Huge North Country Snowstorm Still On Tap Wednesday, Thursday

Those of you waking up in northern New York and northern New England this Tuesday morning can be forgiven for deluding yourself into thinking we won't get that huge snowstorm that's in the forecast.

The aftermath of a 25.8 inch snowstorm
 in Burlington, Vermont in March, 2011. While the upcoming
storm might not be as bad as that, it will still
be a doozy, with more than a foot likely.  

After all, even before dawn broke, temperatures in many areas were already above freezing, and readings are heading into the low 40s this afternoon.

Spring has sprung, right?

Um, totally, TOTALLY wrong.

Winter storm warnings are still flying for northern New York, most of Vermont, the northern half of New Hampshire and western Maine and for good reason.

These areas are still under the gun for anywhere between 10 and 24 inches of snow Wednesday and Thursday. For many of these areas, this will be the biggest snowstorm of the winter.

Over the past couple of days, there's been a bit of an evolution on where the roughest weather will set up.  You might remember a couple of days ago I was telling you I thought the heaviest snow would hit southern Vermont and New Hampshire

That's no longer the case.

For many days the computer forecasting models have indicated the storm would move from the Ohio Valley to the New England coast, all the while strengthening.

That forecast still holds, but each successive run of the computer forecasting models have nudged the path of the storm a little to the north.

That means the band of heaviest snow with the storm is more north than originally forecast, and the areas where sleet and rain would mix in have also moved north.  I think the deepest snow in Vermont, for instance,  will be north of Route 4, not along and south of that road like I thought two days ago.

As of Tuesday morning, the question is, once the storm gets to near the East Coast, will the core of the system travel roughly along Interstate 95, or roughly along Interstate 90, better known as the Mass Pike in New England.

If the storm takes I-95, the rain and sleet wouldn't make it too much north of a Glens Falls, to New York, to Rutland, Vermont to Laconia, New Hampshire line.

If the system opts for the Mass Pike, the period of sleet and rain and snow mixture could get as far as the southern Adirondacks and central Vermont.

Right now, my guess, with the warm air lingering in northern New England, the storm will go a little north. A brief period of sleet could make it as far north as Burlington and Montpelier, Vermont, though those places will get almost all snow.

The Adirondacks, the northern half of Vermont and much of northern New Hampshire are in for more than a foot of snow, as it seems now.  Some towns might clock in near two feet, especially in the Green Mountains.  I noticed the National Weather Service in South Burlington is guessing about 15 inches total for the Burlington, Vermont area.

Even in the north the first few inches of snow Wednesday will probably be rather wet and heavy, while snow later in the storm will be much more powdery.

Down toward Rutland, Vermont and White River Junction, enough sleet and rain might mix in, along with the snow being wet and heavy during the first part of the storm, amounts might trend down toward about a foot.

In New York's Capitol District, in far southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, a good chunk of the storm could be rain. Due to the uncertainty, the winter storm watch in those parts has not yet been upgraded to a warning.

More to the south, there might be enough rain for street flooding, followed by a flash freeze Wednesday night.

While the amount of warm air that sneaks in during the first half of the storm Wednesday and Wednesday evening adds a bit of uncertainty to the forecast, aspects of the second half of the storm are much more certain.

As the storm gets to the New England coast, it will pull down some cold air from Canada and temperatures will crash Wednesday night into the single numbers and low teens. North winds will pick up, too, gusting to 30 mph by dawn.

If Wednesday's drive home will be rough, Thursday morning's commute in much of northern New England will be much worse.  It'll still be snowing hard, it will be very cold, near 10 degrees, winds will howl from the north to create a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Visibility will be poor.

It would probably be a good idea if you can to start bringing work home with you so you can work at home instead of the office Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.

The snow will taper off southwest to northeast Thursday, lasting the longest on the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains.

Thursday night will be bitter cold, near 0, and Friday will only get into the upper 20s, pretty far below normal for March.

Temperatures will briefly get to near normal Saturday, up near 40, before another cold wave sends temperatures below freezing again Sunday through about Tuesday or Wednesday.

