Friday, January 6, 2017

Southeast Winter Storm Strengthens; To Clip Boston

For what it's worth, here's the Weather Channel's
opinion on snow totals with this weekend's storm.
Lavender and purple areas would get five to
12 inches of snow. 
That storm in the Southeast, expected to develop today, will strengthen into quite a little powerhouse by the time it gets to the North Carolina/Virginia border tonight and Saturday.

This won't by any means be the Worst Storm Ever, despite the hype in some circles on social media.

But it will have a pretty good impact down in the Southeast.

Another change: Once the storm gets off to the ocean, it will be a little closer to the coast than originally thought. That means southeastern New England will get a plowable snow out of this, but I still think there will be little, if any effects from this here in Vermont.

Before I get into the specifics, here's the caveat I always offer: Winter storms are always tricky, and it's still certainly possible that snowfall predictions currently in effect could change a lot, either up or down.

Anyway, here we go:

The trail of snow in the Southeast will intensify the more north and east you go. The Atlanta metro area is still under the gun for two to five inches of snow. By the time you get to Raleigh, North Carolina, six to ten inches is a good bet.

Again, no biggy, except that this is happening in the South, where it's not so easy to deal with these relatively rare winter storms.  Things will be pretty screwed up until the snow begins to melt in earnest Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

The "winners" in this storm are going to be the northeastern corner of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia, where a couple places could pick up a foot or more of snow.

As you can imagine, winter storm warnings are up in a stripe from central Alabama all the way to extreme southeastern Maryland.

In New England, the storm will clip the southeastern third of the region. Today, a weaker first storm is affecting parts of Rhode Island, eastern Connecticut and southeastern Massachusetts with one to four inches of snow.

The storm coming out of the Southeast will intensify quite a bit offshore, and probably come close enough to maybe give a good six inches of snow Saturday afternoon and night to the Boston area, and up to a foot on Cape Cod and the islands.

A winter storm watch is up for eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and the southeastern third of Massachusetts.  

Up here in Vermont, I suppose the storm could come close enough to scatter a few flakes in the southeastern corner of the state, near Brattleboro. The rest of Vermont will just get some high, thin clouds out of this.

Another moisture starved weather system will come through from the west and northwest Sunday dropping some snow showers on Vermont then. That'll be good for a dusting to two inches in many valleys, with a few inches of fluff possible up in the mountains.

Looking ahead to next week, a piece of that "atmospheric river" flood/storminess in California will break off and generate a storm in the middle of the nation that will pass to the west of New England Tuesday and Wednesday.

Unfortunately for snow lovers, that means it looks like another round of ice changing to rain, along with gusty winds Tuesday night and Wednesday.

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