I Guess Tumbleweeds Are The Latest Winter Driving Hazard

Workers dig cars out from a tangle of tumbleweeds on
New Year's Day in Washington State. 

It sucks to be a motorist in much of the nation, and the Northern Hemisphere, for that matter, during the winter.

There's always the risk of snow, sleet, freezing rain, high winds, flooding, intense cold or other problems to prevent you from getting from here to there.

Add tumbleweeds to this hazard list.  No, us Vermonters need not worry about that during this or any winter. However, motorists up in Washington State had to deal with this, big time.

As NBC reports:

"A few people in Washington state spent part of their New Year's Eve trapped in their cars after winds blew a massive amount of tumbleweeds onto a highway.

The incident happened on Highway 240 in Benton County near Yakima, a city about 150 miles southeast of Tacoma. Washington State Patro Trooper Chris Thorson told NBC News that 911 calls started to come in around 6:30 p.m about people trapped in their vehicles.

He said winds that night were between 40 to 50 mph and it took about 30 minutes for the tumbleweeds to fully encase five cars and partially trap a semi-truck. The highway in both directions was closed for more than 10 hours in order for the tumbleweeds to be removed."

Thorson told the Seattle Times that occupants of the cars trapped in tumbleweeds "were not as amused as the rest of the people watching. Some of them had to ring in their New Year fully encased in tumbleweeds."

People think of Washington State as wet, and not prone to arid location hazards like tumbleweeds. But eastern Washington where the tumbleweed attack took place is dry because the Cascade Mountains to the west of this location block so much of that moisture coming in from the Pacific Ocean.

Yakima, Washinton, near where this took place, only averages about nine inches of rain per year, compared to the roughly 37 inches wet Seattle, Washington on the Pacific coast gets.

Here's a clip of people trying to rescue vehicles and clear the tumbleweeds:

No, Climate Activists Are Not Setting Australia On Fire

One of the massive Australian bush fires this week. Most are started
by lightning, some by arsonists. Few, if any, are started
by activists. Photo by Glen Morey/Reuters 

Twitter and other social media can be a swamp of obsessions and conspiracies.

One of the latest crackpot ideas I'm seeing is that climate activists are setting those fires in Australia or getting others to do that to, I guess, "prove" their climate change point or score grants from NGO's and governments. Or something like that.

I mentioned this problem of "climate activists setting fires" in a post a few days ago, but I want to dive deeper now.

I know I will never change the minds of anybody who firmly believes these conspiracies. However, I think it's my duty to do whatever little I can to counteract those beliefs, in an effort to stop the spread of really fake news.

Conspiracy theories like the arsonist climate activists is in some ways hard to fight because it's such a simple narrative. They're doing evil things to advance their agenda. Simple as that.

By contrast, the real truth is messy and complicated and sometimes ambiguous.  Which is why we do need to be patient as I and others try to set the record straight, at least to the best of our knowledge.

ARSONISTS AND ACTIVISTS

Most conspiracy theories begin with a grain of truth and then go off in some odd direction.  That's the case with Australia's fires.

There's no question at least some of the catastrophic fires were started by arsonists.

Back in November, as Australia's fires were getting going in earnest, the BBC reported that Australia's National Centre for Research in Bushfire and Arson said 13% of the bushfires are started deliberately and 37 percent are suspicious.

Australian research suggests that revenge is a primary motive for these arsons, says the BBC.  They start a fire with the intent of destroying property belonging to a former employer or ex-partner, for example.

The BBC says other arsonists are the "weird Pete down the road" who is odd, marginalized or angry at the world in general.

Now, it's most certainly possible a handful of these "weird Petes" are extremely concerned about the climate and start fires to prove some sort of point that only their own mind can understand. Remember, no matter which group you single out - climate activists, fossil fuel executives, men, women, straights, gays, religious, atheist, you name it - there's going to be a couple crackpots among all the rest of the normal people in these groups.

So yeah, somebody outspoken about climate change could conceivably have started a few of the fires. We just don't know. At least not yet.

However, there's no grand conspiracy among climate activists.

That's not going to stop the conspiracy theorists from pushing this idea anyway.

