|BOL on the risk of strong storms|
this afternoon in Vermont.
Humid, unstable air, made more unstable by glimpses of sunshine, combined with a weak weather front approaching from the west, will trigger some pretty strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
As usual, who gets what depends upon the luck of the draw. A few places will get a lame shower, maybe a rumble of thunder.
Other spots will get some gusty winds, heavy downpours and lightning, maybe even some small hail.
And a few places- not many, but a few- could get into some severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and hail big enough to ding your garden at least.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal to slight risk area for severe storms, which means they're thinking there will be a couple bad storms, but they will be relatively few and far between.
The National Weather Service in South Burlington is timing things out such that the storms erupt in the Adirondacks at around 2 p.m and start marching east. They'd be in the Champlain Valley roughly between 4 and 7 p.m., and from the Green Mountains east from 5 to 8 p.m.
By 8 p.m., the storms will be heading into New Hampshire while weakening.
Just how widespread the storms get this afternoon depends on how things play out this morning. Early on, there was an area of showers and embedded storms in northern New York, maybe clipping northwestern Vermont.
If they don't clear out quickly, these early storms may limit how unstable the air gets this afternoon. However, the just-past-dawn storms in New York State seemed to be moving along pretty fast, so they'll probably be out of our hair by late morning.
Which would open the door for this afternoon's storms. We'll see how that plays out.
Sunday, expect a cooler, less humid day, with partly sunny skies and just a slight chance of a shower. Definitely will be the nicer of the two weekend days.