Monday, June 19, 2017

Western New York Got It Sunday. Central New England Is Storm Target Today.

Christina Nolan captured this lightning in Georgia,
Vermont last night. Image via @SeanMParker on Twitter. 
Most of the anticipated severe weather and localized flooding on Sunday concentrated itself in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania, where there were several reports of strong winds with thunderstorms.

The storms weakened, as anticipated, as they moved into Vermont last night. The only report of storm damage so far in the Green Mountain State was a tree down on a power line in Fairfax.

Today, the storms will fire up again, this time further east. The flash flood watches remain in effect in all but coastal New England, in eastern New York and down into northern New Jersey.

All of these areas are at risk of severe thunderstorms along with the local flash floods today. It appears the biggest threat for damaging wind gusts in thunderstorms would be in central New England, and on up into southeastern Vermont and western New Hamsphire.

The zone under the gun for severe thunderstorms also extends down into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and into the Washington DC area.

In all these areas just mentioned the atmospheric conditions are even more welcoming for severe storms than they were Sunday over western New York and Pennsylvania, so I expect quite a few reports of mostly straight line wind damage by the end of the day.

I still wouldn't be surprised to hear of a quick tornado spin up or two in, say, western Massachusetts, the lower Hudson Valley of New York and on into the Mid Atlantic states.

Up here in New England,  localized flash flooding remains a concern. It could happen anywhere in the region, but the most likely spots at this point seem to be in southern and eastern Vermont, New Hampshire, western Maine, western Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.

Not everybody is going to get flooded out, but moisture levels are high, so if a particular town or region gets bullseyed by an especially strong thunderstorm or two, it'll rain so hard that a flash flood would crop up in no time.

That's why they call them flash floods, to be Captain Obvious.

As I mentioned yesterday, thunderstorms might line up like box cars on a railroad track in a few spots, so a few unlucky spots in the Northeast might get hit by repeated torrential thunderstorms today, and that would make the flash flooding even worse.

I always mention that with summer thunderstorms and flash floods, it's always impossible to tell who's going to get hit the hardest and when even a couple of hours in advance.

Damaging weather in the Northeast today, including here in Vermont, will be hit and miss. The best thing to do is have a weather radio or at least reliable media nearby, as National Weather Service offices throughout the region will be blasting out warnings for severe thunderstorms and flash floods as the storms develop today.

You might also want to cancel - right now - that hiking trip or boating excursion you had planned for today. There will be better weather eventually.

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