Hurricane Harvey: Three FEET Of Rain?!?

Devastation from Hurricane Ike in Texas, 2008. We're likely
to see similar scenes along the coast of Texas with Harvey,
plus they'll have extreme inland flooding.

There's no other way to say this. A good chunk of Texas is totally screwed.

Hurricane Harvey continues to strengthen, and some forecasters think it will achieve major hurricane status by the time in makes landfall along the central Texas coast late tonight or early Saturday. 

A major hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Harvey was close this morning with 110 mph sustained winds. There's no reason why Harvey can't strengthen before landfall, as it's over very warm Gulf of Mexico water to feed it. Upper level winds are light above Harvey, so it won't get ripped apart that way.

As horrible as the wind and expected storm surge with Harvey will be, the real story is the incredible flooding that now seems inevitable.

As noted yesterday, Harvey will be caught between two high pressure systems and meander along the Texas coast for days. The wind will gradually die down, but the rain won't.

The strongest winds will hit only a small area near and north of Corpus Christi. But the extreme flooding rains will cover an enormous area.

Horrific amounts of rain are forecast, with up to three feet of rain in some areas of eastern Texas over the next few days.  A huge area of the Texas coast, possibly into southwestern Louisiana, can expect one to two feet of rain.

For perspective,  here in Vermont it usually takes an entire year to accumulate three feet of precipitation.

Lots of people are wisely bailing out of Corpus Christi, Texas and surrounding communities, as that's about where Harvey will make landfall.

Store shelves around Houston are already cleared of
bottled water as people get ready for Hurricane Harvey.

Although Corpus Christi isn't under a mandatory evacuation order, people right along the Gulf Coast are, since a storm surge of ten feet or so is expected.

Anyone who stays put along the coast will probably die. Unfortunately, I'm sure there will be a few stubborn holdouts. 

This is going to be a problem in Texas for many days, as Harvey will not move much. One unlikely but possible scenario is even worse. Some computer models push the center of Harvey back out into the Gulf of Mexico a couple days after landfall.

There, it could strengthen into a strong hurricane again and make landfall a second time, up the coast closer to Houston. Again, the overall path of Harvey is highly uncertain after its initial landfall, so we don't know for sure exactly where Harvey will go. We're only certain that it will be a terrible disaster.

Since this won't be a typical "hit and run" hurricane, and instead will cause problems for at least a week, this will affect you, too, even if you're thousands of miles away from the disaster zone.

The area under the gun from Harvey represents about a third of the nation's gas and oil capacity. That's going to be disrupted for definitely more than a week. Expect to pay more at the pump, whether you live in Houston or hurricane-free Vermont.

I also wonder what the federal response to this disaster will be. I don't know if the Trump administration is prepared.

The Weather Channel. like virtually all forecasters, is
predicting incredible amounts of rain from Harvey.

However, on the bright side, Trump's FEMA director, Brock Long, is regarded as a non-ideological professional, so that will help. Long's response might actually be based in reality.

It was already raining along the Texas coast early this morning as Harvey's outer rainbands move onshore. Conditions will deteriorate all day today.

I hope people will have gotten out of the way by the time the crap really hits the fan in Texas.