Snowstorm In Vermont Likely More Of A Blockbuster Than Originally Thought

The afternoon updates are in for this big snowstorm and in Vermont especially, National Weather Service forecasts for the amount of snow that will come down have gone up quite a bit.

Heavy snow falls on a Queens train station
earlier today. It could easily snow just
as hard in Vermont, surrounding states
later tonight and Friday morning.  

This increased snow expectations are most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley.

Where forecasts this morning predicted a mid-sized 4 to 8 inch snowstorm in that area, the predictions are now for a good 10 to 16 inch dump.

The winter weather advisory out in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York has been upgraded to a winter storm warning because four to eight inches are expected in that area.

Back in Vermont, there is the possibility that up to two feet could accumulate on some of the ridgelines in the central and southern Green Mountains. Valley locations elsewhere in Vermont are expecting 8 to 14 inches, at or just slightly above this morning's projections.

I've been watching the radar patterns with this storm and they're a little weird. An initial heavy, but narrowing band of snow is working its way north from southern Vermont and central New York and that will probably cause a fairly decent burst of snow this evening.

There's a huge dry slot, an intrusion of cool, dry air into the middle of the storm, which is typical of these types of nor'easters. That dry slot looks to me like it might work its way into northern New England for a time tonight, and the snow could taper off for awhile.

If the dry slot does make it into Vermont, or nearby, enough warm-ish air might accompany it to cause a little sleet or freezing drizzle, especially east of the Green Mountains, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

If that mix does arrive, it won't amount to much at all and quickly change back to snow.

But it seems like the core of the storm will come up the coast, and set up another band of heavy snow on its northwestern flank between midnight tonight and into Friday morning. That seems to be where forecaster thing we'll get most of this big powder dump.

The NWS meteorologists in South Burlington think that heavy snow band will set up over western Vermont, the Champlain Valley and parts of northeastern New York.  Snow could come down at a rate of up to 3 inches per hour for a time, which really is incredible.

Uncertainty still hangs in the air. I and everybody else is excited about this heavier storm forecast, but if the heavy snow band doesn't really set up, or sets up in an unexpected place, the predictions for a heavy Vermont/New York/New Hampshire snowstorm could turn into a bust.

I just want to throw that out there in case we're surprised by a lack of snow Friday morning.

Of course, if the forecast is right, and I'm not doubting it, the trip to work could be hellish in northeastern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire Friday morning with deep snow, heavy falling snow and winds to 30 mph blowing it all around.

The snow should gradually dwindle down to snow showers during the day Friday. Continued gusty winds will continue the blowing and drifting. At least it won't be that cold as temperatures will remain in the 20s.

Believe it or not, another nor'easter looks to get going Saturday. But relax, it won't amount to much in western New England.  It'll form off the mid-Atlantic coast, but not really get cranking until it gets past New England.

That means Vermont and eastern New York can expect only a couple of inches of snow at most from that, with maybe more as you get toward New Hampshire and Maine.

The only bad news for snow lovers: It could rain toward the end of next week.

1 p.m. Thurs. Snow Update: Maybe Upping Possible Accumulations?

As of 1 p.m., snow was slowly spreading northward across Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire.

1 p.m Web cam grab from Interstate 89 in Berlin,
in central Vermont shows the snow had started there.
It'll continue to work north this afternoon.  

It'll come down lightly at first, but I'm watching a wicked intense band of snow across Pennsylvania.

That band of snow is more inland than I first thought, and it makes me wonder if the snow might come down a bit harder tonight in parts of Vermont than originally forecast.

I'm not sure, but it's worth considering.

The nor'easter itself is still a little stronger than expected and is strengthening a little more than I thought it might, which might also boost snow totals in and near Vermont a bit.

Also, some of the latest computer models coming seem to give us a bit of extra snow.

Here's what the National Weather Service  in South Burlington says in their noon forecast discussion as they monitor the storm:

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO
PERIODS OF FORECAST BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TONIGHT MADE NEED
TO BE UPPED A FEW INCHES...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHERN NY. WILL WAIT FOR REST OF GUIDANCE TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

So there you have it.  As is often the case, there's still some uncertainty right up to the point at which the snow is starting, which is typical of these hard to predict nor'easters. Stay tuned!

Did The Ice Or The Dog Just Take Down That Tree

Countless trees across the Southeastern United States have been collapsing under the weight of that epic ice storm.

