Tornado Watch Issued For Parts Of Vermont, Much Of New York

Severe thunderstorms, like this one over St. Albans Bay,
Vermont in 2013, are definitely possible today.

UPDATE:12:30 p.m. TUESDAY

As of 12:30 p.m. a tornado watch has been issued for the Champlain Valley of Vermont and the northwestern two thirds of New York State until 9 p.m. this evening.

Conditions are favorable for both lines of storms with dangerously strong winds, and a few discrete supercells that could drop a tornado or two.

Get ready for a noisy, and in a few places, a potentially dangerous afternoon and evening in much of the Northeast, including Vermont.

As of 12:30, there were already strong thunderstorms in western New York. There was a tornado-warned storm south of Buffalo, and a severe thunderstorm warning around Rochester.

The storms in western New York, southeastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec early this afternoon will continue to expand in coverage and grow in intensity as they head eastbound this afternoon.

While many places in Vermont will not get a severe storm and there might or might not be a tornado later today, this is a more dangerous severe weather threat than the isolated events we've had so far this summer.

A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes. That means keep an eye on the sky and listen for further updates and warnings.

If you get one storm, don't think it's necessarily over. There could be two or more waves of big storms in some locations.

Most places in Vermont won't get a tornado, of course. But it's still wise to review what to do in these situations, just in case.

In the somewhat unlikely but real chance you get a tornado warning, that means a twister has been sighted or indicated on radar. That's when you take action.

If a tornado warning is issued for your location, head for the basement. Take your pets with you. And a weather radio for updates. Don't come upstairs until the tornado warning expires.

Even if tornado does not score a direct hit on your house, straight line winds and something called a rear flank downdraft can still cause very, very damaging winds. (A rear flank downdraft is a gigantic gush of wind just behind a tornado or behind an almost tornado)

If you live in  mobile home you might want to call somebody now who's really nearby who can take you in if there's a tornado warning. You don't want to be in a mobile home in a tornado. They become too mobile.

Also, for gawd's sake don't park beneath an overpass if caught on a highway in a severe thunderstorm or tornado-warned storm. The underpass will funnel winds and make them stronger. And you'll block traffic, making everybody in their cars sitting ducks if the wind gets really out of hand.

So just be careful out there, troops

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A strong cold front is over the Great Lakes and heading east.

Out ahead of it, it's quite humid. Upper level winds are strong, and to an extent they veer with height. Some sun during the first half of the day especially will make the air even more unstable.

This is a perfect recipe for at least scattered severe storms. There's no guarantees of course, but this is the most favorable setup for severe weather in our area I've seen all summer.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of the Northeast in at least a slight risk zone for severe weather. The greatest concentration of severe storms looks like it might be through northern Pennyslvania, much of New York and western Vermont.

The greatest threat from today's storms is strong, damaging winds with the thunderstorms, which will probably primarily organize into lines.

If you watch weather radar as the storms approach, look out for what we call "bowing segments." That's when part of a line of thunderstorms curves outward ahead of the main line of storms. Where the storms curve outward is where you can expect the most damaging winds.

If discrete storms form ahead of the main lines of storms, there's even the slight risk of a couple tornadoes in the Hudson Valley of New York and in southwestern Vermont, especially Rutland and Bennington counties.

The storms could hit any time between noon and 10 p.m. Simulated radar forecasts suggest a line of storms will get going in western and central New York by 2 p.m. get into the Adirondacks by 4 p.m. and start to threaten western Vermont by 5 p.m., and into central Vermont by around 7 p.m. or so.

Again, discrete, possibly severe storms could also form ahead of this expected main line of storms. All the storms will be moving along at a pretty good clip, so there might not be a lot of time to get ready between the time you start seeing dark clouds and when the storm hits.

And by the way, don't expect things to work out exactly like the forecast I outlined above. It's just to give you a general idea. Things are always slightly different when the actual storms hit. The timing and location of the worst storms could always change.

The usual advice applies. Take that hike or trip out onto the lake another day, not today. Although you might or might not end up getting damaging winds at your house today, just to be on the safe side I'd take things like lawn furniture and deck umbrellas indoors this morning.

That way, there will be no need for a panicked rescue of your stuff if a storm does pop up.
Keep a weather radio near you so you can get warnings. Or at least have a reliable local weather source near you in case there's a need for a head's up.

It would also be an excellent idea to stay indoors and away from windows if a severe storm happens to hit your area today.

The severe weather threat isn't limited to our area. A zone from central and southern Quebec - including Montreal, down to Kentucky is under the gun today.

At the tail end of this front, a disaster was unfolding in the Kansas City Metro area this morning. 

Up to nine inches of rain fell in that region overnight, prompting flash flood warnings from the National Weather Service with phrases like "particularly dangerous situation" and "flash flood emergency."

You only get that kind of wording in National Weather Service warnings if things are really out of hand in the weather department.

The Kansas City Area was hit by record flash flooding on July 27 and early reports are today's flooding is hitting the same creeks and rivers as in July, only this time it's even worse. 

Numerous water rescues have been reported, a lot of highways are closed and a lot of buildings are flooded, some for the second time in a month.

Back up here in Vermont, after we get through today, things will become quiet in the weather department, Generally dry, coolish weather is expected through the weekend.