Wintry Rest Of The Weekend For Vermont, Much Of Rest Of Nation

This is just one model of the potential storm on Sunday and Monday.
This run of the European model dumps a foot and a half of snow
on the Albany, New York Capital District and interior southern
New England. CAUTION: This is just one run and one model. I pretty much
guarantee the storm won't play out like this, but it gives an idea of
where the early thinking of where the storm might focus. Note
that it could go further north or south than this, or be stronger
or weaker than this.  Time will tell.

The well-heralded second, stronger storm of the Thanksgiving week is gathering strength this morning over the western half of the nation as part of a coast-to-coast ride that is providin and will continue to provide lots of ugly weather for most of the nation.

 It's a wide ranging, large storm, so almost everybody gets in on the action. 

After coming ashore in Oregon the other day as a powerful, deep windstorm, this one settled into the Southwest on Thanksgiving, dropping lots of rain, firing up strong thunderstorms and flash floods in southern California and Arizona.

There was even a tornado warning early this morning for parts of the Phoenix metro area.

This storm is also dumping boatloads of snow in higher elevations. Some snow even came down in not-so-high elevations.

Interstate 5 - The so called Grapevine in the mountains east of Los Angeles, shut down yesterday due to heavy snow and many stuck cars.

The storm is gathering itself, and will cause major trouble today and tomorrow through a huge area of the western and central United States.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings extend from Arizona, through the central Rockies and into a big, big portion of the northern Plains.

To its south, severe weather and possible tornadoes could break out in and around Louisiana Saturday.

This type of storm track usually has the action going by to our west and we Vermonters get a squirt of warm air ahead of the storm before the inevitable cold front with the storm comes through.

Not this time. The storm will take an unusual path. Instead of continuing on toward the Great Lakes, it seems the storm will take an abrupt right turn once it gets to about Nebraska. Then it will head east or even a little south of east  toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, where a new storm will develop, and turn into a pretty typical nor'easter.

There will be a nasty stripe of snow and ice north of the storm's path. It's not a fast mover, either, so there could be time to drop a lot of precipitation where it concentrates itself. 

It's unclear how far north the snow will get given the storm's kind of strange path Southern and central New England have the potential at least to get quite a dump.

Here in Vermont, the south could get a lot and the north would largely miss out.  Computer trends with this storm have trended a bit south, so if that prediction sticks, northern Vermont would only get a little snow Sunday night and Monday.

But, that's no guarantee.  If the storm jogs just a little north, the whole state could get a good dump of snow out of this. No promises yet either way.

OTHER ISSUES

Before we get to that, note that there's areas of freezing drizzle in Vermont this morning. If you've headed out to the silly Black Friday store buster deals, don't hurry too much. Roads are slick in spots.

Plus, whether or not we get snow in Vermont later Sunday into Monday, it's going to be wintry cold again. After a brief break in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, we're stuck back in the early start to winter.   It's going to be a long one, folks.

Quick Wednesday Update: Thanksgiving Travel OK In Vermont, Not So Elsewhere

Travel probably won't be this bad on Thanksgiving in Vermont, but
watch out for some slick spots, especially Thursday morning, as
snow showers bluster through Vermont. 

Thanksgiving travel conditions this year won't be perfect in Vermont, but unlike in many other parts o the nation, it won't be that bad around here.

Not bad, but not perfect, either.

Yesterday was the warmest day since November 1, and we got to enjoy some sunshine, too.

That's pretty rare for this time of year. The sunshine is pretty much over for awhile, except we will have some fading sunshine this morning as the next storm moves in.

The precipitation will be in the form of rain when it arrives this afternoon and continues well into the evening. The bright side to that is it won't be freezing rain, as temperatures will stay well above freezing during the bulk of the precipitation.

Things will be a little trickier for you on Thanksgiving Day if, like me, you are traveling over the fields and through the woods to grandmother's house or whatever.

By morning, the rain showers will have mostly changed to snow showers. There will be slick spots on the roads, especially the higher you go.  For instance, that high spot on Interstate 89 east of Montpelier could get rather snow covered and icy.

Lower elevations, like in the Champlain Valley, will have some slushy areas, too, but this isn't a huge deal. Just take it a little more slowly than you normally would and you'll be fine.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says Thanksgiving snow accumulation will range from nothing to a dusting in most valleys, with one or two inches when you go a little higher.

The potential storm on Sunday is still a wildcard. It's unclear which direction it will take once it reaches the East Coast. We run the risk of having a snowstorm Sunday into Monday, but we just don't know for sure yet. The whole thing could even miss, for all we know.

Check back Friday and Saturday for updates.

"Historic" Oregon Storm Could Have Vermont Effects, Too

When the national map of the National Weather Service home page is
very colorful, you know it's stormy and there are lots of hazards.
This year, just in time for the Thanksgiving travel week.

Our stormy Thanksgiving week continues apace in the United States as two large storms continue to have a big impact on travel and in some cases, just the day to day life for people.

Fellow Vermonters might be asking me what the hell I'm talking about, since the weather Monday was so mellow, and nothing special is going to happen today in the weather department.

 (Burlington, Vermont made it to 50 degrees Monday, which is no big deal for this time of year, but still the hottest day since way back on November 4.)

But, as noted yesterday, two big storms are affecting other parts of the United States, so us Vermonters are kind of getting spared this time.

 The first storm coming across the United States is a strong one, the second one even worse.

There's a remarkably broad strip of the central United States stretching from Colorado and Wyoming all the way to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan that's under a winter storm warning for the first storm. A blizzard warning is up for parts of Colorado.

 I guess my in-laws over in Yankton, South Dakota are going to have a white Thanksgiving, since they are under that winter storm warning. Expect four to nine inches of snow there, with winds of up to 40 mph. Ugh.

Another big area just to the south of this storm is under high wind warnings and wind advisories.  Also, a few severe thunderstorms and a tornado or two could pop up today in the mid-Mississippi Valley today.

For us in Vermont, this first storm won't be too bad. We'll get a decent slug of rain Wednesday afternoon and night. Falling temperatures on Thanksgiving will change the rain to snow showers, but accumulations won't be all that much -- maybe a couple inches in the mountains.

It will be quite windy Wednesday night and Thanksgiving with this storm, so there might be isolated power outages. But it won't be anything close to what we had to deal with in that epic Halloween storm a few weeks back.

