Still On Track For HUGE Mess Of A New England Storm Tuesday, Wednesday

Predicted snowfall amounts from the National Weather Service,
 Burlington, Vermont. (Click to make it bigger, easier to read)  

Winter storm warnings are now flying in a broad area of the Northeast from northeastern Pennsylvania on up into western and northern Maine.

Here's the rundown:

That northeastern corner of Pennsylvania, much of New York, pretty much all of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and the northwestern half of Maine are all in for the worst of it.

Those areas can generally expect 5 to 12 inches of wet, gloppy snow, mixed in many areas with sleet, freezing rain and a little rain.

The combination of wet cement-like snow, the ice, and winds gusting to 30 mph in the winter storm warning means REAL trouble. First of all, wet snow packs down on roads into a particularly slippery ice. And that ice doesn't get salted off and plowed off roads that easily.

Predicted snowfall in New Hampshire, Maine  

Plus, the wet snow is sure to cause widespread power failures, especially in rural areas of New York, Vermont, northern New Hampshire and western Maine.

Be prepared for power failures that in some cases could last a few days in the winter storm warning area.

This will be similar to the big power failures around New England during a wet snowstorm around Thanksgiving, but the power failures, as it stands now, look to be a little north and west of the areas hardest hit during Thanksgiving.

That means western New Hampshire, most of Vermont and parts of eastern New York are most under threat of power problems. I notice Green Mountain Power in Vermont is already lining up extra crews and bringing in others from outside the state to be ready for trouble.

That said, this forecast still has a high potential for a bust. The temperature through pretty much the entire atmosphere from the surface to several thousand feet up is going to be right near 32 degrees in the winter storm area.

If the temperature is unexpectedly just a degree or two warmer or colder than forecast, that would change the weather scenario in any one spot greatly.

Predicted snowfall in Albany, N.Y.
capital district, surrounding areas.  

And by the way, it's impossible to pinpoint the exact temperature through several thousands of feet of the atmosphere just a few hours in advance, much less 12 to 24 hours.

So, a few areas that are now forecast to get 10 inches of wet snow could end up with sleet or freezing rain. Or just mostly plain rain if the temperature is a degree or two warmer than forecast.

Conversely, areas that are now expected to get mostly rain just east of the snow zone, into eastern New Hampshire and central Massachusetts, could end up getting a surprise snowstorm.

As it is, central Massachusetts and southern and eastern New Hampshire are under a winter weather advisory for a sloppy mix of precipitation, sometimes mixing with rain, tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The ice and snow will move into Pennsylvania and New York west of the Hudson River during Tuesday morning and reach northern New England by Tuesday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will come down between Tuesday afternoon and before dawn Wednesday.

Meanwhile, flood watches, coastal flood advisories and high wind watches are up for the Massachusetts and Rhode Island coasts, areas around Long Island, the New York City metro area, New Jersey and Delaware  during this storm.

There's already been reports of minor tidal flooding along the East Coast today and the storm hasn't even gotten going yet.

Basically just be prepared for anything in the Northeast tomorrow through Wednesday morning.

Once the storm arrives in New England, it will pretty much stall out and sit there until at least later Friday. The good news is once a storm like this stalls, the precipitation becomes lighter and spottier, so heavy snow or rain is probably out of the question Thursday and Friday.

Even so, the light snow will continue to pile up in the northern New England mountains, so some ski areas might end up with 1 to 2 feet of new snow between now and Friday.