A Winter Of Snows, Storms, Floods, Drought, Heat and Cold: A "Stuck" Jet Stream And Maybe Climate Change to Blame?

The eastern half of the United States has been stuck in a cold, stormy pattern since December.

Immense storms have repeatedly pummeled
Britain this winter. Is a "stuck" jet stream,
and by extention climate change to blame?
 

Out west, the song "It Never Rains In California" has never been truer than this winter, as the southern half of the state especially has been stuck in a long drought.

January in Alaska of all places was one perpetual thaw.

Britain is drowning in floodwaters after the stormiest winter in memory, with one huge blast after another hitting the region

At first glance, this might all appear unrelated. But there seems to be growing evidence that the jet stream, that river of upper level air that steers weather systems, is getting very wave, and stuck.

According to Wired UK, the jet stream exists largely because of the contrast between the the frigid Arctic and the hot tropics.

When the temperature contrast is big, the jet stream tends to scream at accelerated speeds, leading to the changeable, but usually not terribly extreme weather we all lived with, seemingly until recently.

But when the temperature contrast between the Arctic and the tropics is not as great, the jet stream gets very wavy, veering sharply to the north in spots, dipping low to the south in others. It also gets "stuck" in position more often, so if you're under a stormy spot in the jet stream, you get stuck with stormy weather for weeks on end.

The result is weeks of rain and flooding in Britain, the no rain at all in California, and one snowstorm after another in the eastern United States.

The jet stream this winter has indeed been extremely wavy with huge pushes to the north and south in different areas of the northern hemisphere.

The Arctic has been warming over the past few decades much faster than the tropics, so the consrast between the two regions isn't as great as it once was. According to Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, this helps explain the stuck, extreme and odd weather we seem to be increasingly experiencing at mid-latitudes, like  Britain and the United States.

All this is not proven yet, but there does seem to be increasing scientific evidence that climate change might be messing with the jet stream.

With the Arctic continuing to warm faster than the tropics, Francis said we should expect more of this type of thing in the future.

Here in Vermont, there's an old saying, "If you don't like the weather, wait a minute, it will change."

That adage might become less and less true in the future.

Weather Porn Videos: Yet Another Epic Storm In Britain

As the U.S. East Coast digs out from another winter storm, and parts of New England brace for a blizzard tonight, Britain is enduring yet another in an endless series of destructive storms.

Waves crash ashore in Newlyn, Britain during
a severe storm on Friday.  

This has been going on all winter over there. There's immense coastal destruction, terrible inland flooding and record high levels on the Thames River.

The latest brutal storm hit Friday, just as the U.S. East Coast storm was ending (and going out to see, on its way to, you guessed it, Britain)

For a look at yesterdays's British storm, we go to the seacoast community of Newlyn for this scary weather drama:



 And to Portholland:

 

A "Bomb" Of A Storm Will Rake Eastern New England, Glancing Blow In Vermont

A few snowflakes were starting to come down outside the window of my house in St. Albans, Vermont, the first harbingers of the next storm to come through.

More snow is expected in New England over the weekend.
Not much in Vermont. A lot in eastern Mass., Maine.  

I'm thinking, "Yikes! I haven't even finished digging out from the foot of snow we had yesterday."

Luckily for me, this storm is only going to be a glancing blow in northwestern Vermont and I already have plenty of snow to play in.

I don't need more snow and I'm not going to get much more. Phew!

Not so in eastern New England. This storm is going to have a lot of drama with it in that neck of the woods.

There are blizzard warnings up for extreme eastern New England, and on Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Heavy snow and strong winds will also slam the rest of the coastal New England, much of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes.

This is an atmospheric "bomb" which is what we can a storm that develops and strengthens explosively as it makes its way up the coast.

It was only just starting to develop along the North Carolina coast as of midmorning Saturday, and the radar and satellite images of the system were already really, really impressive.

It's very unusual to get two strong nor'easters along the U.S. coast within two days of each other, but we're getting it now.

This one is taking a track much more to the east of the one that dropped tons of snow and ice in the eastern United States Thursday and Friday.

So the areas from western Virginia on up into New York and western New England that got buried late in the week will only get about one to three inches of new snow out of this one.

