What We Hear In Winter Storm Forecasts Depends Upon Our Psychology

A blizzard stops traffic in St. Albans, Vermont in March 2017.

A huge winter storm is socking the Southeast today with heavy snow, sleet, ice and wind. It's a real mess down there.

This most definitely won't be the last winter storm to affect the nation in the coming months. Some of the upcoming storms will obviously hit us here in Vermont - though there's nothing in the immediate forecast.

There's been some interesting articles out there lately about how we hear and how we react to winter storm forecasts (or any kind of weather alerts for that matter.)

We all laugh at the panic we see or think some people feel at the first hint of an oncoming storm. Gotta get the bread and milk! Bread and milk and eggs! It makes you think a snowstorm requires us to make French toast, or something.

That's just one small aspect of it.

Another aspect of winter storms is "wishcasting," as meteorologist, professor and writer Marshall Shepherd notes in Forbes. He's not the first person to come up with this term, but he explains it particularly well. If you're a person who likes snow, you focus on forecast for the deepest snow compared to all the other forecasts. If you hate snow, you do the same thing, although, as Quartz points out, is maybe called "awfulizing."

Says Quartz:

"Cognitive psychologist Dr. Albert Ellis, the pioneer of Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy in the 1950s first coined the term to describe the act of escalation, a situation into the moset negative possible conclusion, often with no concrete evidence to prove its validity."

Here's how it manifests itself in weather forecasts, and the actual storm. Say the forecast called for six to 12 inches of new snow. At your place, you "only" got six inches of snow. The storm prediction was accurate for your area, but you didn't get a foot of snow, so you think it's wrong. People tend to focus on the upper range, and not the lower range, Shepherd points on in Forbes.

We also focus on things that we're not used to. Shepherd lives in Atlanta. For this current storm in the Southeast, there was a mention of snow in the forecast for the Atlanta region, but mostly in the mountains to the northeast of the city.

The much greater threat from this storm in Atlanta was the risk of heavy rain and flooding, and strong winds that could knock down trees and power lines. But all anybody asked Shepherd in the days leading up to the storm was snow. Nobody seemed to care about the wind and rain.

I guess Atlanta is not used to snow, but certainly used to windy, wet storms.

Another area where people emphasize the extreme in winter storms is computer model forecasts and social media. Several days to a week or two before a storm, computer models start to hint at what might happen, but have certainly not pinned down the specifics of the potential storm.

A few computer models almost always spit out forecasts of extreme expected snowfall, ice, wind or whatever.  These forecasts are not realistic (garbage in, garbage out) and are not in line with what most forecasts are calling for.

But people inevitably post on social media the forecasts for the most extreme scenarios. It's great to raise interest and gather clicks and views, but does not do anything to spread accurate information.

Hmmm. It's as if you can't believe everything you read on the Internet. Whodathunk?

Stick to meteorologists you know and trust, and who are not given to too much excitement and exaggeration. You figure out which ones are good soon enough, trust me.

Oh, and that bread and milk I mentioned above? They're bad choices to stock up on ahead of a storm. Milk goes bad if the electricity goes out and the refrigerator dies. Bread doesn't have great nutritional value.

The better choices is to hunker down with, especially if you're expecting a long period of time with blocked roads, no electricity and other hazards, are foods that are nutritious and can be stored without refrigeration or being needed to cook, notes Accuweather. 

Instant oatmeal, mashed potatoes, and cup soups are good, especially if you know you're going to have a supply of clean water. Cans of tuna and things like that are good, too.

You should also have at least a gallon of water per person ready ahead of a storm, with extra water for pets. If you don't know if the water is perfectly clean, you can boil it for a few minutes before using, if you have a heat source. You can also buy purifying tablets at camping stores.

It also does not hurt if you've got a great supply of heating fuel for your home before the storm, and your car and truck should have a full tank of gas.

Of course, these last few paragraphs I've written make it seem like life is a perpetual emergency. As we know, it's not. Just remember this: The next time a winter storm warning goes up for your area,  it's not the end of the world. A little smart preparation, though, goes a long way.