Friday, June 9, 2017

Hot Times Coming To New England, But If You Think 90 Is Bad......

People try to escape the heat in Lahore, Pakistan recently.
Photo from Getty Images
A spate of summer weather is finally heading toward New England, as temperatures over the past couple of days have climbed to seasonable levels, and will go upward even more by Sunday.

Sunday through Tuesday across the Northeast will see highs well into the 80s in most of northern New England, with 90s thrown in from central New England and points south.

Many people welcome the summer heat, though some people who work outside dread it.

Some record highs will probably fall in several cities from the Rockies to the East Coast over the next few days, but this won't be the nastiest heat wave ever

It could be worse, though..

 However, as I perused Dr. Jeff Masters's Catagory 6 weather blog recently, I found news of some truly awful heat elsewhere in the world.

In the blog, guest writer Maximiliano Herrera detailed incredible heat records that hit big sections of the Middle East, east Asia and parts of Europe in late May and early June.

On May 28, the temperature reached 128.3 degrees in Turbat, Pakistan, making it the hottest May temperature recorded anywhere on Earth ever.

Oman and Pakistan had their all time hottest temperatures. Not hottest for the date or the month. I'm talking hottest ever.

In Iran, the temperature reached 127 degrees, Oman broke its all time record high of 123,

Of course, they're used to heat in the deserts of the Mideast and in places like Pakistan and India, but not like this Extreme heat of this nature is very, very dangerous.

For instance, we know at least 10 people died in an extreme heat wave in parts of India this week, and that toll will likely rise.

In Europe, Norway had its hottest May temperature on record with 90 degrees, and Austria also had its hottest May reading on record at 95 degrees at the end of the month.

One weird record high was set at the top of a 15,584 mountain in the Italian Alps when the temperature reached 42 degrees.  Chilly, yes, but still a record high for that elevation.

Enjoy summer!



Thursday, June 8, 2017

Too Many Reasons To Count Why Trump's Withdrawel From Paris Accord Was Dumb

Donald Trump apparently using his fingers to demonstrate
the firepower of his tiny intellect, including in
relations to climate change. 
I've always said the most dangerous people in the world are those who think they are really smart but are instead really dumb.

By withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord Thursday, President Donald Trump proved that point bigly, to borrow a fake word from our Dear Leader.

Heads up: Expect a lot more vitriol from me in this column than you're used to, but I just have to unload.

There are so many things wrong with Trump's "logic" about getting out of the Paris accord that I don't know where to start.

Let's start by pretending that climate change is indeed fake, an falsehood that Trump says is a product of evil Chinese trying to gain economic advantage over the United States, as Trump's paranoia would have it.

I know, I know, climate change is actually real, but go with me here.

By bailing on the Paris Accord, Trump has made the United States less trustworthy on the world's stage, a task he's already been accomplishing anyway.

Since the rest of the world - except the illustrious global leaders Syria and Nicaragua - are on board with the Paris Accord, other leading countries in Europe and Asia are more likely to go it without us on this issue, and anything else that comes up that's important to the world.

This weakens our negotiating position on any number of topics - trade, war, political stability. Trump claims to be this great negotiator, yet he weakened his - our - bargaining position. Nice job, Donald.

"President Trump has turned his back on the world on an issue they care deeply about....This will have repercussions for how other countries respond to the U.S., not just on the climate playing field, but well beyond," said Andrew Light, a senior fellow at the World Resources Institute and a former State Department officials who focused on climate change during the Obama administration.

Speaking of negotiation, Trump claims he will negotiated a newer, better Paris Accord, one that is more advantageous to the United States.

It takes two ( or more) to tango, and already, major countries are saying they're unwilling to reopen negotiations.  What's Donald going to do, talk to himself? Oh yeah, he does that already, at least probably.

Oh, and remember how I mentioned Trump's paranoia about China?  Well, he just handed them a major victory.

As Huffington Post points out:

"'This move from Trump also gives China the chance to "cast themselves as the new champions of globalization,'  says Andrew Small, a China expert at the Marshall Fund think tank.

'Politically, Beijing sees this as a gift-wrapped opportunity to position itself as a responsible global leader at the expense of the United States,' Small said. 'For countries that see climate change as an existential issue - not least the European leaders who are meeting the Chinese PM for their summit this week - closer cooperation with China now becomes a necessity.'"

In other words, Trump is putting the United States out of the loop. And ceding world leadership to countries like China.

Trump claims the withdrawal from the Paris agreement is meant to boost United States business success and job creation.

If that's the case, why did so many major U.S. corporations implore Trump to stick with the Paris accord?  These businesses famously included fossil fuel behemoths like Exxon-Mobil, Shell and Chevron.

PolitiFact had a field day picking apart Trump's nearly fact-free speech announcing the withdrawal from the Paris Accord.

