Not Cindy, But A Very Wet Day Up Here In New England. Flash Flooding?

UPDATE



This graphic/radar image from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington, Vermont shows heavy rain over northern
New York and Vermont early this morning, with more downpours
looming to our west for later today.

A flash flood watch has been issued for a strip of north central Vermont, basically and roughly within 30 miles either side of Route 2.
The flash flood watch also covers a good chunk of northern New York.

The rain really came down hard in this region this morning, with up to two inches of rain reported.

The ground is soaked, and more downpours loom.
The warm front that caused the heavy rain has moved to the north, and we're in very, very humid air. Any showers and storms that form will bring torrential rains, and flash flooding is now a real risk in much of northern Vermont.

As of 12:30 p.m., weather radar is frankly ominous. Heavy downpours were lurking in New York state and strengthening. Bands of heavy downpours look like they might want to repeatedly move over the same spots.

Flash flooding, as the name implies, happens fast, so be aware of gushes of water coming down from the hills. Don't drive through flooded roads, because even shallow water can sweep a car away, and you don't know if the road is washed away beneath the water.

Take care this afternoon, northern Vermont and northern New York peeps!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I awoke in northwest Vermont today to gusty south winds, bursts of heavy rain and, occasionally, the sound of thunder.

Tropical Storm Cindy?  

Nah, no and nope, but the now-deceased tropical storm is having some influence on the weather here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

There was impressive band of rain and thunderstorms all the way from Wisconsin, across Michgan, through southern Ontario, across northern New York and on into Vermont and the rest of New England early this morning.

That was a very active warm front coming through. Some warm fronts, like this one, produce a lot of precipitation. Others go by with little fanfare.

This warm front, in part, had some moisture to work with from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, which was still located in the South and prompting flood watches today from Louisiana to southwest Pennsylvania.

By the way, Cindy did cause flooding and some tornadoes Thursday after coming ashore and weakening to a very wet tropical depression. One tornado caused damage and injuries around Birmingham, Alabama.

There might not be much flooding in Vermont or northern New England today, but some of us have already gotten pretty wet, and will get wetter.  If there is any flooding, it's most likely across northern Vermont and New York, which got the biggest soaking this morning, with more than an inch of rain.

And those storms this afternoon will be torrential. Plus, I saw one weather model that showed up to five inches of rain in parts of  the northern third of Vermont today, which would cause some pretty substantial flash flooding.

That's not a definite, but it's something to watch. It depends on whether thunderstorms develop and repeatedly go over the same areas. If there is flash flooding today, the best bet is north of Route 2.

Later this morning, the warm front will have lifted into Canada, taking its occasionally heavy rain with it.

However, we will be in a warm, somewhat unstable and very humid atmosphere, due, again, in part to the remnants of Cindy still sitting well to our south.  The lull in the rain late this morning and maybe early this afternoon will come to an end.

With a cold front well to our west, but approaching us, showers and thunderstorms will break out again this afternoon and evening.

 Unlike the morning's rain, which pretty much gave everybody in the northern half of New York and most of Vermont a good soaking, the showers and thunderstorms later today will be more hit and miss.

Some people will only get a little more rain, while others get blasted by torrential downpours. It's a roll of the dice.  Again, northern Vermont is the most likely scene of this.

It's possible some storms later today could end up being severe, too, with local strong gusty winds and hail.

This won't be a big time severe event. The atmosphere just isn't right to produce lots of organized, intense storms.   Still, a  few storms could get somewhat wild. But the bigger story will be the heavy rainfall today.

We'll keep showers in the forecast Sunday through Monday, though none of these days will be a washout. Just hit and miss stuff like we had over much of the past week.

Looks like it might turn warmer and drier for a couple days later next week, though.