In this video, was it the ice who collapsed the ornamental tree, or was it the thunderous barking from the dogs? Or both.

Note: No animals were injured in the making of this video

Northern New England Still On Track For Decent, Not Extreme Snowstorm

The moon set over Lake Champlain west of my perch in St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont just before dawn today.  It was a hazy looking moon, partly obscured by high clouds that are the harbinger of the snowstorm that will start later today.

The scene near Raleigh, North Carolina
yesterday. Northern New England
will geta lot of snow with this storm,
but I don't think it'll get this
apolcalytpic here. 

The forecast hasn't changed much overnight. Generally, expect 6 to 14 inches of new snow by tomorrow over the North Country.

The lower amounts would be in parts of the  Champlain Valley, and the most on the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains and in parts of the White Mountains in New Hampshire.

My guess is the heaviest snow reports will come in from southeastern Vermont, down around Ludlow, Mount Holly, Dover, Woodford, that whole stretch. There might even be an isolated 18" report down there.

The St. Lawrence Valley of New York will probably largely miss out, with just a few inches of snow.

We in the North Country are leading something of a charmed life with this nor'easter. The storm is causing chaos in much of the eastern half of the nation.

Early this morning, Jim Cantore over at the Weather Channel was reporting 560,000 homes and businesses without electricity in the Southeast due to the ice.

In the mid-Atlantic states, snow rapidly accumulated to 6 to 15 inches overnight, and it's sleeting and icing closer to the coast. At last check around 6:45 a.m. Dulles Airport near Washington DC was closed because they were having trouble keeping up with the snow and sleet piling up on the runways.

Travel is totally screwed up in most of the East Coast, suffice it to say.

Here in northern New England and the Adirondacks, the storm, like the one a week ago, is ultimately going to do more good than harm.

It's true that the roads will be bad for this Thursday evening commute and at least as bad Friday morning with snow and blowing snow. There will be accidents, it costs money to clear the roads, schools are closing. So there is disruption, no doubt about it.

But as I noted yesterday, this storm is coming right before Presidents Week, arguably the most important period of the year in the North Country ski industry.  Conditions on the slopes were already pretty good, and this will help immensely.

And assuming the roads are cleared pretty quickly in the big Northeast cities, all the snow we're getting will entice zillions of skiers and riders to our area.

Northern New England has for the most part escaped what has been a relatively tough winter in the United States.

We have had only one disaster this winter, which is something of an accomplishment given the weather extremes the world has endured lately.  That was the pre-Christmas ice storm that cut power for days in some areas and damaged countless trees.

But in Vermont and surrounding states, we haven't had the repeated disruptive storms and the record snowfalls that have hit some parts of the Midwest.

It certainly has been cold at times in New England, but not that far below normal. We haven't been breaking many records in New England, the cold spells haven't really last long.

That's not so true in the Midwest.   For instance, Duluth, Minn had a record 23 consecutive mornings at or below 0, ending onf February 11, according to weather historian Christopher Burt. And Chicago has had 22 subzero mornings so far this winter, the fourth most for any winter.

By contrast, it's gotten to 0 or lower 15 times in Burlington, Vermont. That's more than in recent winters, but certainly not that unusual.

So as the snow spreads northward across New York and New England today, grab a cup of hot chocolate and enjoy the fact it's not THAT cold, and it's just snow that's coming down, and not the end of the world.

At least not yet.

Photos Starting To Pop Up From Epic Southeast Ice Storm

Here are some photos that have appeared on social media today from that immense ice storm in the Southeast. I'm sure there are more dramatic ones to come:

From WBTV, North Carolina

From WJBF, Augusta, Ga.

From Twitter from @beerandracing, shows scene in Raleigh,  N.C.

Splitting tree near Charleston, S.C. via Twitter, @ktch3400  

Vermont, New York, N.H. Snowstorm Prospects Looking More Impressive

It looks like that snowstorm that's coming towards New England is going to be a little more impressive than first thought.

A Wednesday afternoon snow forecast update from
the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
As always, click on the image to make it bigger
and easier to read.  

At midafternoon, the National Weather Service in South Burlington upgraded a winter storm watch to a warning in the Champlain Valley and northeastern New York.

Meanwhile, the expected amount of snow in the rest of Vermont, already under a winter storm warning, have gone up a little bit.

During today, I had a feeling this might happen. As I've been watching the storm develop in the Southeast, where they are getting an epic ice storm, the storm system itself seemed a little stronger and a tiny bit more to the west than I thought.