Trump said the pact would create a $3 trillion drop in United States gross domestic product, and we'd lose 6.5 million industrial sector jobs by 2040.

Says Politifact:

"All of these statistics come from a March, 2017 study, prepared by NERA Economic Consulting, that estimates the potential impact of hypothetical regulatory actions necessary to meet the goals of the Paris agreement. The study makes assumptions that gave several economics and environmental professors pause when reacting to the NERA study for ClimateFeedback.org."

I'll say!

The assumptions in the study that Trump apparently bought hook, line and sinker include:

--- That other countries don't make emission reductions in line with the Paris agreement, forcing leading American companies to relocate to other nations.

 -- Industries and static and don't change to adapt to regulations.

--- There is no increase in clean electricity generation compared to a baseline scenario.

In other words, not only does Trump peddle fake news, he also peddles fake studies.

On the bright side, people are starting to get adept at just ignoring Trump, and making end runs around him.

According to Reuters:

"Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg submitted a statement to the United Nations on Monday that over 1,000 U.S. governors, mayors, businesses, universities and others will continue to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement abandoned by President Donald Trump last week.

Bloomberg, who is the U.N. Secretary-General's special envoy for cities and climate change, submitted the "We Are Still In" declaration to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa."

Of course I'm happy Bloomberg is organizing this, and I'm also glad that here in Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott, a moderate  Republican, said the Green Mountain State will also join the coalition to adhere to the Paris climate accord.

It's still shockingly disappointing though, that the supposed leader of the free world, Donald Trump, can't seem to lead anything. If thousands if not millions of people can get ahead of Trump on issues of great worldwide importance, it's really sad.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Finally Some Gorgeous June Weather, But Interesting Things Still Coming (Maybe)

Clouds with a severe thunderstorm in Colchester, Vermont
last week. More strong storms are possible late in the
weekend and early next week.
It was so nice to get up this morning and go outside into a genuinely gorgeous June dawn here in St. Albans, Vermont.

Everything - the trees and gardens - were dripping wet and fragrant from yesterday's soaking rain. The sky above was gorgeous blue, and the day promises to be sunny and dry and perfect.

Yes, most of you were in dense fog early this morning, but you should be in the clear by the time you read this. Or almost everybody, anyway.

Enjoy today, because more "interesting" weather might be on the way. Don't worry, we're not talking about a cold June gloom again, but the weather pattern for the next few days is looking kinda active.

Thursday should be half way decent, too, though we can't rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thundershower.

On Friday, a nor'easter of all things will be lurking off the New England coast. At this point, it's looking like it just might be far enough off the coast to avoid another super cold soaker, but we're still watching it.

In any event, the nor'easter's upper level support will be over New England, so expect a fair number of showers in Vermont and the rest of New England and northern New York Friday into Saturday morning.

Then -- summer returns. However, it won't necessarily be all clear skies.

A "heat ridge" basically a northward bulge in the jet stream, will set up shop over the eastern third of the nation Sunday through at least Tuesday.

That means a surge of very warm and humid air into our area then. Forecasters are very confident of this. Expect 80s, maybe even a 90 or two Sunday afternoon, Monday and Tuesday.

But here's the tricky part. Sometimes, when a heat ridge sets up like this, strong to severe thunderstorms originate in the Great Lakes region and ride along the northern edge of these heat ridges.

We will be on the northern edge of the heat ridge. There is a possibility of strong to severe storms, especially in northern New England, Sunday through Tuesday.  The center of the ridge could be just a wee bit to our west, so the thunderstorms, if they form, might end up blasting down from the northwest on the front side of the ridge.

In these situations, the storms coming in from the northwest, rather than the southwest, can be particularly strong, at least in my experience.

This idea of strong storms is still a HUGE maybe.  I'd still take the idea of big storms Sunday and onward with a big grain of salt.

Perhaps the storms will go further to the north than we think now. Or, enough hot air will "cap" the atmosphere, discouraging the strong updrafts that are necessary for thunderstorms. Or there won't be a "trigger" a weak disturbance in the upper level air flow to get the storms going. It's all a delicate dance as to whether the storms form or not.

We won't know any more specifics until the day of.  In other words, check the forecasts each morning Sunday through Tuesday to see if we're in for any kind of rough weather.

Just count on continued iffy weather here and there going forward.

But enjoy today. Once the fog lifts, it will be the finest possible June day.


Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Man Mowing Lawn During Tornado Is Turning Into Weather Meme Of 2017

Theunis Wellels mows his lawn while
a large tornado spins in the background
last week in Three Hills, Alberta, Canada.
Have you seen the photo in this post yet?

You probably have, but that's OK.  

Last week, a large tornado passed through some open country near Three Hills, Alberta, Canada. As you can see in the photo, as the tornado raged in the background, a buy named Theunis Wessels calmly mowed his lawn.

