Arctic Siege Ends, Glorious Vermont "Warmth" But New Problems? Also California Deluge

As is my routine, I took the dogs out first thing when I got up before dawn this  morning. Saturday, when the wind chill was ridiculous, the dogs ran outside, did their business and raced back indoors. 

The shades of purple over the Northeast, including Vermont
indicate quite a bit of precipitation over the next seven days,
but will it be rain, snow, mix, other?

This morning, the temperature was a tropical 18 degrees above zero. The dogs luxuriously lingered outside and took plenty of time to play in the snow. I didn't mind. Eighteen degrees isn't exactly warm, but after what we've been through, it felt like a summer heat wave. 

Most weather stations in the Northeast, including Vermont had their coldest or second coldest two weeks centered around New Year's Day on record. 

Ten of the 12 days ending yesterday went below zero. The first week of January in Burlington, Vermont clocked in at a full 16 degrees colder than normal. 

That's all over. At least for now. We're going to have a warm week, but of course, there's complications to that. There always is around here in Vermont. Especially in the winter.  Not only are there complications and dangers here, but in California as well. The Golden State desperately needs rain. And they're going to get it. Except it will be too much too soon. More on California further down in this post. 

First, back to our home state of Vermont to take things day by day through the week. 

TODAY: It'll actually be rather snowy in the mid and high elevations of Vermont. Some places have already had a couple inches of new snow overnight, and those higher spots can expect another one to as much as five inches of fresh powder today. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley will largely miss out. Winds a few thousand feet overhead are screaming in from the southwest. That will encourage the Adirondack Mountains to block moisture, so places like Burlington and Middlebury might only get occasional light snow showers today. No biggie.

At least it'll be finally warm enough for salt to work on the roads. I figure mid to upper 20s will do it this afternoon. Which is blessedly normal for this time of year. 

TUESDAY: Pick of the week. Clouds and maybe some scattered morning snow showers giving way to some sun. Breezy but not that bad. Afternoon temperatures 25 to 32. It'll be your day to enjoy outdoor winter sports, as it'll be a perfect day for that. 

WEDNESDAY: Also pretty nice, but getting dicey at night. Increasing clouds, warmish, with highs of around 30 degrees. But an ugly mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain will move in overnight. It won't come down all  that hard, but enough to muck up the morning commute.

THURSDAY:  Major heat wave, compared to what we've seen. Temperatures will go way up into the 40s, and maybe touch 50 in the warmest spots in the afternoon. A bonafide January thaw. There will be some rain showers around, but beware: The ground is so cold after that Arctic siege that rain could still freeze on pavements. Roads might be slippery even after temperatures go well above freezing. Walking will be a chore on all this ice, too. 

So yeah, Thursday afternoon could be a full 70 degrees warmer than it was Sunday morning. Believe it or not, that's not the biggest temperature flip flop I've ever seen but it is impressive.  In January, 1994, Vermont had a spate in which record lows in the 28 to 40 below range were recorded, followed two days later by temperatures in the mid and upper 40s. 

FRIDAY: The thaw continues with more rain. At this point, I'd start to worry about ice jam flooding on some rivers. The thick early season ice could start to break up and cause problems. Street flooding in urban areas could be an issue, too, as snowbanks could block storm drains. Temperatures well into the 40s again. 

SATURDAY: Lots of uncertainties here, but it could be a very, very troublesome day. There are definite signs that a strong storm will go through with lots and lots of moisture with it. That would mean heavy precipitation. The question is, what kind? Either way, we're kind of screwed.

If the storm goes by to the west, up the St. Lawrence Valley, that means heavy rain and possibly flooding. Some computer models give us that scenario. Other models take the storm further east, giving us Vermotners a lot of mixed precipitation or snow, or something. It could get ugly.

SUNDAY: Turning colder again. There are signs that this will be the start of another Arctic blast, but this one very likely won't be as intense or nearly as long lasting as the one that just ended..

CALIFORNIA CAN'T CATCH A BREAK:

Californians, especially in the southern part of the state, have spent the winter so far just begging, begging for rain. As we've noted, wildfires lasted past Christmas during a winter season that should be rainy, rainy, rainy and damp. 

Heavy rains forecast in southern California today
and tomorrow could easily cause mud slides and debris
flows below hillsides that had recent large wildfires.
They could end up with damage like in this photo. 

Finally, the rains are starting in California today. What the state needs is a steady, light, soaking rain, maybe a quarter to a half inch a day every day for a few weeks at least.

Instead, what southern California is in for is a deluge. No doubt, this heavy rain will help the water situation. But remember, there were all those fires. There's huge burn scars. Vegetation is burned away. 

Southern California can expect two to four inches of rain in the lowlands, with up to seven inches of rain in the foothills and the mountains through Tuesday. That's more than enough to cause debris flows and mudslides as the rains wash over burned out areas.

Since the burn scars are huge, these debris and mud flows could be huge, too. Homeowners who barely managed to have their homes saved from wildfires over the past few months now face the prospect of having them destroyed by mudslides and debris flows Ugh. Stay tuned on this one