Some odd website called Granite Grok, which looks to be a right wing activist page (which is fine!)  out of New Hampshire said that four members of an climate NGO set fires in the Amazon last year.   They allegedly took photos of the fires they set and sold them to the World Wildlife Federation for a pile of cash.

Supposedly, Leonardo Di Caprio donated a lot of money toward this effort.

Turns out that's not true. As Voice of America reported on December 4:

"Police last month accused several volunteer firefighters of setting forest firest to get funding throuh local NGOs in Alter do Chao, a tow of fewer than 10,000 people on the bank of the Tapajos River in Para state (Brazil).  Federal prosecutors quickly said their investigation found no such evidence, the local pollice officer leading the investigation was removed from  the case, and a judge ordered that the firefighters be released from prison."

But still, conspiracy-friendly publications like the obscure Granite Grok keep repeating the false narrative to a willing fan base.  Right wing Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is also keeping up this story, despite the complete lack of evidence.

Pressed by reporters, Bosonaro said he could not name the NGOs involved, that he had no written records of these allegations and the accusation against the NGOs was just his feeling.

Riiiiight.

Social media is rife with the climate activists setting fires on even flimsier basis.

One Twitter user, who I don't want to identify because I don't want to give them publicity, wrote. "Hundreds of arsonists have purposely lit bushfires in Australia to perpetuate a fake linkage between #ClimateChange. The UN's #ClimateChangeHoax elites are getting desperate now, because, they know that you know, CO2-driven climate change is a hoax! Wake up."

This Twitter user did not offer a shred of evidence backing up their accusation.

MEDIA ROLE

The conspiracy theorists will tell you that these shenanigans are really happening, but the mainstream media is covering it up because they are in bed with climate change activists.

I was in journalism for more than two decades before a media corporate cost cutting move resulted in my getting laid off and deciding to take my life in a new direction.

But I'm still very familiar with how a journalist's mind works and what any mainstream newspaper or television station would do if presented with proof climate change activists and organizations were deliberately setting fires for money and using it to promote their agenda.

First of all, there would be the impulse to report with the motivation of doing the right thing. On top of that, this would be a blockbuster scoop, one that would earn a newspaper or television station more viewers, more awards, and more income.

It's called capitalism, and these big (and small) media companies would love to win the fame and fortune to find a story like that, provided it's true.

And what of those alleged climate activist arsonists?  Climate activists are by definition big environmentalists. Do you really think they enjoy those photos of suffering, burned koala bears and kangaroos in Australia? Like the rest of us, those activists are horrified by those images.

Plus, a climate organization that sets fires would be exposed sooner or later. These activists know that. Even if one or a few of these groups are corrupt, that's strong motivation to keep their noses clean.

We all need to learn media literacy is thoroughly as possible. Learn what news organizations and media outlets are most professional and strive for accuracy as best as possible.

When activists on any side of any debate say something, think critically. If you follow their logic, does it make any sense? It's also worth it to check with trusted sources to verify whether these activists and organizations are really what they say they are, and not "sock puppets" for some industry or political group.

For gawd's sake, before you donate to either a climate change activist group or a climate change denial group, check to see if they are not crooks. There are sources to determine whether charitable donations for groups actually go for the intended purpose.

On social media, take things with a big grain of salt.  There are plenty of bots, sock puppets, political groups disguised as regular people and charlatans out there.  Learn who to trust and who not to.

All this will make you a smarter person. And maybe help solve some of world's problems instead of just yelling about them.

Back To Vermont Snows Any Minute Now On This Saturday

Here's the snow forecast map we always display from the National
Weather Service in South Burlington when snow is in the forecast.
Dark blue areas should get 3-5 inches of new snow. 

For the first time in this relatively young winter season, the total snowfall for the winter so far in Burlington slipped to a bit below normal yesterday.

So far since the flakes started flying in November, 25.4 inches of snow had fallen in Burlington as of last night. That's 0.4 inches below normal for the date.

Snow cover is thin in the valleys, too, which probably frustrates places like cross country ski centers.

It still looks like snowfall will go back to a little above normal for the season as a light to moderate snow is still coming, starting any minute now on this Saturday, if it hasn't started yet where you are.