Then it's that "historic" storm in Oregon.  A powerhouse of a tempest is coming ashore in Oregon today, with hurricane force gusts along the coast and heavy inland snows. In many areas of Oregon and northwestern California, this has the makings of being among the worst storms in decades. Power will be out for some people in that region through Thanksgiving.

This storm will remain very powerful as it crosses the Lower 48 between now and Sunday. Expect severe weather in the South, and blizzardy weather in the northern Plains and lots of wind in between.

For us, this storm has an uncertain future. Some computer models have the storm producing another snowstorm for Vermont on Sunday. Other models take it too far south to give us much of anything, and a few models take it far enough north to give us mixed precipitation.

Stay tuned, is what I always say.

Winter Update And a Strange Norwegian Guy Embraces Winter, With The Help Of Vodka

As this projected weather map shows, two very strong
storms on Wednesday will disrupt Thanksgiving
travel across much of the United States.

Yesterday's storm in Vermont, as expected, pulled a few surprises.  Central Vermont, as expected, got two to four inches of wet snow, sleet and slush.

However, the light snow and rain that forecasters thought would develop in the Champlain Valley never materialized.

From Burlington north, it was a dark, gloomy Sunday with a heavy, thick overcast, but no precipitation fell. (It gave me a chance to do a little work outdoors, which was nice.)

That storm's gone, but it looks like Thanksgiving week travel is going to be a challenge for much of the United States.

The first storm will travel from the central Rockies, through the middle of the Plains and into the Great Lakes Wednesday.  This will lay down a stripe of heavy snow from Denver to Minneapolis to the northwestern Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday. That will cause a lot of problems and flight delays for sure.

Here in Vermont, that storm will give us a slug of of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by mostly light snow, gusty winds and cold weather on Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile a beast of a storm is due to crash ashore in Oregon Tuesday night with its own package of strong winds, snow and rain on the West Coast.  The storm will reorganize over the southern Rockies and then emerge over the Plains late in the week, so the trip home from wherever your going will be a challenge, too.   It looks like that one will be a big, disruptive coast-to-coast storm.

No rest of the weary.

So, with that in mind, I found this odd little video from a guy in Norway who is a bit enthusiastic about the onset of winter. Certainly more than me.

Clad only in black underwear, he cleans off his car, drives to a frozen bath tub, cuts up the ice with a chain saw and relaxes in that icy tub.  It's apparent that copious amounts of vodka are helping with this. And for some reason he's got a little doll to help him out with this adventure.

In other words, DON'T try this at home.  But the video is oddly entertaining nevertheless. Watch:

Watch Those Snow Squalls Today! And Then Bundle Up

Don't be these people. A snow squall caused this pileup in
Pennsylvania last year. One person died and
several were injured. If snow squalls threaten,
be very careful on the highways, or better
yet postpone travel until after thd squall passes.

Some of what you're reading here today is similar what you saw yesterday, but it bears repeating: Watch out for those snow squalls today!   

I get nervous when snow squalls are coming in, especially on a busy travel day like this, the day before Thanksgiving. They are a recipe for highway pileups.

As I've said before, when a snow squall arrives things instantly on the highway go from dry and clear to no visibility in blinding snow and suddenly icy roads.

All those cars and trucks screaming down the highway at top speed tend to smash into each other when then encounter snow squalls and the result is those big awful and often tragic multi-vehicle pileups you often read about in the winter.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington already has a special weather statement out alerting us to the possibilit of snow squalls today. Some lighter snow showers had already worked into northern New York and far northwestern Vermont by 7:30 a.m. this morning.

The NWS office will likely issue snow squall warnings for specific areas during the course of today. If you hear such a warning for your area, try to delay travel until the squall passes. You don't want to be caught out in those things.

If you're already on the road, do what I plan to do. If you see a squall coming at you or you get a warning, pull off the highway into a safe place. Much like summer thunderstorms, snow squalls are intense, but almost never last long. Let it blow over, then carefully get back on the roads.

Those roads will be icy, but at least visibility will have improved once the squall passes. And what I call the Salt Shakers, those state highway trucks, usually appear right after squalls to plow and put down grit to make the roads safer.

Just as in summer thunderstorms, not everyone will get a snow squall today. But they will be numerous enough to be a concern.  Since squalls don't last long, most places will only get one to three inches of snow today.

Generally speaking, the snow squalls today are most likely late this morning across northern New York and from noon to perhaps 4 p.m or a little after in Vermont. The rest of New England can expect scattered snow squalls into this evening.

As today's National Weather Service snow accumulation forecast
map shows, most of us will only get 1-3 inches of snow today,
but most of that will come down in short, very heavy
bursts during snow squalls. 

Still, that continues the trend of this year's "Snovember." While not breaking any records to speak of, it's been much snowier than average.

Burlington, Vermont, for one example, has had 10.6 inches of snow so far this month. That puts us. 8.2 inches above normal for the month and 7.9 inches higher than average for so far in this young winter season. We're off to a good start in the snow department.

We're still expecting that intense, near record cold to come in tonight and Thanksgiving Day behind those snow squalls. As a reminder, Burlington's coldest Thankgiving had a high temperature of 19 degrees.

The current forecast has temperatures in Burlington fallling to around 16 degrees by midnight tonight and staying at or under that level until at least noon on Friday, so we have an excellent shot of experiencing our most frigid Thankgiving. Oh joy!

It's going to be pretty breezy tonight and tomorrow, too, so wind chills will be painful - certainly below zero. If you're brave enough to participate in one of those "Turkey Trots" the famous five or 10K local running races we have scattered about, either bundle up or blow it off. It's a bit dangerous

It's still looking somewhat warmer, but wetter going into the weekend and into the first part of next week. It'll be warm enough so that much of the precipitation will come down as rain in Vermont's valleys. At least that's the way it looks now. Stay tuned!

We Might Have The Coldest Thanksgiving On Record

ABC News gives us this forecast for wind chills on
Thanksgiving Day. Ugh. 

People might associate the words "cold turkey" with quitting smoking.

But this Thanksgiving, all you will want to do in New England is quit being outdoors.

We're setting up for what looks like the coldest Thanksgiving on record. Data is slightly hard to come by, because Thanksgiving comes on a different date every year. But people have compiled some of this, and it looks like it will at the very least be brutal.

Add in some gusty northwest winds, and it will be awful. By the way, if you're silly enough to be going to the Macy's Thanksgiving Parade in New York, expect temperatures at parade time to be around 20 degrees.

Yeah, better watch that one on TV.

Nighttime lows might not a huge number of records over Thanksgiving as but daytime "highs" might.

