Humberto Forms, Looks Like It Will Miss United States, But....

Tropical Storm Humberto looking large but disorganized in the
Bahamas Saturday morning. It is expected to organize and
grow into a hurricane once its north of the islands.

As expected Tropical Storm Humberto has formed in the Bahamas.

Even though it's not very strong, it's near the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas, which was basically wiped off the map by Hurricane Dorian a couple weeks ago.  Which means Humberto is going to cause more misery in the northern Bahamas as it slowly strengthens and moves north.

At least it's moving, unlike Dorian. Humberto is expected by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane, but only when it's safely north of the Bahamas.

More good news: It looks like Humberto is going to head east and northeast after that, away from the United States coastline.  

I did mention this week that the overall weather pattern over the western Atlantic Ocean favors tropical storms and hurricanes heading toward the United States. That's due to strong high pressure in this region.

But, timing is everything. While Humberto wants to move north, a weak, temporary dip in the jet stream east of New England will cause an area of weakness in that high pressure. The dip in the jet stream and that weakness looks like it wants to take Humberto out to sea.

This out-to-sea scenario comes with a caveat: It's possible that dip in the jet stream could keep moving on, prompting Humberto to reverse course and head back to the United States. At this point it seems unlikely, but some computer models do show this scenario. It's worth it to watch and see.

Additionally, the weather pattern that is favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes could easily reassert itself. There are several disturbances way out there in the Atlantic Ocean that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Some of them could develop into tropical storms and head toward the United States.

That is just speculation at the moment, but since we're still in the peak of hurricane season, all these systems will need to be watched.

Meanwhile, some residents of Vermont's Champlain Valley could be forgiven if they thought they experienced their own tropical storm this morning.

Of course, there is no tropical storm anywhere near Vermont. But strong high pressure to the east of us, and  cold front coming from the west - which is part of that dip in the jet stream that should take Humberto away from the United States - is funneling strong winds up the Champlain Valley.

I noticed a gust 51 mph at Burton Island and  49 mph at Colchester Reef this morning. On my exposed hillside in St. Albans, I would stay some gusts are going a little over 40 mph and some small branches are down on my property.

This windy state of affairs should continue most of today. Expect a few downed branches and maybe a couple of power failures here and there. As of 8 a.m. today, there were a smattering of outages, mostly in Chittenden County. Statewide, only about 50 homes and businesses were without power, so that's not extreme, thank goodness.

Winds should calm down nicely by this evening.

Forecast For A Windy Friday Stays The Same

It was windy, warm and wet early this morning in the Champlain Valley as a strong storm continues to move across the Great Lakes into Canada.

Wind bends trees in St. Albans Thursday afternoon.
It'll be even windier in Vermont today.  

Pre-dawn temperatures of near 60 degrees were close to normal for July, not the first of November.

That warmth is the first clue it's going to be an odd, busy day in the weather department.

Winds in north-south oriented valleys, like along Lake Champlain, were gusting to near 40 mph in the early morning, and those will increase later today.

It might seem odd to some, but the strongest winds today will come this afternoon, when the rain tapers off and the sun breaks through the clouds at times. Then, winds in Vermont will gust to 50 mph and up to 60 mph in northern New York.

Those bits of sun will come after the storm's cold front comes through. Just ahead of the front, for the rest of this morning and maybe into the early afternoon in eastern Vermont, the showers will continue. A gusty downpour might come through just ahead of the cold front, and don't be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder.

After the front goes through, even stronger winds from several thousand feet above the surface will occasionally be able to dip down to the earth's surface, where we live, which explains why forecasters think the strongest winds will come this afternoon.

Be ready for scattered power failures and some downed branches and trees. My lawn in St Albans, Vermont  is already littered with small branches because winds here have been gusting to at least 40 mph at times since yesterday afternoon.

Usually, it turns colder after a cold front (A cold front being the front part of a big batch of cold air, duh!) but in this case, the chill is lagging quite a ways behind the front.

So we'll wait awhile for the chill to arriv and we'll have a warm Friday. It could make it to 70 degrees in some areas, especially maybe the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River valley.

The record high temperature for today's date in Burlington is 71 degrees set in 1950, and there is a chance we could break that record.

The cold air will come in, of course, and it will start to turn cooler tonight. Saturday will be a transition day, with steady or slowly falling temperatures during the day, with scattered rain showers changing to snow showers and flurries Saturday night.

On Sunday, you'll know its November, as daytime temperatures won't even make it out of the 30s, for highs, there will be a lot of clouds around, and a chilly north breeze will add to the frostiness.

Dramatic Video Shows Falling Tree Almost Killing Cyclist

It's windy in parts of Vermont this Thursday afternoon and it's going to get even windier Friday.

This fallen tree almost killed a cyclist
in Amsterdam the other day.  

Already, in my St. Albans, Vermont yard, there are small branches down after a windy, rainy day.

I'll find more tomorrow, surely. A wind advisory is up for the Green Mountain State for gusts to 50 mph Friday. In northern New York, it's a high wind warning with gusts over 60 mph possible.

Judging from the video in this post, I might want to wait to clean up the branches until after the wind subsides.

In Amsterdam, during that horrible storm they had a couple days ago, a tree in a park blew over. Watch how close the cyclist came to being smushed. Yikes!