Almost A Sure Bet That Tropical Storm WILL Form

As of Saturday morning, most computer forecasting
models likely take what is to become Tropical
Storm Cristobal into Florida the southeastern U.S., or
recurve it out to see to totally miss the U.S.. Stay tuned.  

That area of storminess in the Caribbean that the National Hurricane Center has been watching for the past few days looks like it will turn into a tropical storm, or maybe eventually a hurricane.

As expected, the storminess is getting better organized, but still hadn't formed a real circulation, the kind you get in a true tropical storm. That will likely happen today or tomorrow, says the Hurricane Center.

So where will it hit. First of all, remember the outcry last week over that obnoxious weather enthusiast, named K-Mart (yeah, I know) who started a panic because he was posting images that suggested a major hurricane would wash New Orleans away?

Everybody piled on that guy for being a dufus and trying to cause a false panic, and it's looking like everybody, including The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, the National Hurricane Center and most legitimate forecasters were right to do so.

It appears unlikely this wannabe storm, which would be named Cristobal, will go into the Gulf of Mexico, though a few outlying computer forecasting models still take it there.

Instead, there's an excellent chance it will go through at least part of the Bahamas. I bet they'll issue tropical storm warnings or watches for at least parts of the Bahamas later today or tomorrow.

Then what? Again, nobody's sure. As I noted the other day, forecasts for hurricanes and tropical storms  for several days in advance are pretty unreliable.

However, the best bets are it will either touch the southeastern United States coast, or recurve off to the northeast, going out to sea and not bothering anybody after harassing the Bahamas.

If I were a betting man, I'd say it'll go out to sea and pretty much miss the United States,  but definitely DON'T take my word on that bet. There's more than enough uncertainty in the forecasts to still keep an eye on this sucker.

Nobody is really sure how strong the tropical storm or hurricane will be by the time it gets near the coast, or doesn't get near the coast.

A few notable and destructive past hurricanes, like Betsy in 1965, developed rapidly once they reached the Bahamas like this one will, but many other storms in that region didn't amount to much. Again, just stay tuned and we'll know more in a couple days.

So, if you live in an area between Miami and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, I'd definitely pay attention to forecasts for the wannabe Cristobal, and act accordingly if forecasts indicate it will head toward you.

But I wouldn't head for the hills quite yet.