For instance, here's what the The Weather Channel has forecast:

CITY                        FORECAST HIGH               RECORD LOWEST HIGH
New York                          26                                                26 -- 11/28/1901
Boston                               22                                                24 -- 11/28/1901
Providence, RI                  22                                                28 -- 11/28/1996
Philadelphia                      28                                                30 -- 11/28/1996
Burlington, VT                 17                                                19  -- 11/24/1938


In some areas in the far north, say the Adirondacks, the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine, high temperatures might not crack 10 degrees.

By the way, for comparison's sake, the normal high temperature in Burlington this time of year is in the low 40s. In mid-January, in the depths of winter, normal highs are in the mid to upper 20s.

Before we get to the cold, we've got snowy Thanksgiving travel trouble to talk about. In most places, snow accumulations won't be all that much, but the snow will probably put a monkey wrench in some holiday travel.

Today, it's snowing lightly through much of New England, except in the far south, where a cold rain is coming down. A few places in areas like southern New Hampshire might get as much as four inches of new snow.

On Wednesday, the cold front that will bring in the brutal Thanksgiving cold will also touch off some snow squalls. Snow squalls are particularly dangerous on roads, where there will be a lot of traffic as people rush to get to their destinations.

Visibilities in snow squalls drop to nothing in an instant, and roads ice up just as quickly. I worry about the risk of some of those big pileups you see on the news when snow squalls hit. This risk is in effect throughout much of the Northeast tomorrow. That includes here in Vermont, folks.

The best guess for the timing of the snow squalls at this point is noon to 2 p.m. in the Champlain Valley and 2 to 5 p.m. in central and eastern Vermont.

Chances are we'll get a bit of a break from this winter siege toward Saturday and especially Sunday and Monday. The weather won't exactly be nice, and in fact will barely rise to normal levels. Conditions will also be unsettled Sunday and Monday, with a risk of rain and wet snow.                

Thanksgiving Week Weather Will Feel More Like Christmas Week: Brrr!

Early morning Black Friday is bad enough. Up here in Vermont, temperatures
will be near 0 Friday morning. No Black Friday sales for me, thanks!
It's not worth it.

As we head over the hill and through the woods, or something like that, to Thanksgiving feasts, we here in New England will feel like we're forgetting to bring the Christmas gifts.

That's because the week will have the wicked chill of deep winter, the kind you get around Christmas time, not the vaguely chilly but still reasonable air we're used to around Thanksgiving.

Plus, there will be small additions to the persistent early season snow cover, a snow cover that's not going away anytime soon.

Today will be the "hottest" day of the week, with temperatures in many valley locations actually sneaking a little above freezing for a time. It will still be ten degrees colder than normal for this time of year, but there you go. Enjoy today's "heat."

A sneaky but weak coastal storm will get going in southeastern New England tomorrow. It's no blockbuster, but still good for two to six inches of fresh powder across interior Massachusetts and Connecticut, southern New Hampshire and far southern Vermont. A couple favored locations could get up to eight inches in that neck of the woods.

Northern areas of New England could pick up an inch or two of fluff from some passing snow showers on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, it will be starting to turn colder yet as a strong Arctic cold front blusters in. Careful on the roads on that busy travel day: The cold front will be accompanied by snow showers that could easily slicken the roads and dump another one to three inches of snow on us.

Thanksgiving Day will be dry, but it will be one of the coldest Thanksgivings on record. Highs temperatures across most of Vermont and the rest of the North Country will only get to the teens, and lows that night will go down into the single digits either side of zero.

Which would be another of many good reasons not to go out to the Black Friday sales. Who the hell wants to wait outside in an intensely cold, dark, windy parking lot for big box stores to open? I'm sure some people do, but I'm staying away from that.

There are signs it will turn slighly warmer next weekend, but it won't be anything resembling an Indian Summer. It will just be less cold

No Bad Weather This Thanksgiving; But 1950 Great Appalachian Storm Shows How Bad It Can Get

Storm surge Southport, CT during the Great Appalachian
Storm of 1950.

As advertised, the weather across most of the nation this Thanksgiving is mercifully quiet. It can get pretty darn stormy this time of year, so we're lucky.

There have been extreme Thanksgiving weekend storms in the past that really gummed up the works.  I remember when I was a kid, a 1971 Thanksgiving storm dumped more than a foot of snow across much of the Northeast, including here in Vermont.

But the granddaddy of Thanksgiving weekend storms was the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950, which on this date that year was just getting its act together.

A strong Arctic cold front passed through the middle of the country on this date, brining temperatures to record lows in many cities, including Chicago.

A storm formed along the Arctic front, which happens quiet commonly. But this particular storm had all the ingredients to form one deadly, remarkable and scary storm. There was record cold on the west side of the front, and record warmth to the east. With extreme upper level support, it allowed the storm to attain extreme levels. We haven't seen anything like this since.

On the cold, west side of the storm, the problem was snow, and lots of it.

The temperature contrast was pretty intense. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania got 30.5 inches of snow as temperatures there held in the single digits. Just to the northeast in Buffalo, New York, it was in the 40s with no snow.

In that warm sector on the east side of the storm, the wind was incredibly intense. The weather set up was not too different than the one that created our severe wind storm in late October. But the 1950 set up was much more intense than this year's, and so were the winds.

Digging out from the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950

Winds gusted to 94 mph in New York City.  The peak gust in Newark, New Jersey was 108 mph. Concord, New Hampshire endured a gust to 110 mph.  Bear Mountain, New York reached 140 mph. Here in Vermont, gusts over 70 mph were widespread and common.

You can imagine how many trees and power lines fell across the Northeast. A million or so people had no electricity for days.

The intense winds caused a nasty storm surge along the East Coast which caused severe flooding. Ocean water breached a dike at LaGuardia airport, flooding runways.

The weather station in Bridgeport, Connecticut was inundated with five feet of water. In some areas of Long Island and Connecticut, coastal destruction was even worse than during the Great Hurricane of 1938.

In the end, the Great Appalachian Storm killed 160 people and caused the greatest damage of any United States storm up to that date.

Bet you're glad there's nothing like that in the forecast for this weekend.

Traveling For Thanksgiving? Looks (Mostly) Great Nationwide

Fortunately, for the vast majority of Americans, Thanksgiving
travel won't look like this this year because there are
no large storms on the horizon.

It seems like every Thanksgiving, when people are traveling all over the country to talk turkey with their far-flung families, there's a big storm mucking things up in much of the nation.

Not this year.

