Friday, July 24, 2015

Social Media Hyping NYC Tropical Storm; Don't Buy It

One forecasting model has a tropical
storm near NYC around Aug 2
but is likely an inaccurate prediction.  
If you hear that a nasty tropical storm is going to strike somewhere near New York City or Long Island on or around August 2, take it with an ENORMOUS grain of salt.

Some computer models come up with some sort of system like that about that time, but a lot of them do not.

Computer forecasting models are pretty good, but are notoriously unreliable when trying to determine  the strength and location or even existence of a tropical storm or hurricane nine days ahead of time.

One recent run of the European model has a tropical storm or hurricane hitting the North Carolina coast, the heading north toward Long Island.

Most of the other forecasting models are not showing this. Something very different, and very likely much more benign, might be along the East Coast then. Maybe there will be a cold front and a few thunderstorms, maybe not. It's way too soon to tell.

I suppose some sort of tropical system could form then near or off the U.S. coastline, but if it does, nobody REALLY has an idea where yet.

Every time a model does predict something like this a week and a half out, some of the more hyper weather geeks on social media go into alarm mode. I guess it's good for Web hits.

To be fair, most of the responsible weather geeks I've seen on social media are giving this tropical storm idea the same kind of skepticism I'm giving here, so that's a good thing.

I suppose for the next week, it will be fun to see if computer forecasting models come around to this idea of a tropical storm, but right now, I'm totally doubting it.

The time to pay attention is just a few days before the supposed storm. If, three days before it hits, the forecasts continue to predict it, then perk up. But for now, go back to your summer doldrums.

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