Tropical Storm Coliln Causing Trouble In Florida, And Southeast

Strong upper level winds are making Tropical
Storm Colin not look like a traditional tropical
storm, but it's packing punch in Florida 

Tropical Storm Colin blossomed in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and is going to cause a ton of trouble in Florida today, and in parts of the Carolinas Tuesday.

Colin was a disorganized mess this morning as it approached northern Florida from the Gulf of Mexico, but don't let that fool you. Heavy rain - up to eight inches of it -- will cause quite a bit of flooding.    

Storm surges will reach one to three feet on the northern Gulf Coast of Florida from Tampa north.  That doesn't sound like much until you consider the Florida coast is not like New England's.

The land doesn't rise in elevation going inland in Florida, so storm surges can cause quite a bit of damage to buildings in Florida coastal towns, since a lot of real estate is less than three feet above sea level there.

Overall winds will probably peak around 50 mph in Florida as Colin passes through.  Gusts will get higher than that, so there will be damage to trees, carports, roofs, trees, that sort of thing.

Strong upper level winds are making Colin that disorganized mess. We're used to seeing nice circular tropical storms and hurricanes on satellite pictures, but Colin is just a mass of ragged, mean looking clouds.

The strong winds in the upper atmosphere, called wind shear, are making Colin look so messy, and will prevent it from strengthening into a hurricane. (You want light winds aloft over a tropical storm to make it strengthen.)

That same wind shear that's not letting Collin strengthen will make some of the storm's thunderstorms spin as they get into Florida and southern Georgia.  Some thunderstorms, once they get to spinning, can drop tornadoes, so that's a threat along the path of Colin, for sure.

Weather had already gotten bad in Florida by late morning. Strong storms, high winds and heavy rains were hitting parts of the state.

Colin will cross southern Florida tonight and move pretty close to the Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina coasts Tuesday before heading out to sea.

Don't pay too much attention to the path of Colin's exact center. Especially since Colin is not the classic, symmetrical tropical storm. A wide swath of land in Florida, southern Georgia, South Carolina and much of North Carolina are in for some rough weather.

It's awfully early in the hurricane season to be on the third one already. This is the earliest on record we've gotten to the letter "C" in the list of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.

This doesn't mean we're going to have a blockbuster hurricane season with tons and tons of storms. In fact, the National Hurricane Center predicts an average season.

Still it only takes one super strong hurricane to cause a huge disaster.

Colin isn't a super strong storm, but as I said it isn't super strong. A major hurricane is definied as one having sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The United States coast hasn't been hit by a storm that strong at landfall since Wilma in 2005. That's the longest period of time on record the nation has gone without a major hurricane. We're way overdue.

Colin will certainly cause damage, though. And Bonnie, last week, already has with the flooding it caused in South and North Carolina. The Carolinas are getting two tropical storms within two weeks.

Lucky them.

Stormy, Maybe Even Tornadic Trouble On U.S. East Coast This Sunday

An enhance risk of severe storms and maybe some
tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday. 

Sunday sure is shaping up to be a turbulent day along the East Coast, with what appears to be an upcoming outbreak of severe storms and maybe even some tornadoes in the Middle Atlantic states, and flooding elsewhere.

A storm system that's expected to be quite strong for this time of year is likely to cross the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada.

Below that, extending into the United States, will be an energetic cold front approaching the East Coast.

A lot of parameters seem to be coming into place for what could be a oddly placed tornado outbreak extending most likely through Maryland, the Washington DC area, Virginia and on into North Carolina, and maybe some states surrounding these regions.

The air will become humid. And highly unstable due to that approaching cold front. Winds will veer with height, setting the stage for what NOAA's Storm Prediction Center expects will be some supercell thunderstorms.

Supercells can happen anywhere but are most common in the Midwest and in the spring, in the South. They tend to be long-lasting powerhouse thunderstorms that can rotate, drop huge hailstones, produce very damaging winds and, often, tornadoes.

Not everyone in the area I mentioned will see a tornado. In fact, not everyone there will see a severe thunderstorm.  But the Storm Prediction  Center has already noted an enhanced risk of severe weather for the region, which is a higher level of alert than I usually see two days in advance.

In general, the greatest threat in the Mid-Atlantic will be from very strong, damaging straight line winds, but I think there will be at least a few tornadoes.

Definitely something to worry about in such a heavily populated part of the country.

Further to the south, another tropical storm will try to get going in the Gulf of Mexico. I don't think upper level winds are favorable enough to produce what would be Tropical Storm Colin. But something will get going in the Gulf, even if it's not a true tropical storm.

The upshot is very heavy rain and flooding for Florida from this thing toward Sunday.

New England will be too far north to get severe storms, but it is in for a drenching Sunday and Monday. Normally, I'd be worried about flash flooding in the New England from this, but it's been so dry up there until now that the risk is lower than it otherwise would be.

Still, this storm system is dynamic enough to produce very heavy rain, so there's still a chance of some localized flooding Sunday afternoon or night, or Monday, for much of New England.

Following all this chaos, it will turn much cooler in the Northeast next week than it has been for the past two weeks or so.

Meanwhile,  a heat wave with some record high temperatures is starting along the West Coast and is likely to continue into the weekend.