Most of us are going to have a quiet Thanksgiving travel week, but of course there are a few exceptions.

Broadly, there is a general west to east air flow across the country, with no big southward dips or northward leaps in the jet stream.

That means no big storms can form, since there's no real opportunity for a wannabe storm to scoop large amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. And there's no big opportunity for Arctic air to plunge way south, which would set up a temperature contrast to spawn a big storm.

Instead, there are just little moisture-starved features zipping along, mostly along the northern tier of the United States.

That means not much precipitation, if, anywhere in almost all of the nation. It'll be rather chilly or the most part in the northern third of the country, but not extremely cold. The south and west of the country will be generally warm, especially in the southwest, say, southern California, Arizona and those areas, which could see record high temperatures over the Thanksgiving holiday.

Many of us will tune into the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York, and conditions look good there, too. At parade time, it will be sunny and chilly, with rather light winds so the giant inflatable characters in the parade will behave and not blow away.

One trouble spot would be the Pacific Northwest, where on onshore flow will probably bring a fair amount of rain and mountain snow, which would affect road travel and perhaps delay flights Wednesday.

It looks like some Gulf of Mexico moisture will head toward Florida so the Sunshine State isn't lookintg particularly sunny this Thanksgiving.

On Sunday, when a lot of us will be traveling back home, it looks like the same weather pattern will be holding, so I don't expect huge problems then, either.

Locally, here in Vermont, a cold front will zip on through, mostly Wednesday morning. We'll get some rain showers, changing to snow showers, especially in the mountains. There might be a few slick spots, mostly in the higher elevations, but no big mess.

Thanksgiving Day itself (when I travel from St. Albans to Rutland, Vermont) will have quiet weather, so if you have to drive somewhere in the Northeast, don't worry.

Safe travels, everyone and Happy Thanksgiving week!

Big Thanksgiving Gift To Vermont Skiers? (Winter Storm Watch Added For Mountains)

Rina Knapp snapped this photo of a skier
at Mad River Glen, Vermont after a
snowstorm in October. The snow has
since melted, but it's coming to the
Vermont mountains in a big way in the
next few days.  

UPDATE: 3 p.m. Friday:

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has now issued a winter storm watch for central Vermont, especially for areas in and near the Green Mountains with elevations of above 1,000 feet.

As noted in my earlier information, below, there will be some snow even in the valleys, which will lead to a tricky Monday morning commute.

The winter storm warning extends from Sunday morning all the way through Monday. This snowfall will last a long time, giving plenty of opportunity for a lot of snow to accumulate, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, and the summits.

The only thing that will cut back on total snow accumulations will be relatively warm ground, made that way by unusually mild weather in recent days, and continued very, very warm weather for this time of year today and tomorrow.

Still, many areas at elevations over 1,000 feet will get four to eight inches of snow by the end of the day Monday. Some places above, say, 2,500 feet in the western slopes of the Green Mountains could easily get more than a foot.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if isolated spots, like Jay Peak, end up with two feet of snow.

Northern New York, including the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks, are also under the winter storm warning.

I'm very concerned about the commute to work Monday morning everywhere in the region, including the Champlain Valley around Burlington. It'll get below freezing, so wet snow will freeze on roads to form a very slick ice.

Expect crashes and epic delays on roadways. I'm guessing most of Interstate 89 will turn into a parking lot Monday morning.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:


Back in October, heavy snow in the Vermont  mountains prompted some die hard skiers to hike up the slopes to take advantage of up to a foot of new powder.

Warm weather has melted all that, and skiers and riders are itching to go at it again, especially after last winter's very lackluster season.

It looks like these skiers and riders are about to get a pre-Thanksgiving gift.

It's balmy now, and will stay that way through Saturday, but things are about to change, hugely, as they say.

The storm that's causing the upper Midwest blizzard this morning will redevelop over New England Saturday night then largely stall over southeastern Canada later Sunday and Monday.

This will set up a wet, cold northwest air flow that promises what could be lots and lots of snow in the mountains.

Unlike in October, some of the Vermont, New York and New Hampshire ski resorts will be open over the Thanksgiving holiday, so skiing and riding will be that much easier.

It'll snow for a long time in the mountains. Probably from Sunday morning through Monday night. I would not be surprised to see places like Jay Peak and Stowe pick up a foot or more of snow near the summits. Mid-level elevations I imagine would pick up a good four to eight inches.

Plus, it will be more than cold enough for resorts to make snow Sunday through Wednesday.

This wintry weather comes at a price, as it always does. Some snow will accumulate all the way down in the valleys, including the Champlain Valley, which has not had any real accumulations of snow yet this season.

It won't amount to much, maybe an inch. Or even a little more in spots. Nobody is yet used to driving in snow. Hell, we didn't even get much practice doing that last winter.

The roads Monday morning could be dicey on the commute to Burlington and other Champlain Valley towns and cities.

This would inevitably lead to stupid people doing stupid things in their cars on icy roads. Be prepared to sit in backed up traffic for a long, long time Monday morning if the forecast plays out like I think it will.

Southern Flooding Biggest Threat From Thanksgiving Weekend Storm

Forecasts call for three to eight inches of rain
in a huge area of the southern Plains through the
weekend (depicted in red on map) 

We're still on track to have a stormy Thanksgiving weekend in much of the western and central United States, with a variety pack of snow, wind, ice, sleet, snow, thunderstorms and especially flooding.

The storm has already been making its way through the far western United States, with more than a foot of snow in parts of California's Sierra Nevada mountains, which frankly need the moisture.

To give a sense of how energetic this storm is, the community of Bend, Oregon received about 14 inches of snow, and four inches of that came within three hours, says The Weather Channel.

Bend is on the eastern side of the Cascades, which normally block moisture from places like Bend. The place is semi-arid. On average Bend gets about two feet of snow in an entire winter, and they're about two thirds there with just one storm.

Eastern skiers are salivating over the Rockies, because they've already gotten some snowstorms and many resorts in the northern and central Rockies can expect another 12 to 18 inches of snow out of this.

Where I live in Vermont, we got just a dusting of snow yesterday and no significant snow is in the forecast through the weekend. Skiers and riders here are dying for a taste of the Rockies, let me tell you.

The storm will emerge out into the Great Plains later today and especially Thanksgiving, and that's where the real trouble begins.

And it's to a great extent Sandra's fault.

Who the hell is Sandra?

Glad you asked. Sandra is a late season hurricane that formed this week off the western coast of Mexico. It's very late season. According to Dr. Jeff Masters in his Weather Underground blog, only six tropical systems since 1949 have formed in the eastern Pacific after November 18. Two of them were this year!

