Great Stretch Of Weather Ending In Rain, Dangerous Heat, Storms

Will the upcoming heat wave be over in time for next Tuesday's fireworks
display in Burlington, Vermont? Will there be thunderstorms around
to interfere? Those questions are as of yet unanswered. 

I've always said that great weather in Vermont never goes unpunished. There's always karma, in a negative way.

So it goes this month. June, 2018 has for the most part been lovely in Vermont.

Now we pay the price. First, some drenching rains (which we actually need so that's not too bad.) Then we have to deal with that heat wave we've been anticipating. Then there's the possibility of strong storms after that.

Add in some uncertainties to the forecast going into the Fourth of July holiday and you will really long for days like yesterday. (70s, sunshine and low humidity.)

First the rains. It turns out the storm system coming in for later today and especially tonight is juicier than many people first thought it would be. Which means it looks like we'll get a boatload of rain overnight and into Thursday morning.

Many of us will have gotten close to an inch of rain by noon Thursday, with some areas getting more than that. You'll hear the roar of the rain on your roof tonight, I bet. Although some might find the rain unpleasant, at least a lot of it is coming at night so as not to disrupt outdoor plans too much.

We also need the rain, at least in parts of Vermont. In northern Vermont, it has barely rained at all since the downpours of June 18. In southern Vermont, there were some pretty good drenchers this past Saturday, but more is needed.

Also, there won't be enough rain to cause any real flooding concerns overnight and Thursday.

Next up is that heat. The forecast hasn't changed from what I outlined yesterday. You'll notice Friday will definitely be warmer and more humid. That's just a foretaste.

The blowtorch arrives Saturday with temperatures up in the 90s. Sunday still looks like the worst day, with temperatures at least well into the 90s with oppressive humidity. The official forecast from the National Weather Service gives Burlington a high temperature of 96 degrees Sunday, but it's still possible it could hit 100 degrees.

The few times it has been 100 in Burlington, the heat has come during periods of dry weather. It's easier for it to get hotter if there's not as much moisture around. It's possible tonight's rain will keep the actual temperature down a bit, though it will raise the humidity during the heat wave. So either way it will be awful.

On the other hand, I asked the South Burlington National Weather Service office about this, and they said Thursday's rains will have largely dried up by Sunday, so it could still reach 100 degrees for only the fifth time on record in the Queen City.

In any event, we're a lock Sunday for heat indexes around 105 degrees, or possibly hotter.

Big heat waves, especially if they're accompanied by high humidity, can trigger fast developing, strong to severe thunderstorms. All you need is a little trigger, like a subtle area of cooler air aloft that can provide lift to the atmosphere.

On Saturday and Sunday, it looks like there will be no such triggers, so I don't expect any thunderstorms those days. (Maybe later in the day Sunday there might be something over northwest New York or Quebec, but don't count on it.)

On Monday, a cold front edging into Ontario and Quebec could be enough to trigger afternoon and evening thunderstorms. It will still be very hot. Maybe a couple degrees cooler than Sunday. But the humidity will be even higher on Monday than Sunday, so it will feel just as bad.

Then more uncertainty arises. By Tuesday, us Vermonters will be very, very hungry for that cold front. Forecasters still don't know when, or even if, the front will make it through.  It'll be nearby on Tuesday, so showers and storms look pretty likely, but the timing and extent of those storms is anybody's guess at this point.

Tuesday is July 3, which is Burlington's big fireworks night. You'll want to keep an eye out for future forecasts if you're going to that event.

On Wednesday, July 4, nobody yet knows where that cold front will be. If we're lucky, it will have moved through, and the sun will come out amid somewhat cooler and less humid conditions. That's only if we're lucky. The front might still be hung up over or near us, which would keep conditions potentially stormy.

If we're really unlucky, the front will stall just to our north, so we'd still be in the heat and humidity, and the risk of strong storms would remain.

Don't make definitive Fourth of July plans yet if those plans depend upon the weather. Because what will happen that day in the meteorology department is anybody's guess.