Severe Weather Threat In Plains, Humid Soakers, Then Changes New England

Great clouds as viewed my airplane window as I made my way back home
from South Dakota to Vermont yesterday. This view was while we were
on approach to Chicago O'Hare. 

I arrived home to Vermont last night after my nearly two weeks at my temporary headquarters in Yankton, South Dakota.

Despite the season, I didn't see much in the way of strong thunderstorm activity out there, which to me is a bit of a disappointment. (Other than that, the trip was awesome. Thanks, Modereger clan!

Of course, today, I am missing a potential severe weather outbreak in the northern and central Plains, and Yankton is under that threat area. The principal worries out there today are big hail and strong, damaging straight line winds.

Which I hope does not damage the flowers I planted at the in-law's house.

A few tornadoes are also possible, too, especially in central North Dakota and central Nebraska.

Pretty large sections of the nation are also prone to localized flash flooding, too, especially in North Dakota, a fairly big area roughly centered on Kansas City, and it the soggy Middle Atlantic States and the Southeast.

Here in Vermont, you might have notice it's rather humid out there this morning. Feels like it's going to rain, doesn't it?

Indeed, most of us will get some rain today. There were already a few showers this morning. There is some partial clearing late this morning and early afternoon. That will help destabilize the atmosphere to produce showers and thunderstorms. Especially since a cold front is heading this way from the northwest.

Often, this type of set up gets us under the gun for quite a few severe thunderstorms, but the ingredients really aren't fully there this time. A few storms in and near Vermont this afternoon and evening could briefly become strong to marginally severe, with gusty winds and maybe small hail, but I don't expect anything anywhere nearly as bad as the May 4 severe outbreak in these parts.

The air is, as I said, humid, and the showers and storms today won't be moving very fast, so a few spots will get some very heavy rain out of this.  It's also possible a few places will get something called "backbuilding" thunderstorms.

That's when a thunderstorm moves into an area. The storm then seems to be beginning to pass by to the east, but new thunderstorms develop on the back edge of the original storm. The end result is one spot gets stuck under a thunderstorm for a prolonged period of time, since new downpours keep forming in the same spot.

This can lead to flash flooding. The threat of flash flooding is low in Vermont today, since it hasn't been particularly wet this month. (unlike most of the rest of the eastern United States.) But, it's still possible there could be water problems in one or two spots in Vermont this afternoon.

This will all clear out tonight, and we're in for a pleasant weekend here in northern New England. The humidity will crash down to really comfortable levels, and daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s, with quite a bit of sunshine.

Enjoy it while you can. Much of next week looks like it will be quite cool and showery, with not much sun. It'll be typical early May weather, not early June. But that happens from time to time before summer gets into full swing. So we'll deal with it.