Tropical Storm Cristobal Lurks. Eventual Gulf Coast Hit?

The projected path of Tropical Storm Cristobal from the
National Hurricane Center. This forecast will surely be
adjusted in the coming days as more data comes in

As was pretty much expected, Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday.  It is the third tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic basin, the earliest on record for a "C" storm.

As we know, the names of each season's tropical storms and hurricanes go in alphabetical order.  Last year, we didn't have a storm that started with a "C" until August.

By this morning, the National Hurricane Center said Cristobal had strengthened to the point where it had top winds of 60 mph. It was just making landfall early this morning on the southeastern Mexican coast.

Cristobal is moving very slowly, so it will dump huge amounts of rain in the areas it hits later today. No doubt there will be catastrophic flooding as the storm is forecast to dump 20 inches or so of rain on some areas.

As noted yesterday, parts of El Salvadore and Guatamala were hit with torrential rains from Tropical Storm Amanda this past weekend.  Additional rainfall from Cristobal will raise rainfall totals in parts of those two countries to 35 inches since last Saturday.

That will make already horrific flooding even worse.

For persepective, 35 inches of rain is very roughly how much precipitation we get in Vermont during the course of a whole year.

As is often the case, what happens to Cristobal in the coming days is pretty uncertain.  It's expected to  linger near the shore of the Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days.  If the storm center stays very close to the shore, it will weaken slowly.  If it moves inland more, it will weaken faster.

That either/or scenario might have implications for the United States Gulf Coast.  Steering currents are expected to eventually draw Cristobal northward, which would make it aim toward perhaps Louisiana late Sunday night or Monday.

If Cristobal weakens a lot over the next couple of days, that could mean maybe a weaker, less impactful storm on the U.S. Gulf Coast. If Cristobal maintains its shape better between now and Thurday, it will have more ability to strenghten further as it heads north through the Gulf of Mexico over the upcoming weekend.

Under that stronger scenario, Cristobal could actually be a hurricane once it reaches the Gulf Coast. If it is a hurricane at U.S. landfall, it would be the earliest in the year on record a hurricane hit the United States. The current record holder is Hurricane Alma, which struck Florida on June 9, 1966.

People in and around Louisiana ought to keep an eye on Cristobal, as it could really cause some flooding problems if it gets or keeps its act together.