Rick formed a week ago out there there but sputtered to its death when it moved northwestward over colder water and high upper level winds and fell apart.

Sandra is a powerhouse. It had 85 mph sustained winds this morning and is expected to rapidly strengthen in to perhaps the strongest hurricane for so late in the season in that region of the world.

Sandra will encounter strong upper level winds and start to fall apart tomorrow and especially into the weekend, but still might make landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm -- the latest on record.

Blame El Nino for all this. It made the water off Mexico unusually warm, which helps feed tropical storms.

Since Sandra IS supposed to weaken into just a big patch of moisture in a couple or few days, why am I making such a big deal out of it?

Again, glad you asked.

This big plume of moisture from Sandra will feed into that storm I talked about that's moving into the Plains.

Combined with the wetness the storm will already be drawing off the Gulf of Mexico, we'll get a very big area of torrential rains Thursday into Sunday, especially in northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and in most of Arkansas.

I'm talking four to eight inches of rain, possibly locally more, so you can why flash flood watches are already flying for that region. It's been wet there to begin with, so it wouldn't take all that much rain to cause flooding.

By the way,  Dallas, Texas needs only about three inches of rain the rest of this year to make 2015 its wettest year. Dallas will probably get more than three inches of rain in just this one storm.

North of this potential flood zone, a broad stripe of freezing rain, sleet and snow will break out from the Texas panhandle all the way northeastward to Wisconsin and upper Michigan. That's a HUGE area to have ugly driving conditions on a holiday weekend.

Most areas won't have enough freezing rain to bring down an enormous number of trees and powerlines,  but the roads sure will be icy.

An exception to the few trees and powerline down prediction might be the Texas panhandle and parts of Oklahoma, where ice could accumulate up to a half inch thick. That's more than enough to break branches and wires

So yeah, yuck.

By the way,  up here where I live in the Northeast, we stay out of this. We'll get some rain Friday night, changing to some scattered snow Saturday, but as I said, there won't be nearly enough rain to cause flooding, and snow, in the few places it does accumulate, won't amount to much at all.

It Can't Be Thanksgiving Without A Big Messy Winter Storm

Near zero visibiity in snow and blowing snow at
Chicago's O'Hare airport Saturday. A new winter storm
could cause more Thanksgiving travel headaches this week. 

It's Thanksgiving Week!

Which means it's over the hill, and skidding into the ditch and slipping and falling on the way to Grandmother's house we go.

It really is something of a Thanksgiving tradition to have a nasty winter storm sock much of the United States during this busy travel period and there's no exception here.

In fact, one of the few places in the U.S. that won't get icky weather is the Northeast, which had a snowstorm last Thanksgiving. Go figure.

Winter storm warnings and watches were already flying this Tuesday morning or a huge swath of the northern and central Rockies as the storm sweeps in.

In the far western United States, this is going to be a cold storm, with snow levels descending to as low as 2,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada foothills. So travel will be difficult, and not just in the high passes through the Sierra. Strong winds will make matters worse.

On the bright side, winter storm warnings are up for the northern half of the Sierra Nevada range, which will add a bit to the snowpack. The winter snow accumulation is important to ease California's drought.

The snowpack was at record lows this spring, summer and early all, so any accumulation up there is good. Even if you can't actually drive through the Sierra Nevada mountains to get to your Thanksgiving destination. They're expecting a foot of snow up there in those mountains, which isn't huge by Sierra standards, but they'll take what they can get.

Aflter plowing through the Rockies with its snow and wind today and Wednesday, the storm will emerge into the Plains states Wednesday and Thursday.

This one is going to be different than the power house storm that brought tornadoes to the southern Plains, a blizzard further north and howling winds to a huge section of the country.

The storm won't be particularly strong, and will really take the form of a slow moving cold front with waves of low pressure (small storms) rippling northward along it.

That's a setup that would bring a nasty mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain over the holiday to a broad section of the country's middle. It looks like the best chances for several inches of snow at least run from Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Many of those places are recovering from a remarkably heavy snowstorm last Friday and Saturday.

Areas just to the east of that, maybe Kansas, parts of Nebraska, southern Iowa and into parts of Wisconsin and Michigan might get a nasty dose of freezing rain out of this. Great! Icy, impassable roads, highway pileups, broken trees and powerlines and power failures. What fun!

Luckily, in most areas threatened by freezing rain, there might not be heavy enough precipitation to cave in all the trees and powerlines. It might be mostly an icy and dangerous highway kind of thing.

In most of these areas I've just talked about, it'll probably start as rain, transition to sleet and freezing rain, then to snow before ending around Friday.

Ahead of the slow moving cold front, I'm not thinking there will be many severe storms or tornadoes like some of these early winter storms. There might be a few rambunctious thunderstorms, but the main story will probably be flooding rains.

Northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and much of Arkanasas appear most under the gun for flash flooding as many inches of rain are anticipated as the strong, slow cold front trudges through during the holiday.

They're worried a bit about flooding in and around Chicago, too. Between the foot of snow that will be rapidly melting over the next couple of days and an expected one or two inches of rain out of this storm, creeks, streets and other low spots could go under water.

Details of this forecast will undoubtedly change, but the broad brush picture is this: If you're driving or flying through any part of the country west of say, Buffalo or Knoxville or Pensacola,between now and the weekend, expect possible delays, a need to establish a Travel Plan B, and being late getting to your destination.

Storm Departing; Widespread Shoveling To Start Thanksgiving

Via Twitter: Josh Elniger captured
this nice image of the snowstorm during
thunder snow Wednesday in
Mt. Pleasant, N.Y.  

Look at it this way: You're probably going to consume a LOT of calories, this Thanksgiving Day.

So you might as well burn it off by shoveling.

In the eastern United States, a lot of people have the opportunity to do just that.

A huge area stretching from the higher elevations of West Virginia and Virginia all the way up through the Northeast to Maine have six or more inches of new snow on the ground this morning.

Most of these accumulations are west of Interstate 95, but a big, big area is covered by this.

So far, judging from incomplete reports, the biggest snow totals are 18 inches near Paw Paw, West Virginia and 16 inches in Orwell, Vermont. So you can see how widespread this is.  I'm sure we might find bigger storm totals once all the reports are in.

The storm is departing now. There is some lingering snow falling across northern New England, but in other areas, the roads are being cleared for travel today. So maybe you can still make it to your Thanksgiving feast.