But along the coast, Yowza! The storm will be a fast mover, so it won't have time to drop an enormous amount of snow. But it will be extremely heavy during the storm. Up to a foot of snow could fall on eastern Massachusetts and up to 18 inches in eastern Maine and New Brunswick, Canada.

Winds in the blizzard zone could gust to 60 mph. This will be a real powerhouse.

Like I said, snow amounts with this storm taper off a lot as you head west. Here in Vermont, expect a dusting to three inches, with maybe four or five inches in the southeastern corner of the state.

After a cold Sunday and Monday, (but not the extreme cold we saw sometimes in January) it looks like a thaw might set in toward the end of next week. That's a bummer for powder lovers, I know, but it won't be strong enough a thaw to melt all the snow.

It will just temporarily make it easier to use the snow to make snowmen and have snowball fights.

Winter Of Discontent (Ctd): Giant Snowball Smacks Oregon College Dorm

About a week ago, there was up to a foot of snow in the Portland, Oregon area.

In this photo from Reed Magazine
a giant snowball that had rolled down a
hill smashed into a dormitory,
damaging a wall.  

Some students at Reed College in the area decided to make a giant snowball in the quad, just for fun.

Then they had the bright idea to roll the thing down a hill. Two math majors gave the giant icy orb a shove.  Down the hill it went.

But our math majors maybe need to study their calculations more. The huge snowball, weighing up to 900 pounds, plowed into a dorm building, bowing in the wall, according to Reed Magazine, published at Reed College.

The two students who shoved the snowball down the hill immediately reported the mishap to campus security and said they felt totally awful about causing the damage, which will amount into the thousands of dollars.

Since the students didn't cause the damage on purpose and reported the problem as soon as it happened, they won't get in trouble, says Reed Magazine.

Ah, the dangers of winter.

Glad to note nobody was strong enough to pick up the snowball and hurl it at someone. That would have hurt!

For Those Of You Sick Of Winter: A Hilarious Forecast

Some people are rejoicing in the snow that has slammed the eastern United States. Skiers and riders and beyond ecstatic.

Sick of winter? The video in this post
might lighten your mood. Or infuriate you.  

Others aren't so enthusiastic. To many, winter is a pain in the butt. The cold hurts, the roads are lousy, the shoveling is backbreaking, the gloomy weather sends people off into the deep end.

The sick of winter subset might like the parody of those Weather Channel local forecasts, you know the ones with the soft jazz in the background, and the blue screen giving you the updated forecast for your area.

Hat tip to reader Margo Howland for alerting us to the following hilarity: (Some swear words on screen, so maybe NSFW)

Friday Noon Update: Snowstorm Slowly Winding Down In the North Country

After watching snow fall pretty heavily around my St. Albans, Vermont property all morning, the snow is definitely getting lighter, following a trend going on across New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

The snow is beginning to taper off along
Fairfield Hill Road in St. Albans, near my house,
but snow still snow has to be cleared. Roads
will remain slick this afternoon.  

Winter storm warnings have been mostly dropped, or will be by around 1 p.m. as the snow continues to taper off.

Light snow showers will continue the rest of the day, but most places will get an inch or less of additional accumulation.

The exception is the western slopes of the Green Mountains, and maybe some of the western slopes of the Adirondacks, a few highland spots in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom and some of the White Mountains in New Hampshire.

There, they could get get a few more inches of snow before it finally stops tonight.

The snow is tapering off, but the roads are still in pretty rough shape, despite yeoman's work by state and local road crews in northern New England and New York.

Gusty winds continue from the northwest, and that will continue the rest of the day. Snow will continue to blow and drift onto roads.

And there's plenty of snow to blow around. Those bands of snow that were predicted with this storm definitely formed. The worst of them were across central, southern and southeastern Vermont, maybe a little east of where some forecasters might have thought.

The upshot is the Champlain Valley of Vermont got a bit less snow than forecast, but not by much. The six to 12 inches of snow in that region is a pretty good dump. I'll  have to measure again, but it looks like I got a good eight or nine inches in St. Albans.

