Weird, Messy Storm To Plaster New England

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Forecasting models all predicted a weird, drunken
path for the upcoming storm this week in New England.  

Winter storm watches are flying for all of northern New England, much of New York State and northeastern Pennsylvania as it's becoming more and more apparent a nasty storm is moving in.

As I noted yesterday, this is a weird one. That it's an odd storm makes the chances of some wrong forecasts in some areas pretty high.

Unlike standard East Coast storms, which head northeastward along the coast in a pretty straightforward fashion, this one is going to meander, zigzag or do loop de loops.

Picture an Olympic figure skater trying out a routine after drinking a fifth of vodka and you get the idea.

All this expected drunken zigging and zagging is going to complicate how much warm air moves in aloft, meaning it's hard to tell precisely which areas will stay snow, which areas will go to a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain, and which places will stay rain.

Here's how the thinking among forecasters is going at this point: The most likely areas to get a lot of snow, and I'm talking 6 to 12 inches here, is northeastern New York, pretty much all of Vermont, the northwestern half of New Hampshire and the northwestern half of Maine. 

Like the storm that hit New England the day before Thanksgiving, the snow with this one is going to be wet and heavy and mixed with ice. Plus, it's going to be windy in many of these areas. Expect widespread power failures in Vermont, parts of New Hampshire and Maine if this forecast comes true.

It'll start snowing in these areas Tuesday, and the heaviest precipitation will come down Tuesday night, then become lighter and mix with rain Wednesday.

In southern New England, heavy rain is a good bet Tuesday and Tuesday night, so flood watches have been issued for that region. Tuesday and Tuesday night. Southern New England got a good soaking one to two inches of rain Saturday, and more than two inches is likely with this one, so expect some high water in that neck of the woods.

A high wind watch is also up for Cape Cod and the Islands with this one.

I'd also watch the western slopes of the Green Mountains of Vermont with this one, too. This type of storm can create strong downslope winds there that can cause damage to trees and power lines. This is particularly true since the trees could already be plastered with heavy wet snow and ice from this storm.

The bottom line: If you don't have to travel in New England Tuesday into Wednesday morning, don't. It's going to be a mess out there.  Also, I'd emphasize again that forecasts could change radically in any given area as new information about this "drunk" storm becomes available. Stay tuned.

Once the storm arrives in New England, it will park itself over the region through at least Friday, possibly into the weekend. When storms do this, they gradually get weaker and weaker.

So from later Wednesday onward into the weekend, look for clouds and spotty areas of light rain and light snow through the period.

Northern New England would be mostly snow, and some of the ski areas of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine could end up picking up a lot more snow Thursday through Saturday, in addition to what comes down in the prime of the storm Tuesday and Tuesday night.