Saturday, August 22, 2015

Danny Weakens, As Expected, But Then What?

Hurricane Danny while it was near peak intensity
Friday in the central Atlantic Ocean.  
As expected, Hurricane Danny is definitely weakening today out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Strong upper level winds and dry air is taking its toll.

The question now is, will Danny completely fall apart soon, or somehow hang in there.

Right now, Danny is still chugging basically westward in the central Atlantic, aiming toward the northern Leeward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center says computer models disagree. It might just become a weak area of thunderstorms in a few days, or it might hold together as a tropical storm by the time it gets past Puerto Rico and Hispaniola early next week.

If Danny hangs on, there could be an opportunity for Danny to regenerate near the Bahamas next week, we'll have to wait and see on that one.

Danny is a little bit bigger in size than it was 24 hours ago, but it's still very small in area for a hurricane. As I noted yesterday, small sized hurricanes are more prone to rapid intensification or weakening than larger sized storms.

Meanwhile, what was Tropical Storm Kilo in the central Pacific Ocean weakened slightly into a depression, with sustained winds of under 39 mph. But it's still expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

It's a bit of a mystery why Kilo isn't strengthening faster. There's not much in the way of strong upper level winds over it, but Kilo is acting like it is being sheared, which is the word they use for a hurricane that is being ripped apart by strong upper level winds.

It looks like they'll send hurricane hunter planes out to Kilo today to see what's going on.

It's still a threat to Hawaii, but it's predicted path is now slower than it was. Kilo could still possibly affect especially the western end of trhe Hawaii island chain next week.

Back in the Atlantic Ocean, a disorganized storm near Bermuda doesn't seem too likely to turn into a tropical storm or become a big threat to land in the near future.

A couple disturbances that have, or are about to exit the west coast of Africa will have to be watched to see if they form into tropical storms or hurricanes over the next week or two.

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