There's a chance of another storm Monday, but early indications are that one will pretty much miss New England.  I'm kind of hoping it does, this is plenty of snow, thank you.

March can bring the biggest storms of the winter.  The warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold. So warm air feeding into storms from the south often have more punch in March than they do in January, creating heavier snow when the warmth collides with the cold air north of a storm.

The result is some epic March storms. Of course, the granddaddy of them all is the Blizzard of 1888, which dumped up to 50 inches of snow on New England.

More recently, the Blizzard of March, 1993 poured two feet of snow on a huge swath of the country from north Georgia through New England.

The big Town Meeting Day snowstorm in Vermont in 2001 dumped 22.9 inches of snow on Burlington, Vermont. And in the epically snowy winter of 2011, an immense storm deposited two feet of snow on Vermont. Burlingon had its third biggest snowstorm on record on March 6-7, 2011 with 25.8 inches.

Never-Ending Winter Continues This Week With Snowstorm, Chill, Wind

Gee, I tell you at this rate, Fourth of July fireworks displays in Vermont will be canceled this year because of blizzards.

Another snowstorm is due in Vermont and surrounding
states Wednesday and Thursday, followed by more cold air.
I'm beginning to wonder if I'll still be photographing
scenes like this in the summer.  

The never-ending winter of 2014 shows no signs of letting go. We've got a small snowfall under our belt from last night, another small one tonight, and a big snowfall Wednesday and Thursday to deal with.

I found about an inch of new snow outside my door in St. Albans, Vermont this morning, about what had been forecast.

There was a general dusting to two inches of snow across northern New York and northern New England overnight.

A similar snowfall, a dusting to three inches, is due as another small storm races by tonight.

If you're looking for any sign of spring in northern New England, Tuesday is as close as you're going to get. And it won't be too close, believe me. Snow showers will taper off in the morning, and afternoon highs will get well into the 30s, with a couple low 40s in spots.

Big whoop.

Then we get into what will be Storm of the Week. So far, all the computer models are in pretty good agreement a storm will come out of the Ohio Valley Wednesday, skirt the southern New England coast and go out to sea during the day Thursday, strengthening all the while.

That puts western, central and eastern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine in the best spot for the heaviest snow.

In those areas, it looks like 6 to 12 inches is a good bet, and winter storm watches are flying for the region Wednesday and Thursday.

In Vermont, specifically, the least amount of snow will probably come down in the far northwest, with maybe 6 inches or so in the northern Champlain Valley. The most snow will be on east facing slopes of the central and southern Green Mountains, where more than a foot seems likely.

So towns like Mount Holly, Ludlow, Dover, Woodford, maybe all the way north to Brookfield will get more than a foot of snow, if curent forecasts hold.

In New York, the far northwest in the St. Lawrence Valley will get a little less than six inches of snow, because they'll be more distant from the storm. South and east of Albany, into the southern half of New England, rain will mix in, especially early in the storm, so amounts will be less there.

Central and northern New Hampshire and much of Maine is also in for more than six inches of snow.

I suppose a miracle could happen and the storm's track or intensity could shift, and that would change the snow forecast, but right now I'm moderately confident the forecast is basically right.

Thursday will be a windy, cold day as the storm departs. Gusts to around 30 mph will blow the snow around, and many northern New England towns won't get out of the teens all day.

Under clearing skies, yet another below zero night is likely Thursday night across much of northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

Normal lows this time of year are in the upper teens and highs are in the upper 30s across northern New England, so you see how bad this is.

It might get "warmish," I suppose, next Saturday with highs in the upper 30s, but that won't melt much of the new snow. And cold, wintry weather looks like it will hang tough beyond this week and through much of next week. In fact, I don't see any signs of spring until at least early April, perhaps beyond.

Oh, and a week from today? There are some signs of another snowfall then.

So yes, maybe the Arctic ice cap is melting, but if this keeps up, maybe we'll get a new Arctic ice cap in New England.

