|This storminess south of Hispaniola today|
is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm
Earl later today or tonight.
One of the weather disturbances that I said was way out over the central Atlantic raced westward and now it's in the western Caribbean already and is approaching Jamaica.
It's pretty well organized and getting more organized, but doesn't yet have a full, circular wind pattern that you need to declare this a tropical storm.
Still, winds are running at 40 to 45 mph north of the storm's center, says the National Hurricane Center.
The weather system's circulation will probably become whole later today and tonight, and that will mean we'll have Tropical Storm Earl.
Wannabe Earl will probably keep zipping along on a generally westbound direction and will threaten Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and/or Guatemala later in the week.
Earl could easily strengthen into a nasty hurricane by the time it reaches Mexico or Central America. Upper air patterns favor strengthening, and the ocean water in the path of Wannabe Earl is at near record highs.
In general, the warmer the water, the more likely it is for a tropical storm or hurricane to strengthen.