 |
| Duck boat sinking in a severe Missouri thunderstorm on Thursday, killing 17 people. |
But there has been one very, very nagging question. What was that rickety thing doing out there in such a bad storm?
Ripley Entertainment, owns Ride the Ducks company in Branson. Jim Pattison Jr, president of Ripley, told CBS News he'd been told that it was "an almost micro storm event.....It was a fast-moving storm that basically came out of nowhere...The storm was moving at a higher rate of speed than expected."
Sorry, Jim. I think what you're doing is trying to create a new reality to possibly influence a jury during the inevitable lawsuits that will come out of this tragedy. Meteorologists will talk about what really happened during the litigation, but I have to wonder if Pattison was trying to plant a seed of doubt into whoever will make rulings and decisions in the likely lawsuits.
Pattison did say that given the conditions, the boat should not have been in the water.
Still, as many in the media reported: No, the severe thunderstorm did NOT "come out of nowhere." It was moving fast, but meteorologists were tracking it and had a good handle on the timing of when it would hit. It was not a "micro storm." It was a pretty big and nasty thunderstorm complex.
Also, as the Kansas City Star reported, there were lots of warnings about the oncoming storm rushing in from the northwest.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted as of 11:30 a.m. Thursday, more than seven hours before the storm hit. A watch means keep an eye to the sky, as there's a good possibility of severe thunderstorms somewhere in the area. That means think twice about launching rickety duck boats, folks.
The complex of storms formed in Kansas, and reports of wind damage began coming in from eastern Kansas more than nine hours before the storm hit Table Rock Lake. National Weather Service meterologists closely tracked this thunderstorm complext during its entire lifespan.
Roughly an hour before the storms hit the Branson area, Springfield, Missouri, to the north, reported a wind gust of 74 mph.
The National Weather Service office in Springfield, Missouri issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 6:32 p.m for an area including Branson and Table Rock Lake, where the duck boat was.
The warning mentioned likely wind gusts in the 70 mph range were on their way.
It's still unclear exactly what time the duck boat departed from shore. It was scheduled to leave at around 5:30 p.m., according to a Weather Channel time line, but might have left as late as 6:45 p.m., says the Kansas City Star.
A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for an area just northwest of, but not including Table Rock Lake at 5:45 p.m., according to the Weather Channel time line.
Even if the duck boat left shore before the severe thunderstorm warning was issued, the operators should have known bad storms were looming to the north and northwest, Reports say the duck boat left the dock for the lake excursion as late as around 6:45 p.m. Was anybody watching the weather? The sky? Did anyone associated with Ride the Ducks review weather radar or check for storm warnings?
They should have, that's for sure. A lot of attention went to a tweet and Forbes article from Marshall Shepherd, the Director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia that stated what should have been the obvious:
"It is 2018, not 1901. The meteorological community has advanced weather satellites, weather radar and models. Storms like this do not 'come out of nowhere.'"
Shepherd, ever the polite, competent scientist, isn't nearly as nasty and rude as I am, but his Forbes article should be required reading for anyone planning on doing anything outside. At any time.
Shepherd also highlighted guidance developed by NOAA and the National Safe Boating Council. The guidance, again, should be obvious to everyone, including people who conduct duck boat tours:
"Before going boating, fishing, diving or enjoying other water sports, check the forecast from weather.gov or your favorite weather source...If severe weather is predicted, stay home or go earlier than normal. Be prepared to head to shore quickly."
The guidance says you should have a NOAA weather radio with you which would sent immediate alerts if a storm warning is issued.
Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological Society, also highlighted a report from that organization in his Forbes article that basically says organizers of outdoor events and attractions don't really have an excuse when bad weather causes tragedies. Although the AMS puts it in much more sober terms than I am doing. Members of the AMS are a bunch of serious scientists, after all.
According to the AMS report:
"A common theme in the after-action reports and service assessments for these disasters is that the weather plan was inadequate to deal with a comprehensive portfolio of weather risk, or a weather plan didn't exist. In many instances, organizers simply 'hoped that we wouldn't get hit.'
Reducing the weather risk to life and property at venues and public gatherings is a priority for the weather enterprise and the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Knowledge of, and investment in, pre-event planning and mitigation serves the nation economically as well as socially."
In other words, my admittedly blunt, sarcastic words, careless event organizers really need to pay attention to weather hazards and stop killing people because they don't. It's not all about making money, you know.
Not all the facts are out yet in the Missouri Duck Boat tragedy, so it's hard to draw exact conclusions as to who is at fault and to what extent. But I believe there was a big time screwup, with awful results.
This is especially true given the vessel: Duck boats need calm water, and the canopies overhead tend to trap people when the vessels sink. That's probably what happened in Missouri.
The lesson learned: Always be cognizant of the weather if you're organizing an outdoor event. And if you plan on going to an outdoor concert, a duck boat excursion or anything else outside, bring along a weather radio. Adjust your plans if there are weather alerts.
And if your gut tells you the weather is too iffy to do what you planned to do, definitely trust your gut.
No comments:
Post a Comment