Tropical Storm Cristobal Officially Forms, U.S. Hit Getting Unlikely

As of Sunday morning, most of the computer
models take Tropical Storm Cristobal away
from the United States.  

As expected, an area of stormy weather has strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal, which was packing 45 mph sustained winds early this Sunday morning.  

It was moving slowly northward through the Bahamas and is forecast to keep strengthening as it's being fed by very warm ocean water.

Tropical storms and hurricanes LOVE very warm water. That's a key ingredient in making them go stronger.

However, even hot water won't do any good if there are strong, shifting winds above and near the system.  That's called wind shear

In Cristobal's case, there's not enough wind shear to block it from getting stronger. It'll probably become a hurricane in the next two or three days. That's the bad news.

The good news, at least for the United States, is it's beginning to look less likely that Cristobal will hit the coast. There's still some uncertainty, so it's not time to totally relax yet. But most of the computer forecast models take Cristobal more toward the northeast away from the United States.

A little trough of low pressure is moving off the East Coast, and that will probably help nudge Cristobal away from the U.S., says the National Hurricane Center.