In Some Respects, Vermont's April Snow Shower Siege Has Been Pretty

Snow showers over the Northeast and southern Quebec created a very
pretty, tectured look to this visible satellite photo taken Thursday
afternoon. Vermont is somewhere in the middle of this photo. 

For two days now, us Vermonters have endured cold, windy weather, with scattered, unwelcome snow showers.

I haven't heard much enthusiasm for this snow, but in some respects, it's been pretty, if you look in the right places.

For example:

This strange patterned photo here  is a true color, visible satellite photo of the northeastern United States and far southeastern Canada. It's hard to pick out the geographic boundaries, but Vermont is roughly in the middle of the photo.

(You can click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see).

The strong April sun worked with a pool of very chilly air aloft to form a whole bunch of snow showers. Each one was small in area, and mostly surrounded by narrow gaps of sunshine. They were pretty evenly spaced, so you get this beautiful pattern, as seen from space.

More to the south, down toward southern New England and New Jersey, where the dynamics weren't quite as good, you can see the size of these snow or rain showers was smaller.

Up here in Vermont, the brisk northwest flow meant that nobody was under any particular snow shower for very long. You'd get a burst of snow, or a flurry, then it would clear, and the process would start all over again.

One of the skinniest of the narrow snow shower clouds that erupted
over St. Albans, Vermont and much of the rest of the state Thursday.

This pattern created a very changeable day. If you were under a snow shower, cold air brought down from aloft would bring the temperature quickly into the low to mid 30s, making it feel like winter.

Then the sun would come out, and the temperature within minutes would poke up into the 40s. With the sun, it actually felt nice. Then, minutes later, it would be in the 30s and snowing again. Go figure.

Today will feature more of the same, but there likely won't be as many snow showers around as yesterday.

However, southern Vermont, along with parts of New York State and central New England, are in for a snowy treat tonight, let me tell ya!  

The southernmost two counties of Vermont - Bennington and Windham - can expect three to seven inches of snow tonight and Saturday morning. The heaviest snow will pile up in the mountains.

Snow will get as far north as central Vermont overnight, but won't amount to much. There might be an inch or two in and near Rutland and White River Junction, with perhaps a bit more than that on some mountains. Once you start approaching Middlebury and Montpelier, there will be little or no snow at all.

We'll be in a chilly pattern for another week or so, which means there will be an occasional chance of a little snow (or a little rain) through the middle of next week.

Coast-To-Coast Winter Storm To Miss Vermont, But..........

Looking out my window past a Christmaswreath at a wintry scene
in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard as snow showers blew through this morning.

A big winter storm is about to raise havoc from California to the Carolinas over the next few days. but surprise of surprises, this one looks like it will miss us here in Vermont. Which is quite a switch, considering what we've been through the past couple of months.

There's always a price to pay, though, and we started paying it last night and will continue to pay over the next few days. At least many of us will.

An Arctic cold front is approaching us, and there's a complicated series of disturbances in the atmosphere out ahead of the cold front. These little ripples in the local weather pattern are causing air to lift, and that means precipitation.

These disturbances are also grabbing moisture from the Great Lakes and spitting it out much further from the Great Lakes shores than usual. Namely here in Vermont. And especially northern New York.

The first bit of snow from this set us surprised us in the Champlain Valley overnight with about an inch or so of snow. The air flow will vary slightly in direction from time to time during the day today but be mainly from the west and southwest. That means the spray of lake effect snow from Lake Ontario will move northward and southward occasionally over the northern half of Vermont.

Just be prepared through the day and into the evening for periods of snow and snow showers, with perhaps a snow squall or two thrown in here and there. Road conditions will deteriorate at times, and will change rapidly, so be ready for that.

Snowfall accumulation will be really variable. Southern Vermont valleys shouldn't expect much of anything.  Expect maybe a dusting to two inches of additional snow in the Champlain Valley, especially from Burlington north. Some local areas in the Champlain Valley could get up to three or four inches if they get caught in persistent snow showers.

Go into the western slopes of the Green Mountains and things change big time. It'll be a good three to six inches in most areas on the western slopes from Mount Abraham north, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. A few mountain peaks could go nuts with amounts closing in on 10 or more inches by Friday. (Read: Jay Peak on that one.)

It will get very cold Friday and Saturday with temperatures falling through the 20s and into the teens by later Friday afternoon, the flirting with zero Saturday night. Highs will struggle to reach 20 on Saturday, and a weak system will touch off some snow showers Saturday night.

After that, it looks dry and somewhat chilly Sunday through Wednesday. Bottom line is our weather woes over the next few days will pale compared to that coast-to-coast storm coming up

BAD STORM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST US

A storm that's going to cause a lot of problems through Sunday is gathering steam now in southern California. It's tracks is going to stay suppressed to the south, so areas from northern Texas to the North Carolina are in for a real wild ride.

Snow accumulations in a zone from Texas to Virginia are still a little uncertain, but it will be substantial for points that far south this time of year. It looks like it could get especially gnarly in western North Carolina on Sunday, where some locations have the potential for a couple feet of snow.