I'm kidding of course. At least I think I am.  I hope I am?

If You Love Winter, Good News: Big Storm, More Cold

Wow, talk about a party goer who just won't leave!

There's a decent chance much of
Vermont and other parts of the Northeast
could end up looking like this
Wednesday and Thursday.  

Winter, which wasn't exactly fashionably late when it arrived last November, is hanging on in the Midwest and Northeast and it's not going to go home and sleep off another season of cold and snow anytime soon.

Look for a likely fairly big snowstorm midweek in parts of the Ohio Valley and the Northeast, (including here in Vermont) and no huge breaks from the cold in the Midwest and Northeast for at least a week to 10 days.

Here in Vermont, we have another sunny and bright, but chilly day, with temperatures that won't climb above freezing all day. (Normal highs this time of year are between about 35 and 42)

A couple of weak weather systems are zipping from northwest to southeast from the upper Midwest to northern New England.

One that was coming across Lake Superior Sunday morning will deposit a dusting to three inches of snow on Vermont and nearby northern New York and New Hampshire Sunday night and Monday morning.

A similar system will drop about the same amount of snow on the same region Monday night.

Then we watch a storm developing around Missouri and Kentucky Tuesday. The forecasting computer models are in better agreement on what's going to happen with this storm, though pesky details still need to be worked out.

It's thought the storm will pick up quite a bit of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it moves from the Ohio Valley to pretty near Cape Cod Thursday morning.

If this bears out, there will be a stripe of fresh snow, six inches deep or more, from central Illinois through Ohio into interior Pennsylvania and New York and into much of New England.

It remains to be seen exactly where the heaviest snow will set up.  Here in Vermont, it looks at this point like the entire state will get at least a few inches of snow, with up to a foot possible in the southeastern half of the the Green Mountain State. Those high totals are also a decent bet in much of southern New Hampshire and the Capital District of New York.

This isn't set in stone yet!   There's still a chance the storm could move more to the south than we're thinking now, in which case northern New York, and the northern halves of Vermont and New Hampshire won't get much snow

What this blog, this space, for updates as the event gets closer.

What snow is on the ground, and any new snow that comes in the next week isn't going to melt anytime soon. It is March, not January, so temperatures will manage get a little above freezing in many areas Monday and Tuesday, but it won't be a huge thaw.

After the larger storm goes by, it will pull more cold air from Canada to keep us wintry. There could be a bit of a mini thaw next Saturday, but it won't be warm enough, or last long enough to melt much snow.

The first glimmer of hope for a thaw that could last maybe three or four days comes around in about 10 to 14 days. But if long range forecasts are right (definitely an iffy proposition) more Arctic blasts come after that.

It looks like winter might last well into April this year.

Not good news in my book.  

WCAX-TV Weatherman Erases Subzero Cold With Alternate Temperature Scale

One day last week, weatherman Gary Sadowski at WCAX-TV in Burlington, Vermont sensed viewers were sick of the daily grind of waking up to see more subzero cold.  Bundle up!

Temperatures Thursday morning in northern Vermont
New Hampshire and New York. The numbers are
correct. This is just in the Kelvin temperature scale. 

Sadowski solved the problem by just going to a different, warmer looking temperature scale.

So, Thursday morning, it was 252 in Burlington, Vermont, 246 in Morrisville, Vermont and a cooler, more comfortable 241 degrees in Saranac Lake, N.Y.

Sadowski used the Kelvin Scale, in which absolute zero, the coldest it can ever theoretically get in the universe, is the number 0.

Such big numbers on the Kelvin scale might have warmed viewers a bit.

But of course people got a cold slap of reality when they stepped out their doors after watching Sadowski's weather forecast. In the more familiar Fahrenheit scale, it was 6 below in Burlington, minus 17 in Morrisville, and a numbing 26 below in Saranac Lake.

Let's hope Sadowski doesn't resort to the Kelvin scale in the heat of summer. He'll really make us fee roasted. That's because 95 degrees Fahrenheit is 308 degrees on the Kelvin scale.

