Dodged A Bullet: Not Much Severe Weather Yesterday

A thunderstorm begins to cross Lake Champlain
toward Vermont Wednesday afternoon. This storm wasn't severe
and that low cloud in the center of the
photo wasn't anything to worry about.  

Those of you reading this here blog thingy Wednesday morning saw me get all excited about the possibility of strong, damaging winds and big, giant hailstones by yesterday afternoon.

Turns out there was very little to report in the severe weather department. Oh sure, almost all of us in northern New York and northern New England got a thunderstorm or two, and a few of those storms were fairly strong.

Aside from a severe storm that caused some damage around Saratoga, N.Y. this wasn't exactly the severe outbreak of the year.

So why were I and some other forecasters, including the NOAA Storm Prediction Center kinda wrong?

We overestimated the amount of instability in the air.  Even overestimating things a bit meant the storms we thought were going to be severe weren't really.

But I hope you can forgive the slightly off forecasts, considering your garden wasn't destroyed by hail and five trees didn't fall on your house.

A weather disturbance coming in from Ontario looked like it would cause enough of a temperature contrast between the earth's surface and the air several thousand feet above us to cause at least some severe thunderstorms.

I don't think the contrast was quite as big as some of us thought. Plus, an initial line of storms came through New York, Vermont and New Hampshire between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. Especially in New York and Vermont, that was before the peak heating of the day from the sun.

A man sits on his skateboard while waiting out
a downpour in Burlington, Vermont Wednesday.  n

Had the sun had more time to increase the temperature contrast between the surface, where we live, and high aloft, the storms might have been worse.

A few more widely scattered storms formed late Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the previous storms stabilized the air. And that weather disturbance was already departing, so it couldn't really fire up more big storms.

Still, during Wednesday we had some downpours, some dramatic clouds and wind gusts of over 30 mph, so at least it was vaguely exciting.

We're stuck in a weather pattern now and for the next week where the weather across the Northeast is going to be, Meh!

There's still a dip in the jet stream over the Great Lakes, but it has gotten weaker. On the East Coast, there's an overall airflow form the southwest on this side of the jet stream dip. That means some moderately humid air, near normal temperatures, and a daily chance of mostly afternoon and evening thunderstorms pretty much anywhere in the eastern third of the country.

Most of the East has been wet. Up here in Vermont, St. Johnsbury scored in the top five wettest Julys. Burlington's total of 5.54 inches for July is 1.38 inches above normal.

That means that any slow moving, drenching thunderstorms in the Northeast could cause some local flash floods over the next few days.

It won't be anything widespread, and might not happen at all. But there's a risk, especially in the Appalachians from North Carolina to Maine, that one or two towns could be bullseyed by a huge downpour and a flash flood.

Again, though, the risk of flooding in any one town or city is low.

So enjoy the hit and miss weather. Sun for now, storm for awhile, then more sun.

Hey, at least it's not violent, right?