|Areas in yellow stand a slight chance of getting severe|
thunderstorms this afternoon. This includes parts
of western Vermont.
Not everybody is going to get a severe storm, but a few places might.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says the best chance of severe weather - a slight chance - runs from Addison and Rutland counties in Vermont southwestward through eastern and central New York and then down into central Pennsylvania.
In this zone, a few storms could produce gusty winds, hail, and torrential downpours. Within this slight risk zone, there is even a miniscule chance of a tornado or two. But don't hold your breath on that prospect.
I'll stress that most of Vermont and New York will just get showers and garden variety thunderstorms today. Only a few places will get scary storms. In fact, there's still a chance we'll get lucky and see absolutely no severe weather.
And no, we can't tell you in advance which towns get the scary storms and which towns just get May showers.
One thing that might inhibit the development of severe storms is overcast skies ahead of the expected storms. Sunshine would have increased atmospheric instability, which would help with the development of storms.
Also, an initial band of showers coming into eastern New York late this morning and Vermont by around noon could also help quash storms later.
However, there's plenty of cold air aloft and a weather disturbance coming in from the west, so that could help set up some pretty good activity.
There is a weather model called the HRRR which forecasts conditions over the next few hours. It's usually relatively accurate with predicted showers and thunderstorms in the near term, but of course it's not perfect.
The HRRR has that initial band of showers and maybe embedded thunderstorms coming into Vermont by noon.
Following that, the HRRR depicts a stronger band of thunderstorms forming in central New York and then moving into central Vermont around 4 or 5 p.m today. For what it's worth, this forecast model has the strongest storms late this afternoon very roughly within 30 miles of a line from Middlebury to St. Johnsbury.
Within this zone, there could be some locally very heavy rain. Widespread flash flooding is NOT expected, but there could be a couple trouble spots with water here and there if the rain is particularly heavy in a few towns.
Remember, that forecast is NOT a guarantee and NOT set in stone. It's just a general idea. Could come true, or maybe not.
Your best bet today is just to keep an eye on the sky and head indoors if you hear thunder or see dark clouds gathering to your west and south.
By the way, there's also a very good chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, too. A few of the storms could be on the strong side, but most won't be.