No, New Orleans (Very Likely) WON'T Blow Away In A Hurricane Next Week

That disorganized blob of clouds northeast
of South America might, or might not turn into
a hurricane. And if it does, nobody yet knows
where it would go.  

A few of the more sensationalistic weather watchers out there are telling us that a huge, major hurricane will trash New Orleans at least as badly as Katrina did back in 2005.

If there are any readers of this in New Orleans or anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico, take a deep breath and relax.

Disaster is definitely NOT imminent.

There IS a chance of tropical trouble in the Gulf next week, but it sure as hell isn't time to head for the hills.

Already, the panic mongers are out.  Shore News Today in that region of the world already has an alarming headline: "First 2014 Land-Falling Hurricane Could Target New Orleans."

First of all, even if there WERE a hurricane making landfall next week, it would be the second one of the season. Arthur hit North Carolina back in early July.

And we really have no way of knowing where the hurricane will go, if it forms at all. True, one computer model brings a strong hurricane near New Orleans, and several bring something, I'm not sure what, into the Gulf of Mexico next week.

But other computer models say no tropical storm or hurricane will form. Or it will head to Mexico. Or somewhere on the U.S. East Coast. Or somewhere out to sea without touching land.

You see, computer models are notoriously bad at predicting where a potential hurricane will go, and how strong it might be, when the storm hasn't even formed yet.  The models are also lousy at predicting what will happen a week from now.

(They're much better at forecasting stuff that will happen one, two or three days from now. And yes, I know some of the models got Hurricane Sandy in 2012 right a week ahead of time, but that was just a lucky break)

In other words, nobody knows what the hell is going to go on yet. So chill.

My advice: If you're that interested in whether there will be a bad storm in the Gulf of Mexico, keep checking with the National Hurricane Center, because they are tracking an area of disturbed weather that will head into the Caribbean in the next couple of days.

That's the system that the fearmongers say will blow New Orleans away and drown it.

It's also the system that might not develop into anything at all. Or drift harmlessly out to sea. As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a 50/50 shot of developing into a tropical storm over the next five days. 

So you can see how the panic bloggers are wrong to tell us that New Orleans is definitely going to drown again.  Or they are at the very least wayyyyyy too confident in their forecasts.

Anyone on the East Coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine should have their usual hurricane season stuff ready to go in case something happens between now and November, which is the aforementioned hurricane season.

But unless they issue a weather alert, tropical storm watch or hurricane watch where you live, just check into the Hurricane Center, or your favorite reputable weather blogger or television forecaster. (Very good sources (other than me!)  include Weather Channel, WeatherNation, Capital Weather Gang and Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground) We'll fill you in on what's going on.

And if you hear about the Coming Hurricane Apocalyse from some unknown source, just double check elsewhere. You really CAN'T believe everything you read on the Internet.