His wife, Ceclia, snapped the photo, in between entreaties to get her husband to come into the house already.

Hey, you gotta get the lawn work done, right?

According to CBC, Wessels said the tornado was further away from him than it looks in the photo, and that it was moving away from him. "I was keeping an eye on it," he said.

The photo is funny, but still, in a brief serious note, what the guy did isn't safe, as you'd expect.

First, there's a slight chance the tornado could have changed directions, but Wessel is right, it appears by the slant of the tornado it was heading away from him.

But no doubt the tornado was produced by a supercell thunderstorm, which could have touched off another satellite tornado right near him, or suddenly started dropping large, dangerous hail on his head, or zapped him with lightning.

The lawn really could have waited. (Hell, I'm wimping out on mowing the lawn today because there's a steady light rain out there.)

Some people on social media imagined conversations before the photo was taken. Like this imaginary exchange:

Grandma: "Didn't I tell you to mow the lawn?"
Grandson: "But there's a tornado outside.
Grandma: "So is my switch."

This isn't the first time I've seen somebody do something crazy in extreme weather in the name of making the lawn look nice. In the video below, you'll see some oddball six years ago mowing the lawn amid golf ball sized hail.

Must have been painful.

Watch:

Monday, June 5, 2017

New England June Gloom Persisting This Week

It's dark and cool and damp in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard, but at least the Korean lilac is brightening things up a bit
"June Gloom" is usually a coastal southern California thing.

Meteorological setups this time of year often draw low clouds and fog onto the immediate California coast, and you get a bunch of grey, coolish days.  

This year, the June Gloom is a creature of New England, for different meteorological reasons.

A series of sluggish storm systems in the upper levels of the atmosphere have given us here in New England extended visits since early May, and we're contending with another one now.

The reason for these slow storms and extended spells of cool, grey weather largely has to do with a persistent ridge of high pressure near Greenland, which has blocked storm systems and made them linger over or near the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada.

The latest one will keep us cold and dark at least hrough Tuesday, and there will probably be a few pockets of heavy rain in some areas mixed in with persistent drizzle and light rain and fog.

Some extra instability in the atmosphere could set off some heavier downpours in northern New York, and strong, wet east winds could create some fairly heavy rain in parts of central and southern Vermont.

The caveat to that is, it's a little hard to pin down precisely who might get up to two inches of rain in heavier downpours. Just keep an eye out for minor flooding in a few spots because of this potential for heavier rain.

During the middle of the week, the upper level low will probably slowly sink toward the south and east, which would gradually help improve our weather. This increased sunshine and warmth will start in southern Quebec and move slowly southward.

Improvement in southern and eastern New England might be delayed until Friday or the weekend. We'll see.

There are signs that early next week, we could get a brief sunny heat blast, perhaps a little like the one we had in mid-May, to give us a break from the June Gloom.

Saturday, June 3, 2017

Texas Flash Flood Aids In Extinguishing Car Fire

How to put out a car fire during a Texas flood.
Flash flooding struck the Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas area on Friday, closing quite a few roads, stranding cars and causing the usual flash flood havoc.  

There were no fewer than 81 rescues of people stranded in flooded cars, and lightning set off five house fires i the Dallas area, says the NBC affiliate in Dallas.

In the video below, the flooding sort of had a silver lining. A car caught fire in a flooded parking lot, and a Texan found a nice weather-related way to put out the fire.

Watch:

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Lots Of Vermont Severe Weather Reports Wednesday; Today Is Quieter

If there was a (slightly) unexpected dearth of severe thunderstorms Tuesday, we more than made up for it Wednesday as a band of strong to severe thunderstorms hit pretty much the entire state of Vermont.

Although reports of wind damage were common, the real story with this one was the hail. That's not a surprise.

Temperatures aloft, several thousand feet overhead were quite chilly for this time of year. Which helped make the storms prolific hail producers.

As you can see in the photo with this post, you could see a bluish tint in the clouds as the thunderstorms approached. (I took the photo in this post as the storms approached Colchester, Vermont.)

When you see that bluish, greenish hue, you know it's going to hail. A few moments after I took that photo, it hailed a LOT. Mostly pea and dime size, but there were a few nickels and even a couple quarter sized chunks thrown in.

So much hail fell that the ground was still white in spots around Colchester nearly an hour after the storms passed.

I don't yet have time to post video of the storm. I'll try to do it in the next few days.

Also several thousand feet overhead, winds were pretty strong. The thunderstorms were able to tap into those winds and bring them to the surface. That's why we had so many reports of trees and wires down. 

Today will be much calmer, with only a few widely scattered light showers this afternoon.

The weather will remain generally unsettled for the next week or so, with an almost daily chance of showers.