As expected, the Green Mountains and southern Vermont really got nailed. The last update came in around 10:30 a.m. and showed a whopping 23.5 inches in Mount Holly,  Vermont and several places in central and southern Vermont around a foot and a half.

I'm sure later updates will have a few storm totals bigger than these.

There still might be some interesting weather in our future over the next week or so. Another storm is brewing in the Midwest. It's going to become another nor'easter. Most forecasts still have it waiting to really crank up until it gets off the New England coast.

If that expected outcome happens, New York and Vermont will only get a little snow, three inches or less, with somewhat more in New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts, and Maine gets another whalloping.

Another weak system comes in Monday with some more light snow.

HOWEVER: There's always a "however." Some of the computer forecasting models are hinting the Saturday and/or Monday storms could have a bigger impact on northern New England than we think now

A few models crank out 4 to 12 inches of snow in Vermont Saturday through Monday. That's no guarantee. The models that are hinting at the heavy snow aren't always reliable when we're still a few days in advance.

So I'll offer an update when the forecast becomes more clear. We still have to shovel off all the snow that came down last night and this morning anyway before we worry about future snows.

Most Intense Part of Snowstorm In Vermont Friday Morning.

You know what?

Web cam grab from a CCTV camera along
Interstate 89 in Bolton, Vermont at around 6:30
a.m. Friday demonstrates the challenges for
commuters in Northern New England this morning. 

Just stay home. Don't go to work today. Especially if you're in northeastern New York, much of Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine.

The most intense part of the snowstorm is going on from before dawn this Friday into midmorning at least.

As of 6 a.m., it was really snowing hard as I see out my window in St. Albans, Vermont.  The few cars on the road are crawling slowly past my house through drifts and awful visibility.

Heavy snow is falling in bands moving across Vermont and surrounding areas, as was forecast.

Some of the snow bands are so intense, there's a slight chance of a rumble of thunder. Lighting detection maps weren't showing any activity as of 6 a.m., but there is a very small shot of getting some thundersnow.

Winds are gusting to or a little above 30 mph. The snow is powdery so it's blowing around easily in the gusts.

The upshot: The morning commute hours in northwestern New England are going to be just awful and really not worth it. Are you listening Burlington? Montpelier? Plattsburgh? Conway? Lebanon? Berlin -both of them?  Take a snow day. Don't even get in your car. The world will go on without you. Trust me.

Between the bands of heavy snow and the gusty winds, near whiteout conditions are expected at times, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington. The snow will be falling onto and blowing across the roads so fast that the plow trucks will have trouble keeping up.

So stay home.  Yes, that's wimpy for a New Englander, but so what? At least wait until this afternoon when things will be getting better.

Most of the schools are closed anyway so you don't have to send the kids off. Sharpen and/or wax your skis, make sure your snowboard is ready to go and be ready to enjoy a powder day later today or tomorrow.

As of shortly after 6 a.m., it was a little early to get updates on how much snow has fallen so far. Here in St. Albans, among the last places to get into the snowband, there was only about 4 inches new as of 6:15 a.m, but the heavy snow had only started an hour earlier, so we'll have much more than that by the time the storm is done.

I'm sure some places in central Vermont are closing in on a foot.

The thinking is the same as last night in terms of what the snow totals will be. Expect to finish up with 8 to 16 inches across the northeastern third of New York, pretty much all of Vermont,  and most of New Hampshire and Maine.

A few spots, especially in favored mountain locations in those areas, could end up with two feet of snow.

That 8-16 inches with isolated amounts to two feet is about the amount of snow that fell in the entire path of the snowstorm up until now from northeastern Georgia all the way into New York State. That's an amazingly large chunk of real estate to get that much snow.  Definitely a rare, but not unprecedented event.

Back here in northern New England, the snow will slowly start to taper off at midday and by mid afternoon, it'll just be flurries and blowing and drifting snow to contend with. The exception is the western slopes of the Green Mountains, where it looks like the snow will keep going pretty much all day.

For those of you who will be digging out, or better yet, enjoying the fresh powder on Saturday, the good news is it's going to be fairly mild, with highs in the 25 to 30 degree range. So enjoy!

Another, smaller storm will zip through Saturday afternoon and evening, dropping a bit more light snow on northern New England.