There's also quite a few thunderstorms on the storm's southern flank, which indicates to me a stronger system.

When a nor'easter is a little stronger than expected, more often than not it takes a path up the coast a tad more to the west than it would have  had it been weaker.

The upshot is the stronger  nor'easter with a path a bit more to the west than expected puts Vermont, western New Hampshire and parts of eastern New York in the sweet spot for the heaviest snow.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is saying that pretty much all of Vermont can expect anywhere from 6 to 16 inches of snow.  Eastern New York, northern New Hampshire and western Maine look like they'll get similar amounts.

At this point, it looks like the Green Mountain ridgeline might be under the gun for the most snow.

Yes, I can hear the skiers and riders screaming with glee right now, and yes, I can hear the ski area owners and operators cheering just as loudly, as this storm is timed just ahead of the all important Presidents Week holiday.

Precisely who gets the most snow could be tricky, though. Unlike the storm last Wednesday, the amount of snow that falls in and around Vermont won't be that uniform. A stronger nor'easter like this often has a fairly narrow band of particularly heavy snow around it's northwestern flank.

Where that band sets up, and chances are it will be in or near Vermont, will determine who gets the most snow. My guess is the heavier snow band toward the end of the storm might be in western or central Vermont, but that's really just a guess at this point.

The upshot is some towns might get something close to 15 inches of snow, while other nearby towns, outside the band and/or near a mountain that could block moisture, would get as little as maybe six inches.

In this afternoon's forecast discussion, the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington say that the expected storm track is very favorable for a heavy snowfall in most of Vermont.

The snow will work its way south to north across Vermont and New Hampshire during the day Thursday. So plan on a snowy, slow commute home from work Thursday afternoon. Or just leave work early, the hell with it.

With the storm being a little stronger than I might have thought earlier, it's probably going to be a bit on the windy side, especially near the tail end of the storm Friday morning.  That means there will be plenty of blowing and drifting snow to add to travel hazards.

Friday morning's commute, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, might be among the worst this winter in Vermont and surrounding spots. It'll still be snowing fairly hard, and the wind will have picked up by then. There will be plenty of snow to blow out onto highways, cutting visibility to nothing and creating fast-forming drifts.

So don't get crazy out there, motorists. I'm talking to you, Speedy Gonzalez in your fancy SUV.

The snow is going to be on the powdery side, so it will blow and drift easily. On the bright side, the powdery snow won't stick much to trees and power lines, so we won't have a big problem with falling branches and power failures in northern New England.

One caveat: The South Burlington National Weather Service office is watching for any more westward adjustments in the storm's track. If that happens, mixed precipitation could creep into southeastern Vermont. I'd say that could easily happen in southern New Hampshire, too.

The snow will dwindle off during the day Friday. It'll stay relatively warm -- in the 20s through Saturday-- so that's good.

A smaller storm might drop a little more snow on Vermont Saturday, and then we get a quick shot of cold air in the North Country Sunday and part of Monday.

Thursday and Friday's storm might push Burlington, Vermont into the above normal category for this winter's snowfall, at least for a little while.

Snowfall so far this winter has been lagging behind normal. As of Monday, seasonal snowfall was at 4.6 inches below normal. Not that far on the light side, as we've been catching up this month.

By Friday, if the forecast is accurate, Burlington's seasonal snowfall might be above normal for the first time this winter.

Will Charlotte, Raleigh, North Carolina Be The Next Atlanta?

As that huge ice and snowstorm continues to blast the Southeast, the latest trouble spot seems to North Carolina.

In this image from @wxbrad via Twitter,
traffic is backing up in Charlotte, N.C. and
some people are abandoning cars.  

It's beginning to look like cities like Charlotte and Raleigh might be the next Atlanta. We'll see.

As of 2 p.m. Tuesday,  The Weather Channel and other media outlets were reporting major traffic backups as people in those bigger North Carolina cities try to get out of work and get home before the worst of the storm hits.

Only problem is, the storm HAS hit.

North Carolina is beginning to look reminiscent of the problems last month in Atlanta, when everybody fled schools and work at midday as a snow fall intensified, and ended up getting trapped in massive traffic jams on skating rink highways for up to 20 hours.

This time, Atlanta is getting an ice storm and pretty much everybody, spooked by what happened last time, stayed home, so there's almost no traffic on Atlanta metro freeways.

Let's hope that places like Charlotte and Raleigh don't get as bad as Atlanta did.