 |
| Areas in red are expected to be most likely to get enough freezing rain to damage trees and power lines Monday. |
Areas surrounding the worst of the expected ice won't have a picnic with this, either.
The big storm in the northern Plains is still unleashing lots snow, ice and rain as of Sunday morning. The snow and rain since yesterday has made 2019 the wettest year on record in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The old record was set just last year.
Total snowfall amid near blizzard conditions in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota should go over a foot in many places
This storm is dumping, or will dump, a lot of rain and create a severe weather risk today in the South a the system draws lots of moisture fron the Gulf of Mexico.
If all this makes you think the storm has a lot of moisture to work with, you're right. And that's one key ingredient toward making life miserable in New England and New York on Monday.
That huge influx of moisture will ride up and over a warm front coming at us from the southwest. The problem is, the warm front won't make it through the northern half of New York and New England because of a stubborn chilly high pressure system in Quebec.
The warm air from the south will ride up and over the cold air near the surface that will be draining down from Quebec, setting the region up for the icy mess.
The weather setup has a few simularities to the Great Ice Storm of 1998, but luckily, this one won't be as intense and it won't last nearly as long. So we won't have a disaster like that.
 |
| Areas in yellow are likely to get at least six inches of snow and sleet accumulation. Blue areas will get two to four inches of sleet, snow and some freezing rain |
Still, at this point, it looks like a zone from the Adirondacks, southward into New York's Hudson Valley, southern Vermont, southwestern New Hampshire, western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut are under the gun for a potentially damaging ice storm.
Ice on trees and power lines really starts to cause damage when ice is a quarter inch thick or more. Some spots in the zone I've outlined could easily get more than half an inch of ice from freezing rain.
As you go north and east, more into Vermont and New Hampshire, the amount of freezing rain would decrease if the forecast comes true, but they would get more sleet and snow.
Northern areas, as it stands now, should start as snow, with sleet and a little freezing rain mixing in during the day Monday. Current forecasts indicate four to six inches of sleet and snow - but not much freezing rain - roughly along and north and east of Interstate 89.
The more you head south and west of Interstate 89, the more likely you are to encounter freezing rain on Monday, though these southern areas will get some snow and sleet, too.
Another problem will be wind. Gusts will reach 30 mph, and closer to 40 or 45 mph in some of the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack mountains. Where these strong winds occur along with the freezing rain, the damage to trees and power lines would be magnified.
In the areas where the ice will accumulate the most, be ready for power outages that could last for a couple days. Even longer in more rural areas.
Those of us who will get sleet and snow can expect very difficult travel conditions all day Monday.
Some of this will last into Tuesday as mostly light snow, areas of freezing drizzle and perhaps a bit of plain non-freezing drizzle in the warm pockets continues.
The big caveat is this: Computer models are in good agreement with how this storm will turn out. But if the forecasts are off by only a degree or two either way anywhere in the Northeast, the outcome where you sit could turn out very different.
It's always possible that the worst of the freezing rain will set up north, east, south or west of where current forecasts put it. So keep paying attention for forecast updates.
The year 2019 was pretty stormy in the Northeast. The year is ending true to form.
No comments:
Post a Comment