of us in the 20s below. 

Before dawn some spots were ridiculous, and these weren't even the absolute bottom low temperatures for the day. They probably went down a couple degrees.

 But here ya go. At 5 a.m. or so, it was 35 below in Island Pond, Vermont,  31 below in Gallup Mills, Vermont, 30 below in Whitefield, New Hampshire and 27 below in Morrisville, Vermont.

And despite a semi-break in the cold coming up in the next couple of days, believe it or not, we still think the worst is yet to come.

Let's get to the semi-break in the cold first. Temperatures in many areas will rise above zero today and stay above zero until Thursday evening. It'll still be a little cooler than normal through the period, with highs today in the single numbers today and near 20 Wednesday and Thursday, but it won't feel all that bad.

Then the bottom will drop out and it's back to the extreme cold. I still believe this next shot of Arctic air will be worse than what we've experienced so far.

Computer forecasting models have been consistent for days that a storm is about to get going around the Bahamas and become a super intense, vast nor'easter as it moves north well off the coast.

Incredibly, since the storm is forming so far south and the Arctic air is plunging so far south, there is actually a winter storm watch for coastal North Carolina all the way into northern Florida! Places like Lake City, Florida, home of palm trees and relatively balmy weather, might get a nasty ice storm out of this, plus maybe some snow.

In fact, flurries were reported last night as far south as central Florida, including around the city of Titusville.

There has been picky details of how close this monster will come to the coast, which would dictate how much snow and wind the East Coast, particularly New England gets on Thursday.

It continues to look like eastern New England will get a decent snowfall out of this. Here in Vermont, we'll get perhaps an inch or two west with up to five inches in the Northeast Kingdom. The biggest bust potential in this forecast is the amount of snow expected. We'll be on the western edge of the storm's precipitation shield. If it moves a little west, we'll get more snow. I little east, we'll get less.

But the real story here is the wind and the intense cold. This incredible storm will pull down pure Arctic air from Canada as it gets toward Nova Scotia and beyond.

Nova Scotia and other areas of Canada's Maritime Provinces are screwed with this storm. Environment Canada is already alerting residents there to the likelihood of 75 mph winds, storm surge flooding and heavy snow and coastal rain. I would say parts of coastal New England are also at risk for storm surges and damaging winds with this.

Since the storm will be so strong, and the Arctic high pressure to the west will also be very strong, we're going to get high winds along with the intense cold. Temperatures will fall below zero Thursday night or early Friday, and stay there until Sunday afternoon.

Those horrible winds, possibly gusting to 40 mph here in Vermont and elsewhere in New England, will cause terrible, terrible wind chills Friday through Saturday. By Friday evening and night, the actual tempertures will reach the teens below zero, and those relentless winds could bring wind chills to as low as 50 below. Off and on light snow, and blowing snow will complete the misery Friday into early Friday night.

Yep, we're talking Arctic wasteland here in Vermont and it will be dangerous. I worry about frozen pipes from the winds sifting into cracks in our houses. I would definitely postpone outdoor plans for Friday through early Sunday morning. It's just totally not worth it.

I'm glad that this big storm likely won't come closer to us. If it did, the wind would be even stronger, which would lead to power failures. Imagine how dangerous that would be in this intense cold.

The coldest actual temperatures will be late Saturday night into early Sunday, with widepread lows across the region in the 20s below, with several areas probably reaching 30 below.

As far as a ray of  hope goes, here goes: By Sunday afternoon, temperatures should rise above zero, and moderate dramatically to get well into the 20s by next Monday afternoon, although there will be a chance of snow.

There are signs of another brief Arctic blast during the middle of next week, but it won't be as intense as the one coming up, or the one we've experienced the past couple of days. The middle of the month won't necessarily be super warm here in Vermont, but at least it doesn't look like it will be much worse than we usually get in January.