I talked about shoveling to burn off calories, but be careful. The snow in most places, except in northern New England north and west of Albany, N.Y., is very wet and heavy.  Shoveling it will be a lot like shoveling wet cement.

If you're over the age of 50 and/or not in great shape, you'd better let someone else clear the snow. You don't want to have a heart attack. Or destroy your back.

A bigger problem is power failures caused by the heavy wet snow bringing down trees and power lines. AccuWeather reported more than 300,00 outages in New England early this morning, with 148,000 or so in New Hampshire alone.

I can't imagine they'll be able to restore power to everybody today, so that really screws up Thanksgiving feast plans. What, build a bonfire in the backyard and cook the turkey in that? I don't think so.

Via Twitter: Geoff Pattern photographed this
weather related crash Wednesday in
Towamencin, Pa.  

One interesting thing about this departing storm is it went a little more to the west than expected.

Most nor'easters like this have something called a "deformation band" which is a band of heavier snow well northwest of the storm center, near out outer edge of the precipitation shield.

This storm had a well developed one, running from northeastern Pennsylvania, through central New York, curving to near and northwest of Albany, then into western, central and northeastern Vermont.

Albany, N.Y, in this heavier snow band, got 9.6 inches of new snow, making this one of the city's Top 10 biggest November snowstorms. 

In this band, a lot of places had more than 10 inches of snow. Just to the northwest of this band, amounts tapered off dramatically.

Burlington, Vermont, just on the outer edge of this band of heavier snow, got 8.4 inches of accumulation. At my house in St. Albans, 24 miles to the north of Burlington, I barely got three inches, and communities just 5 to 10 miles northwest of my house could barely muster an inch or two.

For the rest of the holiday weekend, it's looking pretty quiet in the Northeast, with just some small storms with scattered rain and snow showers moving through.

An exception might be coastal Massachusetts, where one of those small storms could gather some strength, and moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, to dump a few inches of snow late tonight and Friday morning.

That situation is uncertain, but should be watched.

Other than that, time to go play in the snow.

Yep, That East Coast Storm Looks Even Worse Than Before

The Weather Channel's take on snow accumulatin
from Wednesday's anticipated storm.  

Winter storm warnings are flying in a broad stretch of the East Coast, from the mountains of North Carolina, through parts of the heavily populated areas of the Mid-Atlantic States on into New England.

The storm as of Tuesday evening was gathering strength around Florida, and will make its way up the coast Wednesday.

As I noted this morning, Wednesday is the biggest travel day of the year, so this will really screw things up. Especially since it's hitting such a large area, and a very populated area.

With any coastal storm, slight changes in the track of the storm could have a big time effect on how much snow will come down.

Suffice it to say, if you don't have to travel anywhere in the eastern United States on Wednesday, don't. Easier said than done, I know, given the holiday.

I guess the best thing to do is give a state by state breakdown of impacts.

Florida: Very heavy rains are hitting much of the northern half of the state this evening. Flood warnings, advisories and advisories are up for wide swaths of the state.

The threat of flooding will continue tonight and into Wednesday morning, but things will clear up during the day Wednesday as the storm heads northeast. Look for a nice Thanksgiving Day.

Georgia: A lot of rain is hitting the state. A flood watch is in effect for coastal regions into Wednesday morning. Clearing is expected later in the day.

South Carolina: Heavy rain is due tonight and Wednesday morning, but no major problems are expected, except near an iffy dam in the southwestern part of the state, which could fail and cause some downstream flooding

North Carolina: Several inches of snow could accumulate in the mountains of western North Carolina, especially at elevations above 3,500 feet on Wednesday, especially early in the day.

Virginia: The northwestern third of the state is under a winter storm warning Wednesday. Three to six inches of wet snow is likely at elevations below 1,500 feet above sea level, with 6 to 10 inches at higher elevations. Travel problems are likely in these areas.

Maryland: Winter storm warnings are up for the western half of Maryland Wednesday. In those spots, four to eight inches of snow is forecast Wednesday, with the heaviest snow between 9 a.m and 2 p.m., says the National Weather Service.

Lesser amounts are forecast in the central parts of the state, where a winter weather advisory is in effect. The winter weather advisory covers Baltimore and just west of Washington, DC.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast.

Delaware: Rain, heavy at times is due Wednesday, causing local ponding and flooding of urban streets. The rain will mix with snow, and there could be some slick spots.

Pennsylvania: The southeastern half of the state is screwed on Wednesday. Look for four to eight inches of heavy, wet snow during the day.

Here's an excerpt from the winter storm warning in Pennsylvania:

"Anyone with holiday travel plans Wednesday should complete travel no later than 7 a.m. Wednesday to avoid any significant weather delays... or travel after the roads are cleared on Thursday. Heavy wet snow will probably obscure some road signs. There is a chance the wet snow could knock down a few tree limbs and result in power outages."

Oh, joy!

New Jersey: Six to 12 inches of snow is likely in the northwestern third of the state. The winter storm warning in that region is in effect from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. Wednesday. Again this will be heavy, wet snow.

A winter weather advisory for lesser amounts of wet snow is in effect along a stripe from Camden to Trenton to Newark.

New York: The bullseye of this storm for the Empire State will be in the Hudson Valley from Albany to just north of New York City. Eight to 14 inches of snow is likely, with heaviest coming during the afternoon Wednesday.

Travel will be difficult at best, with very slippery roads, low visibility and possible fallen tree branches and power lines.

A winter weather advisory for up to three or four or five inches of slush is in effect for New York City. The storm should be gone by Thursday, meaning the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade can go on.

On the bright side, the areas south of Buffalo that got seven feet of snow last week in lake effect storms shouldn't be too bad. There's a little snow and freezing drizzle around the area tonight and Wednesday morning, but that should clear out later in the day

Connecticut: Winter storm warning for all but the south coast. Expect 8 to 10 inches of wet snow. Winds could be a factor, with possible gusts to 35 mph.

Rhode Island: Winter weather advisory for the northwestern half of the state, including Providence,  for several inches of heavy, wet snow, and sleet, and winds gusting to 30 mph or so Wednesday and the first half of Wednesday night.

Look for gusts over 40 mph along the coast especially during the first half of Wednesday night

Massachusetts: Arguably the most affected state with this storm. Eight to ten inches of heavy, wet snow, with locally higher amounts. The heaviest snow will come in the afternoon and evening. Lesser amounts of slushy snow are likely around Boston.

