Thursday, August 3, 2017

Storm Threat In Vermont, Rest Of Northeast Through Thursday

Screen grab from a WCVB report on Wednesday's
 flooding in Boston. Scattered severe storms and pockets
of flash flooding could occur again anywhere in New
England today through Saturday. 
Wednesday was a gorgeous summer day in Vermont and other parts of New England - unless it wasn't.  

We entered a weather pattern on Monday in which the weather is generally good, but some areas get some big thunderstorms.

One town gets drenched and blasted by a big thunderstorm. Meanwhile, two towns over, it's wall-to-wall sunshine. It's definitely hit and miss season.

This pattern intensified Wednesday, and will continue to do so today and Friday and Saturday, too.  Which means some of us will get a very nasty thunderstorm or two, and other areas will stay dry.

It will eventually rain everywhere during this period, but some of us will only get a little rain, while others will be at risk of flash flooding. You can't tell much more than an hour or two in advance who gets what.

But at least we can give you the general scenario.

Wednesday, the worst of the storms were concentrated in southern New England, the Hudson Valley of New York below Albany and to a lesser extent, the western Adirondacks.

In this weather pattern, storms develop, intensify super fast, then die out. They're also slow movers, so you get torrential downpours and flash flooding. All of these storms also have the potential for damaging winds and large hail.

The storms Wednesday, and the ones expected today and tomorrow, also tend to contain a LOT of dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

One such storm lingered over the Boston, Massachusetts area Wednesday afternoon, causing all kinds of problems with flash flooding, downed trees, lightning strikes and fires.

The Logan Airport arrival tunnel had two feet of water in it, with cars stuck. Other roads in and around Boston had as much as three feet of water on them. The Boston Globe said the Dorchester section of Boston was particularly hard hit, with about 3.5 inches of rain pouring down there in a very short time.

Now there's today, and the weather situation is almost identical to Wednesday.  Chances are thaaat different spots will be hardest hit than those that got it Wednesday. That's just the randomness of where the storms get going.

My guess is the thunderstorms are most likely over the Adirondacks, and probably over the Green Mountains. But a gusher could pop up anywhere, at anytime between noon and sunset today.

By noon, we in Vermont and elsewhere in New England will see those towering clouds that are the hallmark of developing storms. Just like yesterday, some of these storms will grow tall and strong, and move very slowly.

Whoever gets under any one of these storms will see quite a bit of weather drama, while maybe three miles up the road, they might hear a low rumble of thunder and that's it. Again, it's the hit and miss nature of the season.

Keep an eye to the sky, and seek shelter if it looks like a storm is looming. I'm pretty sure a few isolated pockets of Vermont, and most of the rest of the Northeast for that matter, will have some thunderstorm wind damage, and some local flash flooding. Most of us will escape that. A few will not.

Just like last night, the storms will die down tonight after sunset. The heat of the sun is a large part of the fuel for these storms, so when the heat source goes away, so do the storms.

Friday, it's rinse and repeat, with maybe a few changes. It'll still be very warm and humid, and by early afternoon, scattered storms will again erupt. They'll again hit some areas, and avoid others.

However, by late afternoon and evening, a weather front will be approaching northwestern New York, which could organize storms into strong lines containing severe winds and hail.

However, that'll come in toward sunset, and some of the storms' power will ease as they approach Vermont. Showers and storms could come through any time Friday night, but they are unlikely to be severe.

Saturday, the cold front finally comes in. What kinds of storms we get all depends on the timing of that front.

If the cold front comes through in the morning, before the peak heating of the day, there will just be some showers, a few downpours, and a couple rumbles of thunder.

If the cold front holds off until later, we could get some interesting severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

The cold front is coming from the west. Since tit will go through later the more east you go, at this point I think the best chance of severe storms Saturday will be in eastern Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and eastern Massachusetts.

Again, the big caveat: If the cold front speeds up or slows down, that forecast will definitely change.

Bottom line: Just be prepared to take shelter from a potentially strong thunderstorm anytime between now and Saturday evening.

No comments:

Post a Comment