It was still warm early this morning, and precipitation was starting as rain in southern Vermont. The southern half of the state will see a fair amount of rain or a rain/snow mix for the first several hours of this storm, so that will cut down on accumulations there.

In the north, some areas, especially the Champlain Valley, might see some rain or mix at the start, but it will go quickly to a wet snow.

Now, wet snow is more slippery than powder, so that will have an effect on road conditions this afternoon and evening. That's why a winter weather advisory is up for the northern half of Vermont until early Sunday morning.    

Early January snow cover was very thin in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this morning, but an expected three or four inch snowfall this
weekend should at least partly fix that. 

As we go into tonight and tomorrow morning, the wet snow will turn into more powdery flakes as the temperatures continue to go down.

When you shovel out tomorrow morning, you'll find a nice light powder on top and heavy wet cement type stuff underneath to clear, which of course is unpleasant.

In general, the National Weather Service is going for one to two inches of new snow south of Route 4; two to four inches roughly between Route 4 and Route 2; and three to five inches north of Route 2.

Of course, mountain areas (Read: Ski areas) will get a little more than that.  The flakes will fly pretty much most of the day in many of the mountains, but taper off to basically nothing additional during the day Sunday.

To add to the snowpack, light snow is likely Monday, and we have a shot at another moderate snowfall on Wednesday.  After that, with this active and relatively warm for winter pattern going, it's unclear if the next storm in the series coming along next Friday and Saturday will be rain, snow, or a mix.

Australia Wildfires Really Are A Global Big Deal

Firefighters in a losing battle with the Australian bushfires.

I know that for the past couple months, I keep returning to the extreme wildfires in Australia, which incredibly, keep getting worse and worse.

In fact, there's a lot of media reports and weather forecasts that indicate Australia will have the worst part of the crisis yet by Saturday, as a combination of near record heat, continued drought and erratic winds will stir up the giant fires even more. 

Mass evacuations continue amid a rising death toll, widespread destruction, and a section of Australia burned that is at least as big as Belgium. Dramatic videos are at the bottom of this post.

The real reason I keep bringing the fires up is the obvious situation that this is a huge new story.  It also is, if you'll forgive my oxymoron, a microcosm of the global climate crisis writ large

Yes, yes, I know the bushfire crisis in Australia is not 100 percent caused by climate change, as some of the more strident activists would have it.

Wildfires have always happened in Australia,  pretty much every summer. This year, a  natural cycle that has brought drought to Australia, which has exacerbated the  fire situation.  On top of that, more and more people have moved to the so-called urban-wildland interface, which has made for an increasing number of potential human fire victims.

Apocalyptic scene of a mother taking her two sons
(under the blankets) out in a boat on a lake to
escape the Australian bushfires. Photo by
Allison Marion.

But there's no question that climate change has tipped the scale to make what would have been a terrible fire season absolutely catastrophic. It you make a climate a little drier, a little hotter and a little windier, in this case through climate change, you get something like the current Australian cataclysm.

We've seen this type of thing all over the world, although Australia is among the most devastating examples. I suspect the terrible wildfires in California in 2017 and 2018 were made much worse by climate change.

On the opposite extreme, epic floods, like the Hurricane Harvey inundation of Houston and much of the rest of East Texas back in 2017, likely would not have been as bad if climate change had been absent.

Australia's current summer of fire also highlights the current state of climate denial among the world's so-called leaders.

The escalation in "natural" disasters - ones that might have happened anyway but in recent years were made worse by climate change - coincides with a global rise in right wing populist "leaders."

For some reason, some, but not all of these right wingers, like Donald Trump in the United States, Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro, and yes, Australia's Scott Morrison, are strident climate deniers, or at least, they don't give a damn about it.

Trump, Bolsonaro and Morrison have all labeled climate change as "fake news."

Bolsonaro went as far to falsely accuse climate activists, including Leonardo DiCaprio, of setting or  having people set Amazon forest fires last year to boost their political agenda  While Morrison has certainly not copied Bolsonaro, his poltical supporters have.