A wind advisory is up for the coast below Boston, and on Cape Cod and the Islands. Look for gusts to 50 mph with this storm

Vermont: Small state, wide range of impacts with this storm. Eight to 14 inches of snow in the two southernmost counties of Vermont.

Winter storm warning for the area southeast of a line from northwest of Rutland, to Waterbury, to Lyndonville. Expect five to 10 inches of snow, mostly between Wednesday afternoon and just after midnight Thursday.

Winter weather advisory for a stripe from just south of Burlington to near Newport for three to five inches of snow.

Just a dusting to 2 inches in the far northwest near St. Albans

New Hampshire/Maine: Heavy snow across most of the two states Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. The National Weather Service in Gray, Maine said travel is not recommended during this time period.

That Snowstorm Is Really Going To Screw Up Your East Coast Travel Plans Wednesday

Here's the Weather Channel's take on how much snow
will fall with the upcoming storm.  

Now it's official.

That snowstorm is indeed going to hit along the East Coast Wednesday, and it's going to be a nasty one.

It probably seems hard to believe, given the warm temperatures yesterday, in some places record warm.

Massena, N.Y. had a record high of 70 degrees and Burlington, Vermont had a record 67 degrees for a high. Montpelier, Vermont reported a record high of 64 degrees.

It's still going to be in the 50s today in many areas about to get snow blasted Wednesday. Go figure.

The bullseye of the heaviest snow will be along and west of I-95 from western Virginia, western Maryland, the southeastern half of Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley of New York and interior New England, except the far northwest.

In this area, at least 6 to 12 inches of snow looks like a good bet. A few places might get more.

This is by no means the worst snowstorm the Northeast could possibly get, but it is hitting at the worst possible time, since Wednesday is probably the busiest travel day of the year.

Most of the snow will hit during the day Wednesday, and Wednesday night. The Wednesday night snow will be mostly up toward New England.

It's going to be a heavy, wet snow, which is the worst for driving on. It compacts under car tires into ice, and there's usually a little water on that road ice, making it especially slippery.

It will snow really, really hard, with rates up to 2 inches an hour at times, so visibility will be bad.

And airports in the region? Fuhgettaboutit. I guarantee flight delays and cancellations, which could have ripple effects across the nation.

I wish I had better news, but there you go.

As is often the case with nor'easters, it looks like far northwestern New England and points west and north of that will escape most of the storm.

For instance, in Vermont, a foot or more is a good bet in the far south of the state, and way up by the Canadian border near Lake Champlain, little if any will accumulate.

The storm is intense, but a fast mover, and will be pretty much gone by Thanksgiving Day. By then,  the damage will have been done.

I'm guessing some people are going to miss their Thanksgiving feast, or at least have it sometime after Thanksgiving, because they won't get to their destinations in time.

If you can leave for wherever you're going today, do it. There's no weather problems to report on the East Coast, except for rain and some thunderstorms in the Southeast.

Elsewhere in the nation, things aren't perfect in the weather department either. Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings are up for a broad area of Montana and the northern Plains.

High winds are buffeting the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies, there's a flood watch in the Washington State, and southern California is bracing for possible wildfires. 

Possible Big Pre-Thanksgiving Snow And Other Weather Excitement For Northeast

Pre-Thanksgiving travel on Wednesday could
end up looking like this in parts of the Northeast.  

Yesterday, I said nobody had any idea if a storm would dump heavy snow on parts of the the Northeast, as the forecasting models were all over the place.

It's now seeming more likely some areas will get a lot of snow to screw up holiday travel, but there's still some uncertainty in the details.

Most of the computer models have come around to the idea of bringing a nor'easter close enough to the coastline to dump snow on much of New England, New York State, and probably down into parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Maybe even into western Maryland and Virginia.

Still, those flighty computer models don't have an exact track for the storm yet, so we don't know what areas will get mostly rain, what areas get mostly snow, and exactly how much falls.

At this point, the snow bullseye looks to be the western half of Massachusetts, most of Connecticut, far southern Vermont, the Hudson Valley of New York and far northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.

Those areas have winter storm watches flying for Wednesday into Thursday. The best guess is there will be six to 10 inches of heavy wet snow in those regions. That's the kind that brings down trees and power lines, and feels like wet cement when you try to shovel it.

East of the winter storm watch areas, it might rain, it might snow, it's still uncertain. North and west of the winter storm watch area, it will probably snow, but we don't know how much yet.

This general forecast idea is not set in stone. It could change dramatically as the event gets closer and the computer forecasting models have a better idea of how things in the atmosphere are coming together. Stay tuned.

Obviously, the timing of the storm, Wednesday, when everybody's heading out for Thanksgiving visits, is lousy.

You could take a chance and keep your plans to travel Wednesday, as we could get lucky and things don't turn out that bad. But I'm pessimistic, and so are most other forecasters on this one. There will be icky weather around Wednesday.

If you can escape from work Tuesday and travel that day instead, go for it. There shouldn't be any weather problems Tuesday along the East Coast.

Before we get to the storms, today is turning out to be an interesting day, especially around Buffalo, N.Y., which has lately become Mother Nature's punching bag. They had all that many feet of snow just south of Buffalo, which is melting amid 60 degree temperatures.

Of course, that fast melt leads to flooding, and flooded basements and that sort of thing. Flood warnings are still flying out there.

Plus, there's a high wind warning in western New York today for gusts to 60 mph. The ground is wicked wet and soft from all that snowmelt. The soft ground makes it easier for the wind to topple trees.

The toppled trees cut power, which means the pumps trying to keep ahead of the flooding and the basement water conk out.

Plus, a particular surge of strong southwest winds later today and tonight might push Lake Erie water into the shorelines around Buffalo, flooding areas near the waterfront.

AND there's the chance, just the chance at this point, of more lake effect snow out that way this coming weekend.

Elsewhere in the Northeast, expect lots of wind today, but nothing too damaging. Temperatures will rise into the 60s in many areas, making it seem impossible that a snowstorm is brewing for Wednesday.

As experience shows though, just because it's warm today doesn't mean winter won't hit again soon.

Meanwhile, out west, the Los Angeles area, still under that huge drought, is bracing for possible wildfires between now and Thursday, as very low humidity and strong winds are expected to get going.

The weather is really turning into an obnoxious Thanksgiving dinner guest in many parts of the country.

Why Meteorologists Have No Idea If A Nor'easter Will Screw Up Your Travel Plans Wednesday.

Different scenarios for a possible East
Coast storm Wednesday and Thanksgiving morning.  

