BIG Thump Of Snow Surprises Every Vermonter, Including Meteorologists

Winter wonderland in my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning.

Yesterday and last night's big dumping of snow on Vermont, which surprised everybody, is proof that even with all the fancy-dancy computer models and super smart meterologists out there, the weather can still sneak up on everybody.

As we now know, what had been widely expected to be a decent snowstorm in southern Vermont and no big deal central and north turned out to be anything but.

A band of very heavy snow crept from south to north over all but far northwestern Vermont Monday afternoon and evening.  Snowfall rates in that band were up to three inches per hour, which is pretty much the heaviest snowfall rate possible.

Burlington, for instance, got 2.9 inches of snow in one hour for a storm total of 5.5 inches. The forecast Monday morning called for a storm total of about an inch, so Burlington got roughly three times the predicted snow in just one hour.

Not all Vermont storm snow totals were in yet as of early this morning, but the numbers we do have are impressive, to say the least.

The Northeast Kingdom and parts of central Vermont, especially in Rutland and Windsor counties were close. Quechee reported 11 inches, the most I've seen so far from this storm.  Mount Holly, Worcester, Winhall, Kirby, Calais and Walden all got 10 inches. Around 9 inches fell in St. Johnsbury, Middlebury and Benson.

The 10 or so inches in the Northeast Kingdom were especially impressive since only two or three inches of snow had been predicted there.

Only the far northwest corner of Vermont sort of escaped, but still got more than we bargained for.  Here at my St. Albans property, I collected 3.5 inches of snow.

WHY THE BOTCHED FORECAST

Winter returned overnight for a brief stay in St. Albans, Vermont 

So: Why was the forecast so wrong?  Very frequently in snowstorms, a heavy band of precipitation sets up on the north or northwest side of a storm. That was actually expected to happen with this storm.

Also, as expected, this band of heavy precipitation set itself up Monday across central New England, where winter storm warnings were put up well in advance of this expectation.

The problem was this band of heavy snow, against every expectations lifted northward all the way to the Canadian border in Vermont and New Hampshire. (Another band of heavy precipitation took shape in central New England and pretty much stayed there for a little while, as forecast).

That band of heavy snow lifting northward was not caught in advance by any of the computer models that meteorologist at least partly rely upon.  Sometimes, despite all the advances in technology, the models are not yet always sophisticated enough to catch relatively small scale features like that unpredicted snow band.  

The computer models got the path of the storm correct, they were right about its central strength and forward speed, but were wrong about what happened with the storm here in Vermont.  This time, when the forecasts ended up being wrong, we all surely noticed.

This is not to say we should just give up on weather forecasts. Meteorologists are smart scientists, and the computer models have gotten a lot better with their data over the years.  Which means most of the time, the forecast is correct. Generally speaking, at least 80 percent of weather forecasts for the next day or two turn out to be completely accurate.

But occasionally, we do have to deal with a big surprise, like we did last night.

WHAT'S NEXT

The storm is over, and the cleanup begins. It was a fairly warm storm. You'll notice that the snow is wet and heavy. If you must go out and travel, the main roads were pretty much OK by 7 a.m. - just wet. Secondary roads will have some iffy conditions for awhile, but they'll melt out.

Speaking of melting, if you don't like all this new snow, it will melt pretty fast. True, the unexpectedly deep snow will reflect the sun's heat back into space a bit, so it'll be a little cooler today than originally forecast as a result.

Still, most valley locations will get into the 40s today. Skies will partly clear, and even where it stays relatively cloudy, some of the sun's heat will get through. The sun angle is high now, so that will aid in melting the snow.  The ground is not really frozen, so that will help, too.

We're actually set up for a couple days of great sugaring weather. The snow cover will encourage chillier temperatures for the next couple of nights with lows well down into the 20s. Daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s. That is perfect for maple sugaring.

A few days ago, it looked like another storm would take a path similar to yesterday's which risked bringing us more snow tomorrow.  But that system will be weaker and further south than the one we just had, so it won't give us any trouble. We're in the clear.

Some rain showers will probably creep in Thursday. A larger storm seems likely this weekend, but the details on that one are still very sketchy. Early indications are the weekend storm will be mostly, but not exclusively rain.  We'll have to wait and see.