I notice on Twitter, where fake news really thrives, a lot of climate deniers have retweeted patently false "news" that 200 climate activists started the Australian fires to advance their agenda.

Australians awaiting rescue from a seaside beach as bushfires
close in on them.

As always these awful deniers take something that has a grain of truth and then totally falsify what's really going on.  It's true that a lot of the Australian fires were set by humans, either accidentally or on purpose. 

These obviously weren't climate activists setting this blazes. It was stupid people doing some outdoor burning despite all advice against it, or pyromaniacs who get their jollies out of inflicting immense pain and suffering by starting wildfires.

Australia's Morrison acknowledges the existence of climate change, but says the current conflagration isn't caused by it.  And he supports and encourages the nation's coal industry, and resists calls to downsize that industry.

So, the fires continue. The death toll will mount, more destruction will happen, and then when the fires are out, or more likely before then, we'll move on to our next climate-related disaster.

Some videos:

Here a firetruck is overrun by the fire front in New South Wales. Firefighters in the video try desperately to get under blankets to protect themselves from the intense heat. Happy spoiler: They survived



A woman attached a GoPro to her forehead as she battled to save her home from the fires:



This is Mallacoota, as residents were forced to flee to the beach, a risk of having to dive into the ocean to escape the flames. The blood red sky and the darkness in the video were taken during the day, a testimony to how scary and intense this crisis was and is:



Here's some aerial views to give you just a little taste of how extensive these wildfires are:



To give you an idea of how serious this is, Australian media have begun calling this, accurately, a humanitarian crisis. That's the kind of phrase you hear when a Third World country is having a catastrophe, not an advanced nation like Australia. Here's the video that shows this:

Lots Of Small Storms In Vermont's Immediate Future

I took advantage of yesterday's mild weather in St. Albans, Vermont
to start hacking the glacier from last week's icy weather off
my driveway. With more snowfalls in the forecast, I didn't
want that ice to be a semi-permannet feature in the driveway.

It looks like we've gotten into a weather pattern that this wimpy Vermonter kind of likes: No extreme cold, no blockbuster storms, but plenty of chances for snow.

That's especially true in the hills and mountains, which sustain Vermont's economy with winter sports offerings.

That's all good news as far as I'm concerned.

This very active pattern for the next week or two at least does provide plenty of forecasting challenges, but that's the nature of the beast during the winter, right?

Today will be a rather quiet, warm day, so don't expect anything exciting today, unless ice from last week's storm melting off your driveway rings your bell.

Next, I want to dispel any rumors you might have heard about a big dump of snow from a nor'easter this weekend. That ain't going to happen. But it will still snow.

Some earlier forecasts suggested that a very wet system that is causing flooding in Alabama would join forces with another small thing coming from the Great Lakes to produce a big storm.

Uh-uh.

The wet Alabama storm will pretty much go by to our south and pieces of energy from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will hit us. There's some moisture to work with and the stuff from the west is pretty dynamic, so the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going with two to four inches of snow Saturday afternoon and night in the valleys, with perhaps five to seven inches at elevations above 2,000 feet.

After that, the forecasts get iffy because of the fast parade of little storms from the west.  Computer models have trouble keeping track of every little detail of this pattern.  If you miss something, the forecast is way off.

The bottom line is to expect pretty active weather. As it stands now, a Tuesday cold front could produce some pretty hefty snow showers, and another storm on Wednesday could produce either a little or a fair amount of snow, so stay tuned.

After a break Thursday, something else would come along Friday, but it's way too soon to say exactly what.

This generally west to east parade of storms is helping to block really cold Arctic air from plunging into our neck of the woods.  This state of affairs will probably last until at least mid-month, if not longer.

Sure, little pieces of Arctic air might break off and sneak in to Vermont for a day here and there, but we won't have any long, deep freezes for awhile yet.  Which I like.

Of course, there's plenty of time from mid-January to mid-March to have subzero ice boxes, so enjoy this relatively warm break while you can.

2019 In Vermont: Warm And Quite Wet

April flooding alaong Lake Champlain in Alburg threatened this mobile
home.  Vermont experienced heavy rains through much of 2019,
resulting in two disaster declarations for parts of the state
due to flooding in April and November. 