Maybe there's going to be a big nasty storm on the East Coast Wednesday into Thanksgiving.

Or maybe there won't be any trouble at all.

You might have heard rumors this morning that a nor'easter would drop a boatload of snow on the Middle Atlantic states and the Northeast when we're all trying to drive over the hills and through the woods to Grandmothers house.

Or down I-95 to her condo in Passaic.

Well, right now that storm is just a rumor. The weather forecasting computer models that predict these sorts of things are all over the place right now.

Some models say a storm will dump six inches or more of snow on eastern and southern New England. Other computer models say there will be a pretty good storm, but it will be mostly rain.

Still other forecasting models say the storm will go out to sea and miss entirely.

So yeah, I'm not really helping with your holiday travel plans at this point, am I?

Here's the problem: We know a weak, but wet and kind of warm storm will come out of the Gulf of Mexico later Tuesday and start heading northeast. We also know a weak, moisture-starved and cold storm will head east and southeast out of the southern Canadian prairies toward the Northeastern United States.

The two storms are on a collision course.

The computer models, and no humans that I know of, can yet figure out where those two storms will collide, and what will happen when they do.

The collision will probably ignite a nor'easter along or off the East Coast.  Will that nor'easter be really strong, and just in the right position to dump a bunch of snow on the Northeast?

Or, Door Number Two, will the cold air package with the storm coming in from the west be a little slow, so the East gets a rainstorm?

Or, we have Door Number Three, in which the nor'easter gets cranking off the coast and almost all of its precipitation misses the East Coast completely.

Only time will tell. The ingredients for this potential storm are still far away, and in large part still over the Gulf of Mexico and off the West Coast.

That means there's not much data for the computer models to work with. Junk, really. Garbage in, garbage out, as the say.

Once we get closer to Wednesday, probably later tomorrow, we'll have better data and a better idea on what to expect toward Thanksgiving along the East Coast.

Sorry to make you wait, but that's the way it goes.

Elsewhere in the nation, if you're traveling on Thanksgiving, the weather will be fairly calm in the southeastern United States, cold in the northern Plains and upper Midwest, rather wet in the Pacific Northwest and dry in the Southwest.

Wednesday Evening Storm Update: Round 2 Now Beginning

If you had to travel in and near Vermont for Thanksgiving, I hope you had a chance to do it this afternoon.

Precipitation turned to drizzle and dense fog
for a time today in St. Albans, making for a gloomy day, but
with better roads. Ice and snow returned as darkness fell.  

There was a break of sorts in the storm, which was expected. Things tapered down to scattered drizzle and fog, and the roads were OK.

If you missed that opportunity, it's too late now, as of 4:30 p.m. Wednesday. The next round of precipitation has moved into Vermont, eastern New York and New Hampshire.

Precipitation has changed to snow as far east as Vermont's Champlain Valley, and the rain will go over to snow by 5 p.m. in central Vermont, 6 p.m. in the east, and probably 7 p.m. in northern New Hampshire

As temperatures drop below freezing, the water on the roads will ice up, as they are just starting to do outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont as of 4:30 p.m. Those icy roads will quickly spread eastward.

If you don't have to drive tonight, don't.  Have some hot chocolate, or make a pie for Thanksgiving dessert tomorrow. It'll be better that way. Trust me.

Those looking for a huge dump of snow are out of luck unless they are along the spine of the Green Mountains and their western slopes in northern Vermont, the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, the Adirondacks and New Hampshire's White Mountains

In most valley locations, expect one to three inches of snow, with only a dusting in valleys in southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and New York's Hudson Valley.

The National Weather Service is calling for 3 to 7 inches in those places I noted will get the heavier snow, but I still think there might be isolated amounts up to a foot around Jay Peak, Smuggler's Notch and Mount Mansfield.

This storm produced one to two inches of rain today across much of northern New England. Flood watches are still in effect for southern and eastern Vermont, but I think those watches will be dropped soon. There have been no reports of flooding.

Snowflakes will still be flying across northern and central Vermont mountains Thanksgiving morning but those will taper off. It still looks like it will be a frigid, windy day.  I guess it's a bad year to have a Thanksgiving feast outdoors.

There is the possibility of another coastal storm around Tuesday, but that's not a sure bet at all. Even if a storm does get going, it's too soon to tell if we'll get rain, snow, or some other combination out of that one. So stay tuned.

And Happy Thanksgiving.

Messy Storm Ongoing, Will Continue Well Into The Night

As of early Wednesday morning, we've entered the warmest part of the big, wet messy storm affecting Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Latest snowfall forecasts from the NWS/Burlington.
Click on the image to make it bigger so you can
read it  

Snow and mixed precipitation has mostly changed to rain, except for some pockets in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

Snow accumulations have been generally a trace to three inches of slush, with more than that falling in parts of the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of New York.

There are still some icy and slushy patches on the roads out there, so be careful driving this morning.

There might be somewhat of a lull in the precipitation in and around Vermont for part of this morning but generally, it'll keep raining a lot for much of the day. Flood watches in Vermont have been extended northward into Rutland and Windsor Counties and in the entire eastern third of the state.

There won't be any severe, Irene-style flooding, but low lying roads could get covered by water in some spots, brooks and streams will come up fast, a few basements might flood, that sort of thing. Just don't drive over any flooded roads and most of us should be fine in that regard.

As we get into the afternoon, colder air will start bleeding in from the west and north. In areas of northern New York, which are still under a winter storm warning for six to 12 inches of wet snow, the precipitation in many areas has briefly changed to a cold rain or a mix, but the snow will return later this morning or this afternoon.

That snow or mix will also start to creep into the Champlain Valley of Vermont this afternoon, too. Careful driving along Interstate 89 and other nearby roads north of Burlington during the mid and later afternoon. Toward evening, the changeover to snow will start to move more quickly across Vermont.

It still looks like temperatures will fall quickly tonight, so water will freeze and the snow falling is definitely still expected to cause some rough travel.

Snow showers now look like they will continue into Thanksgiving morning across northern Vermont especially, so even if you delay your trip to Grandmother's house, you'll still have to be careful on the roads.

Snow accumulation tonight and early Thursday still looks like it will be in the two to five inch range across the northern half of Vermont, but maybe quite a bit more than that along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

I'm still sticking to my forecast of up to a foot around Jay Peak, and maybe close to that at places like Smuggler's Notch and Mount Mansfield.

Bring your winter gear with you on Thanksgiving Day. It's going to be mighty cold and windy.