When Will Winter REALLY Get Here? (Spoiler: Possibly Around Dec. 9)

NOAA's long range forecast indicates a change to
colder weather in the Northeast (in blue) NOAA
says this forecast is conservative, and the cold
could be stronger and more extensive than shown
here. Only time will tell. 

It snowed a little bit again, as expected, across much of Vermont and surrounding areas last night and early this morning, giving another touch of winter to the landscape.

But with temperatures hovering near the freezing mark this morning and forecast highs in the 40s starting tomorrow and lasting through the week, you might be asking, when will winter really slam us?

Although I don't believe in the absolute accuracy of long range forecasts - those that look ahead more than five days or so - there are some pretty strong signals that the full force of winter will arrive around December 9 or 10.

That zonal, west to east weather pattern I talked about the other day that's been keeping Arctic cold more or less at bay looks like it will begin to break down a few days before that rough December 9 or 10 target date.

The jet stream will buckle, forming a dip centered somewhere near the Great Lakes. That will open the door for Arctic air to really stream into the Plains, Great Lakes and the Northeast. The forecast for the second and third weeks of December can't get much more specific than that because it's so far off.

Nobody is sure if it will feature subzero cold or just moderate chill. I'm sure snow will be in the mix, but there's no way of telling this far in advance if we're talking about light stuff or full fledged snowstorms.

For you winter sports enthusiasts who just can't wait until December 10 or so, remember this is snow in the mountains. Despite the relatively mild forecast, it will be cold enough to make snow at night at most resorts in New York, Vermont and the rest of the north country.

For what it's worth, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has gone conservative with their forecast for after December 9, depicting only a small area of below normal temperatures from the Great Lakes to northern New England.

But with forecasts of the deep dip in the jet stream over eastern north America and abnormally warm air trapped in western and northern North America, NOAA says the cold could easily be more extensive than they're forecasting right now.  And some versions of these long range forecasts for mid-December are classic ones for New England, bringing lots of snow and sustained chilly weather.

One more caveat: I told you I don't fully trust long range forecasts and neither should anybody else. This December 9 or 10 target for winter weather's arrival could still be a bust.  The computer models are in general agreement on this upcoming weather pattern change, but they could still all be wrong.

I'm just giving you a heads up for a potential change, is all I'm doing. So, if you like it relatively mild, enjoy it, for now.