In the era of climate change, we manage an exception of sorts in 2019:  The year was not among the warmest on record here in Vermont.

It was still warmer than normal, of course.  The mean temperature for the year in Burlington, Vermont was 46.3 degrees, which is 0.5 degrees above the long term average.

A half a degree might not seem like much, but for a period lasting a year, it's a fair amount above average.

Still, this was the first year since 2015 that the yearly average temperature was not among the top ten warmest  on record. You do have to consider, though, that three years in a row, 2016 through 2018 being in the warmest list is unprecedented. That couldn't go on forever.

And, I would remind you again 2019 was warmer than average.  And by the way, eight of the ten warmest years in Burlington have happened since 1998, which echoes global climate trends.

Many climatologists say that climate change is also making our area wetter than it used to be, overall.  Sure, there has been and will be dry years in recent decades, but the overall trend is wetter.

The year that just ended followed that trend. In Burlington, total precipitation for 2019 came to 43.47 inches. That makes 2019 the seventh wettest on record.

While the trend toward wettest isn't as stark as the trend toward warmth in recent years, there is still a noticeable move toward more precipitation in Vermont.  Including 2019, five of the top ten wettest years in Burlington have happened since 1998.

A February 6 ice storm made walking in downtown Burlington,
Vermont a tricky, dangerous exercise. 

The bottom line is, if you think climate change is affecting us here in Vermont, the answer, based on the stats, seems to be yes.

These stats are a better measure of how the footprint of climate change is affecting us than more subjective measures.  Climatologists say that global warming is causing more extreme weather events.

I get the feeling that the weather and climate in Vermont has gotten more extreme than it used to be, but how do you measure that?  Sure, perhaps a storm you experienced recently might have been more intense than you're used to, but is that reality?

In any event, here are the most notable weather events in Vermont during 2019:

January 19-21: An unusually cold, heavy snow.  Burlington had a storm total of 18.6 inches.  During the storm, low level cold air drained south from Quebec, keeping temperatures below zero for the bulk of the storm. It's odd to get that much snow in such cold temperatures. Other sections of Vermont were a little warmer.

Nevertheless, a statewide thaw and heavy rains on January 24 subsequently caused ice jams and local flooding.  Overall, 41.8 inches of snow fell on Burlington during January, making the first month of 2019 the >>>> snowiest on record.

February 5: Burlington reached a daily record high of 53, exceeding the 51 set in 1991. However, freezing rain the next day caused numerous accidents in the Champlain Valley and had some people stranded on Interstate 89 for nearly four hours.

My St. Albans, Vermont driveway awash in heavy early spring snow
on March 23.

March 22-23: Parts of Vermont received a large, late season snowstorm. Burlington got only seven inches of snow, as precipitation there mixed with rain.

However, St. Albans got a foot of heavy, wet snow. The town of Averill in the Northeast Kingdom had four feet of snow on the ground immediately after the storm.  

April 15-16: Significant spring flooding hit Vermont, especially in southern and central parts of the state. A line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain hit the southern half of Vermont. That, combined with snow melt, led to the flooding.

Six counties in southern and eastern Vermont were declared major disaster areas, as there was $2 million in public infrastructure damage. Most of the damage came in the form of road washouts.

That was state highways. Municipalities had it worse. For instance, there was $1.5 million in damage to roads in just the town of Bethel, says WCAX-TV.

May 14: Late season snow hit parts of northern and high elevation parts of Vermont.  Greensboro and Woodford reported four inches, Danville got 3.5 inches, Plainfield 2.5 inches, 2 inches in Marshfield.

June 20: Flash flooding again caused some damage in parts of central and southern Vermont, though this wasn't nearly as bad as the April storm.  Orwell reported 3.25 inches of rain. Severe storms downed trees in Hartford, Rutland, Mendon and Clarendon.

Extensive damage in Sheldon, Vermont following a severe
July 30 thunderstorm. 

July 30: Damaging thunderstorms struck parts of Vermont in the strongest severe weather outbreak of the year.  Winds gusted to 76 mph in North Hero.

