Today's Soggy, Warm, Gusty Storm Playing Out As Expected

12:30 PM FRIDAY UPDATE:



Radar imagery from this morning shows a remarkably long and strong
plume of moisture extending all the way from Nicaragua and Honduras
to New England. Very odd indeed!

Parts of New England and southeastern New York, including southern Vermont, either are or could be in real trouble with flooding later today. 
The reason I'm saying this is because in this region, the amount of water in the atmosphere is at record highs for this time of year.

This raised the potential for some fairly extensive flooding, and in some places it could get nasty.

Flash flood warnings were in effect for much of Connecticut as of early afternoon. Flood warnings are in effect for much of southeastern New York and New Jersey, along with parts of western Massachusetts. .

While the flood watch remains in effect for all of Vermont, there are currently no flood warnings yet. If flooding does develop, it would most likely be in the southern half of Vermont, but could develop anywhere in the Green Mountain State between now and Saturday.

The rain might not be as heavy in Vermont as elsewhere in New England, but there's melting snow and temperatures far above normal. So watch out!

The eastern half of New England is also really under the gun by this high moisture content in the air.

Satellite and radar images are remarkable because they show a plume of moisture extending all the way from Honduras and the tropics, up through Cuba then north into New England. This is extremely weird. Which is why we have the unprecedented amounts of moisture in the air for this time of year.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

A gloomy, wet morning along the Winooski River near the Intervale in
Burlington this morning. Water levels will surely be higher than
this by tomorrow, due to rain and snowmelt.

My dogs were not as enthusiastic early this morning as usual when it came time to go outside to do their business.

They're not fans of drenching, cold rain, so I can't blame them. There was no leisurely sniffing around to see what transpired last night outside. It was go out, run back in. 

I can't blame them. No nice Charlie Brown Christmas Special light snow falling. Just a wind-driven rain. Yuck.

That's our lot for today, folks. As advertised, that warm storm is here.  The forecast from yesterday still stands, so kudos to the National Weather Service in South Burlington and other local meteorologists for getting this one right so far.

Flood watches are still in effect area wide. Total rainfall will range fron three quarters of an inch to around two inches.  East and southeast facing slopes will get the most, western slopes of any mountains will get the least.

With temperatures forecast to soar into the 50s later today, the snow left over in the high elevations and woods will melt fast. So the flood watch is a good idea.  If readings actually manage to get just a touch warmer than forecast, we could be flirting with record highs. The record high today in Burlington is 61, set in 1957. The record high in Montpelier for today is 56 degrees.

Wind advisories stay in effect until 1 p.m. this afternoon, mostly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  After that, winds should diminish some, but stay kind of gusty.

I noticed the top of Mount Mansfield was reporting wind gusts of 79 mph early this morning, so it wouldn't take much for some of those gusts to mix down onto the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Nobody is expecting wind as strong as what they were seeing atop Mount Mansfield  in populated areas, but gusts over 50 mph are a pretty smart bet.

This wind will be localized and sporadic. In some areas, winds aloft won't be able to mix down, so things will be pretty calm. That was the state of affairs in places like Burlington, at least early this morning. Meanwhile, Rutland was gusting to 41 mph.

It still looks like it will cool off to seasonable winter conditions starting tomorrow afternoon. The rain showers will probably end as a few snow showers. A weak system might bring us another dusting of snow Christmas Eve.

Some areas might have a coating of snow on the ground for Christmas, but it won't be like last year, when most places have a half foot or more of powder on the ground.

It has actually been snowier this year leading up to Christmas than last year. Through Dec. 22 in 2017, Burlington had accumulated 20.8 inches of snow for the season so far, compared to 25.2 inches this year.

Of course, unlike this year, there was no big pre-Christmas thaw in 2017, and the snow kept coming. Another 1.1 inches came down on December 23, with 3.5 inches on top of that Christmas Day.

I'll be surprised if Burlington gets an inch of snow between now and Christmas Day, 2018.