Media Says Worst Of Harvey Is Over. That's So Not True

Devastation in Rockport, Texas from Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey, always seeming to be worse than expected, crashed ashore in Texas last night as a Category 4 monster with winds of 130 mph. 

The Associated Press said it was the 18th strongest hurricane to strike the United States since 1851.

Early this afternoon, the mayor of devastated Rockport, Texas confirmed at least eight deaths there.

It's hard to get a bead on how severe  the wind destruction is in the communities just north of Corpus Christi, but early indications are it's bad. Very bad.

As of 7 a.m., Harvey was "downgraded" to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph and will continue weakening today. At least its winds will.

Don't pay attention, though, to any media reports that suggest that things are getting better because winds aren't so strong.

As I and countless meteorologists have been telling us for days, the real disaster is only just beginning right now.

You think the wind damage in Texas is bad? That's the least of their problems. The flooding is going to be absolutely catastrophic.

Harvey is still expected to sit over eastern Texas for the next five days or so. Winds will continue to diminish, but Harvey's proximity to the coast means it won't fade away and it will continue to draw incredible amounts of moisture in and dump it on Texas, and probably southwestern Louisiana.

Already, rainfall totals in some spots are past 15 inches.  Forecasters are now saying that 40 inches or more of rain will fall on some areas.

(Here in Vermont, it normally takes about 12 to 15 months to accumulate 40 inches of rain. Texas is going to do it in a week.)

This Texas flood will be unprecedented I think. Worse, the very heavy rain is spreading north into Houston, the nation's fourth largest city.

Already  this morning, a training line of torrential rain on Harvey's east flank was entering Houston, and it looks like that heavy rain will continue there all day, at least. At one point late this morning, the Houston Intercontinental Airport got 1.9 inches of rain in just one hour.

They're going to have trouble getting aid in to wind blasted and flooded areas. The region that will be flooded is so immense that people, rescue vehicles and such won't be able to get near victims for days.

This will even disrupt the national economy somewhat.  As I noted yesterday, the extensive flooding will be centered on the prime oil and gas refining region of the nation.

Plus, paralyzing a region as populous and busy as the Houston metro area will have ripple effects around the United States.

There's nowhere for the water to go. Expect continued water surging toward the coast from the persistent onshore winds from Harvey. That storm surge will prevent flood waters from inland from escaping to the sea.