A microburst that traveled from the northern Champlain Islands through Franklin County pushed a Highgate mobile home off its foundation and toppled hundreds of trees. A separate severe thunderstorm caused a lot of damage in the New North End of Burlington, Colchester and Milton.  

A second round of storms on July 31 wasn't as severe, but caused a city-wide power outage in St. Albans and street fooding.

July 31: The mean temperature in Burlington for July ws 74.9 degrees, the third hottest on record. Only 2018 and 1921 were hotter.

August 17: A cluster of severe thunderstorms moved across Rutland and Windsor counties, felling trees near Lake St. Catherine, and in West Rutland, Plymouth and Windsor.  (Windsor would be struck bu a tornado four days later. See next entry.

August 21:  A tornado hit the town of Windham, Vermont. This was the first tornado in the state since 2012.  (Vermont averages one  tornado per year, so this ended a tornado drought of sorts in the Green Mountain State). The Windham tornado was an EF-1 with winds of 105 to 110 mph.  Several homes suffered window, roof and siding damage.

October 1: Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain hit northern sections of the state. Golf ball sized hail fell on Massena, New York and lightning cut power to the St. Albans area. Flooding and washouts occured in some areas. Westfield picked up 3.25 inches of rain, and Wheelock got 3.16 inches.

A large uprooted willow tree on my St. Albans, Vermont property
following the big storm of October 31-November 1.

October 31-November 1:  The most destructive storm since Irene struck Vermont with heavy flooding and strong, damaging winds.  Parts of the Missisquoi and Lamoille rivers had record high crests, with serious flood damage to homes and buildings.

The entire month had been wet, saturating the soil, and then an additional two to five inches of rain fell on western and northern Vermont. East Berkshire reporte 5.26 inches of rain, with 4.85 inches in Enosburg Falls and 4.8 inches in Fletcher.

Numerous roads and culverts were washed out, and much of Vermont was declared a disaster area for the second time in 2019. High winds caused additional substantial damage to power lines, trees and some homes.

Mid-November: Record cold settled on Vermont and much of the northeastern United States. Burlington dropped to a record 9 degrees on November 13, the coldest for so early in the season. Rutland dropped to 6 degrees. An early season snowstorm just before the cold wave also dumped six to ten inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in northern  Vermont. A second push of record cold air arrived on November 16-17.

December 30: A messy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain fell across the state, most heavily in southern sections of Vermont.  Some trees and power lines came down.  Lightning and thunder were reported in Bennington and Windham counties.

Vermont December Was Two-Faced: Winter To Mild

Snow squalls lurk west of St. Albans, Vermont on December 18. The
first three weeks of the month were wintry in the state. The end of the
month, not so much.

After a very wintry November in Vermont, December brought more of the same, making us think we are going to have a long, long, hard winter.  Then, suddenly, right before Christmas, everything changed and winter ended, sort of, for now.

Before I get into my December in review, a program note: I'll get to a Vermont weather review for 2019, and the just-ended decade, within the coming days. It's New Year's Day. I'm starting slowly.

Through the first astronomical day of winter on December 21, Burlington was running about 2.8 degrees colder than normal.  Not really the coldest ever, but there was a noticeable chill for sure for the first three weeks of the month.

The weather then went rogue with the start of astronomical winter. Every day from December 22 through the end of the month got above freezing. In fact, Burlington was still just above freezing as the clock struck midnight and 2020 arrived overnight.

Elsewhere in Vermont, a cold start to December and the warm end made the month come out right around normal, temperature wise. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Springfield all ended up the month at between 0.2 and 0.6 degrees on the warm side.

In northern Vermont, no big storms hit until the closing days of December, when that wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain passed through.  That left precipitation near to below normal there, with the driest region being in the Champlain Valley. Burlington ha only 1.59 inches of precipitation for the month, which was 0.79 inches below normal.

Southern Vermont was bookended by larger storms. On December 1, the two southern counties of Vermont were socked by more than a foot of snow.  Also, that mixed precipitation mess leading up to New Year's Eve was much more dramatic than in the north.

In the far south of Vermont, ice accumulated enough to cause a bit of damage to trees.  The storm down there was also punctuated by lightning and thunder.