Messy Northeast Schmutz Storm Underway, Will Get Worse

The weight of the expected wet snow, ice and rain
on trees and utility lines could cause failures in parts of
northern New England and New York today through
Wednesday.  

I like the term "schmutz" to describe the kind of weather New England and other parts of the Northeast are in for today and tomorrow.

The storm that was blossoming off the Virginia Capes early Tuesday morning is still expected to spread an ugly mix of wet snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain into New York and New England today and tonight, lasting into Wednesday, really.

If you want a one word way to describe this awful mix of precipitation, "schmutz" is as good as it gets.

As expected, there are slight adjustments to the forecast this morning, based on what meteorologists see happening at the moment. And I'm sure there will be more changes as the storm progresses.

It seems like a little more warm air than originally expected is going to get a little more to the north and west than first thought. That means the Albany Capitol District, most of Vermont and western New Hampshire is more likely to get a mix of wet snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain today, tonight and Wednesday.

That will cut down accumulations a bit in some areas. Far southern Vermont will probably only get two to four inches. I'm guessing four to six inches in the warmer areas of the Champlain Valley. Many of the mid to higher elevations of Vermont will still get more than six inches of snow, or even up to a foot, but even there ice and rain will mix in.

Of course, that means power failures are still a risk, as all that wet snow and ice piles up on trees and power lines.

Don't let the forecast of slightly lower snow accumulations in Vermont fool you. There's still a winter storm warning in effect for much of eastern New York, all but far southern Vermont and the northwestern halves of New Hampshire and Maine for good reason.

The roads will be very, very lousy as the storm moves in today and continues tonight.

Driving to work in northern New England won't be a problem at all this morning. It's clouding up, but no precipitation is coming down yet in northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and Maine.

But be ready for a slow, slippery slog home in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine this afternoon.

Down in the Hudson Valley and parts of southern New England, there was already patches of freezing drizzle early Tuesday morning, so be careful heading to work in those parts.  Areas of southern New England have had some freezing drizzle, too. Ugh.

At this point, the Adirondacks look like the big winners in the snow department, with more than a foot of snow in quite a few spots in the central Adirondacks.

It was raining hard in New Jersey as of Tuesday morning, and that was slowly spreading north. Flood watches are still up for that state, the New York metro area and a good chunk of southern New England.

Coastal flood advisories are also up as strong east winds will drive ocean water into shores. The flooding will be relatively minor, but the erosion from the water and waves ads to the slow drip, drip of beaches and coastal areas losing land to the sea with every storm.

In northern New England, it looks like there will be a lull in the precipitation the first half of Wednesday, but the schmutz could pick up in intensity during the afternoon and evening.

The storm is also still forecast to meander around New England through Saturday while weakening. That means light precipitation will continue on and off into the weekend. But it still looks good for the northern New England ski areas, because some snow accumulation will happen every day Thursday through Saturday.

By the way, New England isn't the only place getting a nasty storm. The West Coast from around the Los Angeles area all the way through Washington State is in for flooding rains and high winds later this week.

While the rain is good for putting a dent in the California drought, the rain in some spots will come too hard, too fast, and flooding is a real risk. Some coastal areas from San Francisco north could see six to nine inches of rain over the course of the next week.

The National Weather Service in Sacramento says the storm could be the strongest in a few years. In addition to the floods, winds of up to 60 mph could cut power, and whiteout, blizzardy conditions are likely up in the Sierra Nevada mountains.

That California storm might move on to make weather conditions, um, interesting in parts of the Plains states and maybe the eastern U.S. next week, but it's way too soon to say what I mean by "interesting."  If "interesting" develops at all.

But it's an active weather pattern. Expect just about anything for the rest of the month.