Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Tropical Trouble: Florida, Hawaii Most Under Threat Now

Thunderstorms are firing up big time in that
weather disturbance heading toward Florida.
It's an indication that there's a good chance it
will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Hermine later today 
I know I've been posting awfully frequently about tropical disturbances and hurricanes ane such, but it is the peak of the hurricane season.

Things are busy and heating up even more, so it's a good idea to stay up to date.

The biggest threats for bad tropical weather right now are in Florida and Hawaii.

There's now even a slight chance a wannabe tropical storm could bring some drought relief to southeastern New England. That's a long shot, but it's something to hope for.

Here are the details:


That hyped storm that we've been talking about that came across the Caribbean and into the southern Bahamas, Cuba and south of Florida never developed as so many had forecasted.

Now this thing has gotten into the Gulf of Mexico and looks like it's finally getting its act together. Upper level winds that had been tearing the wannabe tropical storm apart have waned a bit. The water beneath the storm is incredibly warm.

Satellite photos this morning show that this thing has really revved up, with big thunderstorms now nearer to the center of the little storm's circulation. I really think the National Hurricane Center later today will upgrade this - finally - to a tropical storm and name it Hermine.  (Not to be confused with Hermoine from the Harry Potter series.)

Forecasts call for Wannabe Hermine to move north, then northeastward toward the Big Bend of Florida. That's the spot in Florida on the northwestern side of the state where the peninsula ends and turns west to form the state's panhandle.

There's a chance that Wannabe Hermine could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it hits that northwestern corner of Florida.

So, that region is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. At this point, the storm cold cause storm surges in low-lying sections of northwestern Florida of three to five feet in some spots

Worse, Wannabe Hermine could easily drop five, ten, even 15 inches of rain on northwestern Florida, which would create a big flash flood problem.

Things are getting a little more interesting regarding what happens after that with Wannabe Hermine.

It looks like it will emerge into the Atlantic Ocean along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. If it remains offshore and not inland in those states, it could restrengthen after crossing northern Florida, or at least maintain its power.

Heavy rains could set off flooding in parts of Georgia and South Carolina over the weekend.

Most computer models take Wannabe Hermine off the coast and away from the United States after it gets past North Carolina. But a few computer models want to take it toward coastal New England.

Though that would wash out Labor Day plans in southeastern New England, that area is experiencing an nasty drought and could use a good dousing.  The chances that Wannabe Hermine would make it to New England seem low at the moment, but it's something to watch.

Another thing to consider that's VERY IMPORTANT: If you're planning a beach trip anywhere along the East Coast, including all of New England's shoreline, there's going to be dangerous rip currents, waves and such will make going in the water dangerous

What with Wannabe Hermine, powerful Hurricane Gaston way off the coast and Tropical Depression #8 heading away from North Carolina, the seas along the East Coast are going to be way, way stirred up. Be careful!!


Hurricane Madeline is going to go just south of the Big Island of Hawaii this afternoon. It was a major hurricane, but luckily, it's rapidly weakening.
Hurricanes Madeline and Lester churning toward
Hawaii yesterday. They're both on a weakening
trend today but still pose a big threat to Hawaii.  

Still, this is a big deal for Hawaii. The Big Island in particular can expect damaging winds, storm surges on the coast and nasty flash floods today as Madeline goes by. The rest of the Hawaiin chain is in for rough weather today, too.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Lester is expected to pass just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands later Friday and Saturday, with more wind, flooding and trouble like that.

I don't think there's ever been an occasion before where two hurricanes threaten Hawaii so much within just a few days of each other. Really nasty.

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