(Sort of) A Break In Winter, But Watch Out!

Today begins sort of a break in the long, long winter in the Northeast and Midwest, but don't get used to it.

We're going to have a slight break to winter
weather over the next few days, but there's a chance
we could go back to scenes like this by next Thursday.  

Here in northern New England, afternoon temperatures might actually flirt with the 32 mark, or even go  a tad above it on most days today through Tuesday. (Sunday looks cooler)

Under normal circumstances in early March, this isn't a big deal, but considering how cold it's been, I take this as a welcome improvement.

Burlington, Vermont has endured 11 consecutive days below freezing through yesterday, and nine days in which the low temperature was under 10 degrees.

That's impressively cold for late February and early March.

It'll probably sneak above freezing in Burlington today and tomorrow, but just barely.

The high sun angle of March has started to melt the snow in sunny corners, giving us a hint of spring in the low elevations. That trend will continue the next few days, though light snows every other day or night will slow that process.

And here's what I mean you shouldn't get used to the slightly milder air with that slight hint of spring. I think winter will come roaring back by the middle of next week, with a return to daytime highs below freezing.

Worse, there's the possibility, JUST the possibility of a substantial snowstorm for the interior Northeast on Thursday. Some computer models bring a pretty good sized nor'easter to the coast, while others take a storm well out to sea.

Don't hang your hat on this forecast yet, but there could be some big snows in parts of the interior mid-Atlantic and Northeast. My first guess, and don't take this as gospel, is the best chance of heavy snow goes from interior Virginia, Pennsylvania and through around Albany, N.Y., into southern Vermont, western Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine.

Again, that's just an initial guess. Don't latch onto any forecast about this storm until Monday at the earliest. I'm sure my forecast will change as we get closer to the event. If there is an event.

But the sad news is, although it's gotten a little better out there, true spring is going to have to wait some more. Sigh.

Wicked Stormy Day in Florida

Yeah, OK, it was much warmer in Florida today than in the frigid Northeast, but that doesn't mean it was particularly pleasant down there.

@KWGregGerwin posted this view of a
shelf cloud in Key West, Fla. today.  

A strong storm system came off the Gulf of Mexico and really hammered the southern half of the Florida pennisula with severe thunderstorms and even a few tornados.

As of 6 p.m. there were three reports of tornados in Florida. Luckily, none of them were incredibly strong.

Also, some thunderstorms produced winds of over 60 mph. Not to mention dangerous lightning, torrential downpours and dramatic clouds.

Things are settling down now. But this is just the beginning of severe thunderstorm and tornado season.

Despite some horrific tornados in 2013 (Moore and El Reno, Oklahoma in May, Washington, Illinois in November, for instance) the number of tornadoes last year was abnormally low.

There's no telling what this year will bring. On the bright side, there's no sign of a lot of tornadoes coming along over the next few days.

A funnel cloud over Tampa Bay today.  

I grabbed this still from a web cam video of very
strong winds sweeping Marco Island, Florida as
a "bow echo" squall line came ashore from the Gulf of Mexico.  

Great Lakes Are Really, Really Frozen

Reversing a trend in recent years in which the Great Lakes don't freeze nearly as much as they once did, the lakes are now 91 percent frozen.

Satellite photos compare ice cover on the Great Lakes
this March and last. Click on the image to make
it bigger and easier to see.  

That's near the record of 94.7 percent set in 1973, according to LiveScience.

It's not clear whether we'll break that record since temperatures are expected to warm up a bit over the next few days in parts of the Great Lakes region.

Blame that persistent jet stream pattern that has kept Arctic air flowing over the Great Lakes all winter.

In fact, the Great Lakes more often than not were in the core of the super cold blasts that kept coming down from the North Pole this winter.

Though not set in stone, the iced over lakes, and the fact the ice will slow the warming of the water in the spring, might mean the cold Great Lakes might contribute to some chill on land in parts of the Midwest and Northeast this spring.

We'll have to wait and see on that.