Winter storm watches are already up for a zone extending from eastern New Mexico to northern Arkansas mostly for Friday and Saturday. Upgrades to warnings are likely and I'm pretty winter weather alerts will soon extend to the Carolinas.

This is going to be one of those storms with a lot of potential for lots of freezing rain and sleet. Projections call for the potential for damaging ice in a band from northern Texas to southwestern Virginia over the next few days.

On top of all this mess, flooding is possible with this storm's heavy rain in central, southern and eastern Texas.

I'm sure you will be hearing a lot about this storm in the news over the next few days.

Menacing Cloud, Innocent Snow Flurrry. But Weekend Weather Truly Menacing

This photo I took last evening in St. Albans, Vermont looks like some
menacing weather was approaching, but it was just an innocent little
snow flurry. But really bad weather is due over the weekend. 

As expected, snow showers developed over Vermont and surrounding areas Tuesday as a pocket of especially cold air passed overhead.

Here in St. Albans, we had one of those occasions when an oncoming cloud during these snow showers looked menacing, but it was all just a light, innocent snow flurry.

The cloud,  pictured here, was actually mostly falling snow backlit by the sun. It looked like one of of those images you see of a violent Midwestern tornado that's just firing up, but of course it obviously wasn't.

Once the snow shower arrived, the low angled sun came out, too, and you can seen the benign results of the snow flurry in my yard. The brief video in this post shows the snow shower in my yard.



As I mentioned yesterday, upcoming weather in Vermont will be anything but benign, however. A storm is coming and it's going to be very, very messy. And possibly dangerous.

This will be the same storm that you'll hear about on the news affecting much of the rest of the nation.

It looks like it will touch off severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states, a really nasty snowstorm in the northern Plains, and strong winds with a very high fire risk in the Southwest.

For us, it's still looking like the storm will feature a stalled front over or just south of us, with cold Canadian air feeding into it.

As the event draws closer, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is trying to pin down what kinds of awful things we can expect from this setup.

They're highlighting three main hazards: Snow and mixed precipitation, possibly pretty heavy, especially across the north;  flooding and high winds.  

The specifics of the weekend forecast will certainly change as the event draws closer and meteorologists get more information, but the first stab at it goes something like this. (remember, it won't work out exactly this way):

Friday, the front will begin to set up, and some rain showers will begin to develop, especially in the afternoon. (these will be preceded by other rain showers Thursday, caused by a weaker system zipping past us.)

Saturday, the cold air from Canada will charge in, changing the rain to snow, sleet or even freezing rain, especially across the northern half of Vermont, along with places like northern New York, norhtern New Hampshire, parts of Maine and southern Quebec.

This state of affairs will go on Saturday night. On Sunday, it might warm up enough to go over to plain rain again, especially south and west of Interstate 89. Sunday night, as temperatures cool, there's a risk of possibly damaging amounts of freezing rain, again, mostly  but not exclusively east of the Green Mountains.

The storm's warm front will start heading back north Monday, and we could be in for a period of moderate to heavy rain. That rain, combined with the soaking over the weekend, and the melting snow and ice we seem destined to get Saturday and Sunday, could result in flooding.

Meanwhile, the storm is powerful, so some areas, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could get strong, possibly damaging.

The storm will linger at least into Tuesday with more rain and snow showers. So basically, it's going to stay cold and wet and sometimes snowy and icy Thursday through Tuesday.

Happy spring!

Watch Out In Vermont During Friday A.M. Commute: Looks Icy To Me

A rainbow graced the November skies over St. Albans
Vermont Thursday. Snow will probably grace the ground
by Friday morning, with a dusting to two inches
likely in the valleys, maybe more in the mountains.

Today was a pleasant, classic November day in Vermont.

Lots of dark, brooding clouds overlooking a landscape of gray, leafless trees. Shafts of sunlight cut through the clouds, and a few rain showers managed to produce some rainbows to light up the otherwise dark late autumn vibe.

Also typical of November, things are about to change abruptly, as they always do this time of year.

It was pretty mild today, but a sharp cold front is on our doorstep. Upper level support, moisture - a lot of it from the Great Lakes - and favorable winds will give many of us some snow late tonight.

The weather set up looks like that - unlike last Friday - the snow showers will extend into the Champlain Valley. That means most of us are in for a dicey, icy Friday morning commute, not just the people who live up in the high elevations or in central Vermont away from the lake. Those places will get some snow, too, so it looks like we're all in for it.

There's a good chance Burlington could see its first measurable snowfall of the season. It won't be much - probably less than an inch - but with rapidly falling temperatures, melting snow will then refreeze on the roads.

The western slopes of the Green Mountains stand to get more snow out of this, probably one to three inches. And the summits of the central and northern Green Mountains, , like the top of Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak, could come in with six inches of fresh powder.

I'm sure that will encourage the skiers. The resorts are opening at a fast pace, thanks to chilly weather that is encouraging snow making. The snowfall tonight and tomorrow morning will just add to the mood.

Another storm over the weekend will produce first a little mix, then rain regionwide, then mountain snow showers Sunday. The mountains could pick up a few inches on Sunday.

Winter is settling in.