Climate Change Indeed Dire. But Most Of Us Won't Die Of It Tomorrow

I'm glad kids are into activism to fight climate change, but let's
stop scaring the bejeezus out of them and let them to
their climate change work. 

Another rather dire climate change report came out this week, one in which it envisions a world in 2050 where society has broken down.

At least a billion people would be displaced.  Large parts of huge cities like Mumbai, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Manila and Shanghai would be abandoned. The weather would be too hot for human survival in major food growing places in the world.

The heat and a decline in insect populations would mean severe food shortages and skyrocketing prices worldwide. Wars and upheaval would occur as nations struggle to deal with refugees and shortages. The internal cohesion of behemoth nations like China and the United States would unravel.

All this just 31 years from now.

As CNN describes it, the report by the Australian-based National Center for Climate Restoration is not a peer-reviewed scientific study, but tries to model future scenarios based on current research.

I can see the plausibility of this worst case scenario like this Australian study envisions. I also want to be careful here. I'll preface by saying that yes, climate change is an existential threat.

Things are already bad. People are dying from climate change. It will keep getting worse as long as the world keeps heating up. We need to really mobilize on climate change, right now if not sooner. I'm not making excuses for inaction.

For some reason, though, I don't think things will go to hell quite as quickly as a lot of the dire predictions say they will. Humans are adaptable. It's just that we need to start the adaptation now. I also think we have the energy and gumption to do that. We just need to let that energy blossom.

I understand the fear factor in these reports. Fear is motivating. Humankind does need to be motivated. I really don't think the world will have completely gone to hell in a handbasket by 2050.

But by then, more people will have died, or will have become climate refugees, or lost their livelihood.  So we owe it to them to work on climate change, even if the numbers aren't as big as the scary forecasts predict.

I also worry that the most dire, and in my opinion exaggerated fearful positions would paralyze us. It's too big to handle, so I'll just have to watch the world end, would be the reaction. That would be counterproductive, to say the least.  

Since last summer, people have been harping on a UN report that says we have 12 years to drastically transform the world's energy, food and transport systems to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.

If we don't do this, the 1.5 degrees of warming will have been reached by between 2030 and 2052.  Again, that scenario is bad.  It will make current conditions look like a piece of cake.

The girls holding this sign are probably right about current
governments, but if we don't instill fear in these kids,
I think they will do a better job than the current generation. 

But this 12 years to act mantra seems to have become to some a message that if the world isn't entire transformed in 12 years, we all die in 12 years.

Again, this is making people too fearful, too despondent over the future.  It's almost as if the peddlers of the most dire warnings want people to give up.

Any effort to combat climate change will help. Minor efforts will only help just a tiny bit. Major efforts could really turn things around. Let's be real, though, and not panicked.

Panic leads to poor decision making. Even the UN report from last year addresses this. According to Scidev.net:

"'Any poorly designed policy is going to have unexpected consequences,' says Joyashree Roy, an economics research at Jadavpur University in India, who coordinated the report's summary for policymakers. 'For example, if we adopted bioenergy at massive scale, this may lead to competition for land, which in turn may cause food prices to spike.'"

These words of caution are lost in the popular culture. I have one small example.

Yesterday, I saw the new movie "Godzilla: King Of The Monsters."  It wasn't a very good movie, frankly. But one thing that struck me was how a character in the film said that humans had become a fever, an illness affecting Planet Earth. The monsters in the movie were working to re-establish a healthy equilibrium to the planet.

Yes, I know that's silly. Godzilla monsters are not the solution to climate change or anything else. But I'm struck by the total lack of optimism that human beings can turn things around. And that humans are entirely a problem. As we all know, some humans can be purely evil, some glorious. Most of us muddle through and do the best we can.

I know at first, second and third glance there's not much cause for optimism. Egocentric politicians worldwide, including, ahem, certain so-called leaders in the United States, are far more interested in establishing cults of personalities for themselves rather than work on solving the world's problems.

Too many so-called leaders are in it to enrich themselves, and not help humankind.

Still, I remember my late father describing his youthful journey through the Great Depression and World War II.   His is known as the "Greatest Generation."

The Depression and World War II were existential crises, just as climate change is. I sensed in my father's oral history a sense that society had decided at the time that we would get through this, that we would prevail.  There was misery, yes. But optimism that we could prevail.

Franklin D. Roosevelt's first inauguration, uttered in the depths of the Great Depression contained the famous line, "The only thing to fear is fear itself."

I wish Roosevelt was around now to rally us like that. In an odd sense, I wonder if people are perversely taking comfort in fear. When you're fearful, you want to wrap yourself in a cocoon, to avoid all the scary things out there. Like the Godzilla monster of climate change.

Now is the time to be bold. Now is the time for our leaders to stop with the fear mongering and start giving us real tasks for us to collectively hold on to.

I notice young people are striking and marching in an effort to prod the old men who run the world to do something with climate change. That's good. But since the old men peddle in scare tactics in an attempt to cow these young people, to control the population and line their own pockets, it's time for the young people to do more than march.

That will take bravery. Let's tell these kids to go ahead and take charge, and to overcome the despair the old guard is trying to instill in them. And yes, the scary climate change scenario press releases are in part the workings of the old guard. Everyone likes their own fifedoms. And they don't want to give up power. Scare tactics work. At least sometimes.

Climate change won't end the world in 12 or 30 years. We still have a chance for the youngsters to create the next "Greatest Generation." whose good effects will linger for dozens of future generations.

I think they're up to the task. The kid are alright.