When Will Winter REALLY Get Here? (Spoiler: Possibly Around Dec. 9)

NOAA's long range forecast indicates a change to
colder weather in the Northeast (in blue) NOAA
says this forecast is conservative, and the cold
could be stronger and more extensive than shown
here. Only time will tell. 

It snowed a little bit again, as expected, across much of Vermont and surrounding areas last night and early this morning, giving another touch of winter to the landscape.

But with temperatures hovering near the freezing mark this morning and forecast highs in the 40s starting tomorrow and lasting through the week, you might be asking, when will winter really slam us?

Although I don't believe in the absolute accuracy of long range forecasts - those that look ahead more than five days or so - there are some pretty strong signals that the full force of winter will arrive around December 9 or 10.

That zonal, west to east weather pattern I talked about the other day that's been keeping Arctic cold more or less at bay looks like it will begin to break down a few days before that rough December 9 or 10 target date.

The jet stream will buckle, forming a dip centered somewhere near the Great Lakes. That will open the door for Arctic air to really stream into the Plains, Great Lakes and the Northeast. The forecast for the second and third weeks of December can't get much more specific than that because it's so far off.

Nobody is sure if it will feature subzero cold or just moderate chill. I'm sure snow will be in the mix, but there's no way of telling this far in advance if we're talking about light stuff or full fledged snowstorms.

For you winter sports enthusiasts who just can't wait until December 10 or so, remember this is snow in the mountains. Despite the relatively mild forecast, it will be cold enough to make snow at night at most resorts in New York, Vermont and the rest of the north country.

For what it's worth, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has gone conservative with their forecast for after December 9, depicting only a small area of below normal temperatures from the Great Lakes to northern New England.

But with forecasts of the deep dip in the jet stream over eastern north America and abnormally warm air trapped in western and northern North America, NOAA says the cold could easily be more extensive than they're forecasting right now.  And some versions of these long range forecasts for mid-December are classic ones for New England, bringing lots of snow and sustained chilly weather.

One more caveat: I told you I don't fully trust long range forecasts and neither should anybody else. This December 9 or 10 target for winter weather's arrival could still be a bust.  The computer models are in general agreement on this upcoming weather pattern change, but they could still all be wrong.

I'm just giving you a heads up for a potential change, is all I'm doing. So, if you like it relatively mild, enjoy it, for now.

We Just Ended One Of The Warmest Vermont Novembers On Record

An unsuall sight: Foliag still clings to trees amid
temperatures approaching 70 in early November
in Richmond, Vermont. Trees are normally
bare and temperatures much cooler than that
in November. 

Up here in Vermont, we've basked, sort of, in a remarkably warm November.

In Burlington, the mean temperature for the month was 43.5 degrees, making this the second warmest November on record.  It was also 5.3 degrees above normal.

Only 1948 was warmer, with a mean temperature then of 44.4 degrees.

I'm sure other weather stations in the Northeast will report they had among the warmest Novembers on record, too.

Things were dry in New England, too. We in northwestern Vermont only had about an inch and quarter of rain in November, when normally we get three inches or so.

Snowfall was lame, too. In Burlington, there was only 0.2 inches of snow, tying for third place the least snowiest November on record. (There's a five-way tie for least snowiest November, a trace)

So far, 2015 in Burlington, the mean temperature comes out to only a fraction of a degree above normal for the year, despite the fact the Earth as a whole is experiencing its hottest year on record.

It's been generally very warm in Vermont since spring. May and September, for instance, were the hottest on record in Burlington. But the winter was very cold, with February being the second coldest on record. March was much colder than normal, too.

Signs indicate that December is going to be warm, too, for New England. In fact most of Canada and at least the northern half of the United States could be quite warm in December. This includes areas in the Upper Plains socked by winter storms lately.

Long range forecasts area always dicey. I take anything beyond a few days out with a grain of salt. However, forecasts for the month of December overall have been incredibly consistent for months, which leads some credence to the forecast.

This December forecast is classic El Nino. We're undergoing perhaps the strongest one on record. When there is a strong El Nino, the northern United States tends to have warm winters. Especially the early parts of winter.

Don't give up on a White Christmas, though. Some signs indicate December is going to be stormy.  You can get a storm just before Christmas that hits amid warmer than normal weather,  but warmer than normal can mean below freezing in New England. Which would mean snow.

Already, the predicted warm, stormy pattern for December is beginning in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast. Freezing rain advisories are up for patches of the Northeast today as a warm front from a storm approaches.

This storm will be mostly rain in the Northeast. One wave of low pressure will go by to the west tonight, and another one will move northeastward along a cold front right through New England Wednesday.

As conditions cool off later Wednesday, the rain will change to snow in the northern New England mountains, and those higher elevations could get a few inches of snow out of this.