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| An image of what the beast of a noreaster is forecast to look like on Sunday. |
Conditions were already sort of starting to go downhill Saturday morning and the disturbance that will give birth to the explosively forming nor'easter hasn't really formed yet.
It's still over the eastern Great Lakes, setting off snow showers and a few heavy snow squalls in places from Pennsylvania, western New York and Ontario.
The disturbance that will form the nor'easter is very energetic, so there's ares of blizzard conditions in those regions already.
That disturbance will, as expected, move east and fade today as the new storm gets going off the coast of New Jersey.
As it does so, the disturbance has so much energy that it will probably touch off a line of intense, gusty snow squalls, possibly accompanied by thunder, in the Mid-Atlantic states today. Such big energy is rare for this type of storm in the formation stages and is reminiscent of a very cold version of the spring storms that can cause severe weather in the middle of the country.
Light snow is spreading across the Northeast. Where I live in northwestern Vermont as of 8:30 this morning, it was already miserable out. Light snow was falling the temperature had barely risen above zero. South winds out ahead of the eastbound disturbance are gusting to 25 mph, and there's a lot of blowing snow.
That south wind will bring temperatures only up to the mid-teens today, then as we all know, temperatures will totally crash tomorrow.
All the blizzard, winter storm, wind chill, coastal flood warnings and all other advisories that were in effect for the weekend in the Northeast are still in place
It's still going to be a very dangerous storm, especially Sunday, when things really wind up.
FORECAST CHALLENGES
Eastern New England is still under the bullseye for this thing. That's where they'll get the deepest snow and the strongest winds.
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| The disturbance that will touch off the massive nor'easter in New England was creating bursts of heavy snow in Ontario Saturday morning, a testament to the potential strength of this thing. |
The entire Northeast is going to be miserable and dangerous on Sunday, though, with blowing snow reducing visibility, even in areas that only get a couple inches of new snow.
Winds outside the blizzard zone in New England will still be strong enough to cause scattered minor damage and power failures.
The potential power failure are ominous considering how cold it's going to be.
There's still a lot of questions as to where the heaviest snow bands on the northwest flank of the storm might set up.
As was the case yesterday, snowfall on the coast of Massachusetts is the biggest question. The heaviest snow might set up right along the shore, from Portsmouth, New Hampshire down to Boston and a little south of that.
That will mean about a foot and a half of snow. Or, the heavy snow band could set up just a few miles to the east, meaning offshore. That would mean much, much less accumulation. As little as six inches.
People who live in the blizzard warning zone are understandably confused by the widely varying snowfall predictions among various weather forecasters, meteorologists and the media.
The wise thing to do is not get too hung up on the snowfall accumulations from this storm. That'll end up being an interesting exercise later for meteorologists on how to, or how not to forecast storms. Kind of a learning experience
For the general public, i.e. most of the rest of us, any way you slice it, two inches or two feet of accumulation, this is a dangerous storm no matter what.
Here's what the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Taunton, Mass. (near Boston) have to say about this in their forecast discussion:
"Just a slight shift west or east up to the time of the storm can make a huge difference that can lead to angst and agony among fellow meteorologists.
It's not easy and (we) can understand everyone's frustration. Aside, we are reasonaby confident that the eastern half of southern New England will experience significant, if not life-threatening impacts."
Widespread areas of eastern New England are still under the gun for wind gusts of 50 or 60 mph, with gusts to 75 mph or so out on Cape Cod and the Islands. This will blow the immense amount of snow already on the ground into drifts of many feet tall.
The heavy snow on roofs, plus the pressure from the strong winds could cause structural damage. Power outages will be a problem, which is dangerous, given the extremely low temperatures.
Visibility will be zero, so it will be very easy to get stuck and or/lost out in the snowdrifts. The dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills could easily be fatal for anybody stuck outside, as frostbite and hyperthermia can come on in as little as 15 minutes.
You can see why the National Weather Service says this storm can be life threatening.
Shoreline flooding is another hazard. The flooding won't be as intense as in the late January blizzard. Areas severely damaged by that late January blizzard, places like Scituate and Marshfield, Mass., face new damage from storm surges and battering waves.
The way this storm is set up, places like Cape Ann and Plum Island on the North Shore are also particularly vulnerable.
MAINE, CANADA
It still looks like eastern Maine, and in Canada, parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are going to get the worst effects of this monster storm. Winds will gust to 60 mph and up to two feet of snow will come down in these areas.
Coastal flooding could extend into Nova Scotia, including the Halifax area, says Environment Canada.
The Gulf of St. Lawrence could get interesting, says Environment Canada: "Strong ice pressure and ice pile up are possible Sunday night and Monday along the north facing coastline of the Gulf of St. Lawrence
Sounds awful.
As I mentioned, people in New England and the rest of the Northeast outside the blizzard warning zone are up for a tough Sunday.
Stay home there, too. Lots of blowing and drifting snow, and dangerous wind chills.
There's more winter trouble to come after this storm, but really. Let's get through this first.
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