This New England "Schmutz" Storm Is Certainly Into Variety

Web cam photo of Interstate 89 near Berlin, Vermont this
afternoon. Mid-level elevations like this saw
snow accumulate today. The lowest elevations in northern
New England, so far, not so much.  

As expected, the "drunken schmutz storm" as I'm calling the nor'easter affecting New England now is all over the place in terms of weather.

Just look at Vermont, one of the states most affected by this storm.

A well-behaved nor'easter, even one with a mix of precipitation, would tend to produce rain to the southeast, a mix in the middle, and snow to the northwest.

So at midafternoon, at my home in the far northwestern corner of Vermont in St. Albans,  a cold rain fell and temperatures hovered just above freezing.

Meanwhile, just to my south, in the normally, slightly less snowy city of Burlington, there was a little light, wet snow falling. (Precipitation changed to rain in Burlington by late afternoon.)

And yet, down in a relatively high elevation in Montpelier, its 27 degrees with heavy snow. (That's even too cold for the wet, slushy snow that had been forecast.)

AND yet, up in Lyndonville, northeast of Montpelier and in the normally frigid Northeast Kingdom, it was 35 degrees and raining. Lyndonville was pretty much the warm spot in northern Vermont.

So yes, it's going to be a complicated evening in the New England weather department. Flood advisories and warnings are up for southern New England, where two inches of rain fell in just a short period of time today.

The rain wasn't as torrential there by late afternoon, but the flood potential exists. The storm is not nearly done, and it has left its damage. There has been some coastal flooding in New Jersey. (But don't worry too much; it's nothing like on the scale of Superstorm Sandy.

What's left for this evening? If you're in northern New England or northern New York, expect a wide variety of road conditions as you travel home. At one point the road might just be wet. A mile along and you'll encounter ice. Drive another mile, and it's snowing hard, visibility is next to nothing and the highway is snowpacked.

Not a nice evening.

The heaviest rain going into the evening was in western Massachusetts, southern Vermont and the Capitol District around Albany. Heavy rain was also falling over southern New Hampshire. Lovely. Downpours with temperatures in the mid-30s.

On the sort of bright side, it has gotten warm in the extreme southeastern parts of New England, as temperatures have nosed up into the lower 50s.

More to the north, in the Adirondacks, the northern two thirds of Vermont, northwestern New Hampshire and western Maine, it's still looking like they'll end up with 6 to 12 inches of snow. Lower, warmer valleys in the region will end up with a little less than that, due to the mixing with rain and sleet.

This seems to be turning out to be an elevation-dependent storm. The mountains get clobbered, the lower valleys or northern New England, not so much. So far, the most snow I've seen reported in Vermont is 5 inches near Windsor and 4.5 inches in Northfield.

Snow appeared to be picking up in intensity in the higher elevations of southern and central Vermont as of late Tuesday afternoon.

One big wild card is Vermont's Champlain Valley. It's been a rain/snow mix there so far, with not much accumulation. The $64,000 question of the evening is: Will a tiny bit of cold air coming down from the north be enough to change precipitation to snow just as the best moisture arrives?

I don't know. I'm hedging my bets for that region. Could be anywhere between 1 and 8 inches of snow on the Route 7 corridor between St. Albans and Rutland, Vermont.

As of late afternoon, the expected power failures were beginning to materialize. Green Mountain Power in Vermont reported nearly 7,000 customers without electricity mostly in the southeastern corner of the state.

I expect those power failures to spread northwestward into central Vermont and the Adirondacks of New York during the night, as heavy snow and sleet and ice continues to pile up.

Across the North Country,  I still expect the intensity of the precipitation to lighten up after midnight.

I also continue to expect the storm to linger around New England through Saturday, but continue to weaken. Unlike some storms this time of year, there's no big blast of cold air coming down on the back side of the system.

That means northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will continue to get occasional light rain and light snow Wednesday through Saturday. There won't be too much accumulation in the valleys. The snow won't pile up too rapidly in the mountains either, after tonight.

But the ski areas will continually be "harassed" by light snow and snow showers for the next three or four days, so they'll end up with a LOT of new snow.

I wouldn't be surprised if some mountainous spots in the Adirondacks, Green Mountains and White Mountains end up with more than two feet of new snow accumulation between today and Saturday.